Background
In the Web3 era, "Meme tokens" have become a concentrated exhibition of community sentiment and speculative psychology. In January 2025, just before taking office as President of the United States, Trump announced the launch of his personal meme coin $TRUMP, which temporarily drove the price to soar wildly, causing shocks in global society, finance, and politics. Within just 48 hours, a small number of on-chain "pioneers" quickly locked in huge profits, while more following retail investors became high-position holders, experiencing the stark contrast brought by celebrity effects and rapid speculation.
Compared to any previous meme coin frenzy, this uproar showcased the victory of speculative capital, as well as the awkward reality of traditional financial order and government ethics being put on the grill.
1. Research Background and Market Overview
1.1 The Rise of Meme Tokens and the Evolution of the Web3 Ecosystem
Meme: From Internet Jokes to Financial Products
Since the birth of internet culture, a large number of memes and subcultural symbols have emerged, gaining explosive social influence due to their humor, charm, or ease of dissemination. Some "memes" are continuously shared or even adapted on forums and social media, gradually evolving into popular symbols among groups.
With the development of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi), the combination of "Meme + tokens" has successfully tightly integrated culture and finance, resulting in a series of phenomenal projects like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. These projects do not necessarily possess traditional technical support or practical applications but rely on the spontaneous enthusiasm of online communities and celebrity endorsements to create extreme market reactions in a short period.
It is worth noting that blockchain is a decentralized database or ledger, where each transaction is jointly verified and recorded by multiple nodes in the network. Meme tokens do not provide payment, settlement, or other functions on this ledger but are more like a "ticket" or "symbol," with their value entirely determined by community consensus.
The Evolution and Dilemmas of the Web3 Ecosystem
Web3 has given ordinary people more opportunities to control financial assets and data, making it easier for small teams or individuals to create blockbuster projects. Anyone can issue their own token based on blockchain smart contracts; as long as they find enough supporters or speculators, they can achieve a "big explosion" in a short time. However, issues such as lack of regulation, frequent bubbles, and varying project quality cannot be ignored.
1.2 The Issuance and Core Highlights of $TRUMP
Issuance Time
The issuance is set for the evening of January 17, 2025 (Eastern Time), as the issuance of cryptocurrencies does not require complex administrative approval. As long as the smart contract is deployed on the blockchain, tokens can be quickly pushed to the market. Therefore, anyone willing can technically create a set of tokens and sell them to the public very quickly.
Team and Token Structure
$TRUMP is jointly launched by companies associated with the Trump family (such as Fight Fight Fight LLC, CIC Digital LLC, etc.), with the team holding 80% of the token share, while the remaining 20% is available for public trading through on-chain liquidity pools or centralized exchanges.
This token distribution model contains significant manipulation potential: if the team concentrates on selling or unlocks early in subsequent stages, the price may experience severe fluctuations in a short time. Ordinary retail investors cannot compete with these large holders, as their holdings are relatively insignificant.
Social and Media Focus
Such token issuance is unprecedented in the history of cryptocurrencies, instantly climbing to the top of traditional media and social media hot lists. Global media outlets rushed to report, and Wall Street financial institutions could not avoid this explosive news; some institutions even began to study whether to include $TRUMP as a speculative target. Meanwhile, a large number of ordinary people are also trying to participate, hoping to get a share in short-term operations.
2. Relevant Data of $TRUMP
2.1 Token Issuance Information and On-Chain Overview
Before formally entering the subsequent chapters of the research, we first sort out the specific issuance information, on-chain data, and community performance of the $TRUMP token. The token was deployed on the Solana chain on January 18, 2025, with the contract address 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN, and launched at an initial price of $0.1824. Within just 36 hours, the price surged to a historical high of $75. As of February 10, after several days of extreme fluctuations, it has fallen back to around $16.
It is noteworthy that the market capitalization of the token soared to $3.2 billion within just a few hours of its launch, and then retraced by 50% within a few days. This dramatic rise and fall fully confirms the typical characteristics of so-called "Meme tokens" relying on public sentiment and cultural connections rather than traditional economic fundamentals.
2.2 Issuance Mechanism and Centralization Risks
Contract Security and Economic Concerns
In the "Token Ecosystem Analysis" section, the smart contract of $TRUMP has passed a security audit, with a risk level rated as "low risk," and the code is fully open source. Although no serious vulnerabilities were found at the contract level, from an economic perspective, its issuance and distribution mechanism exhibits a high degree of centralization: team insiders hold as much as 80%, with only 20% in public circulation, and a phased unlocking method is adopted.
Tips: This distribution model means that if the team or large holders concentrate on selling at specific points, ordinary retail investors or small funds will find it difficult to compete, leading to severe impacts on market liquidity, triggering price crashes or extreme rebounds. This is similar to the situation in traditional economics where "major shareholders manipulate market expectations."
Trading Data and Price Fluctuations
From January 18 to 19, during the "initial surge period," the token's price increased by over 40,000%; followed by a roughly 50% retracement from January 20 to 22, and then a continuous decline starting January 23. As of this research, from February 4 to February 10, a "major reshuffle" occurred, with the price fluctuating in the $15 to $20 range.
According to the liquidity distribution of decentralized exchanges, Jupiter, Raydium, and Orca collectively provide about $420 million in locked value, with an average daily trading volume of about $270 million. Although the token's liquidity does not overly rely on a single DEX (Jupiter accounts for 45%, Raydium 30%, Orca 25%), from the perspective of activity, $TRUMP has lost the high turnover rate of its early explosive phase.
2.3 User Profile and Market Structure
Holding Concentration
User profile analysis shows that 12 large addresses (accounting for 80.2%) control almost all the chips; 156 medium addresses (0.1%~1%) hold a total of 14.5% of the tokens; although there are as many as 142,583 retail addresses, they only account for 5.3% of the circulating supply. This structure reflects a severe "wealth concentration" phenomenon, with most retail investors in a weak position in the market, having minimal influence on price trends.
Trader Characteristics
Data shows that high-frequency trading accounts for about 23%, allowing these accounts to quickly arbitrage or stop-loss during market turbulence; another 72% of users engage in short-term speculation, with only 5% claiming to hold long-term. It is evident that most participants view $TRUMP as a speculative game rather than a sustainable investment target.
2.4 Social Media and Community Heat
Public Opinion Volume and Sentiment Analysis
Statistics show that the average daily mentions on Twitter are about 52,731 times, TikTok video views reach 270 million, and there are 89,651 active users on Discord. Sentiment analysis results indicate that positive sentiment is at 45%, negative sentiment at 25%, with a difference of only 20%, and neutral attitudes at 30%.
In finance, sentiment indicators are often seen as leading or lagging signals for prices:
If negative sentiment continues to ferment, it may trigger collective panic selling;
If positive sentiment refocuses, the price may experience a significant second surge.
The "Public Opinion - Capital Flow - Price" Closed Loop
From a multi-faceted analysis of technical, economic, and community ecology, it can be seen that although $TRUMP claims a high level of contract security, its issuance model and holding structure still amplify market sentiment, making the price more influenced by a few large holders and short-term speculators. The continuous volume of social media exacerbates volatility, forming a cycle of "public opinion - capital flow - price fluctuations."
Reminder for ordinary investors:
In addition to paying attention to large on-chain transfers and unlocking processes, they should closely monitor social media and sentiment indicators to avoid being trapped at high positions or missing opportunities for short-term surges.
3. In-Depth Market Analysis
3.1 Token Technology and Ecological Architecture
Contract Deployment and Chain Selection
Official information shows that $TRUMP is deployed on the Solana chain. Trump himself had previously discussed Bitcoin and Ethereum more frequently but ultimately chose Solana, which seems somewhat unexpected. Rumors suggest that the head of the presidential advisory committee (the "crypto king") has close ties with the Solana team, providing technical support and liquidity convenience for the project.
Solana is known for its high throughput and low transaction fees, making it suitable for large-scale concurrent trading scenarios, which also created conditions for $TRUMP to gather a large number of buy and sell orders in a short time.
Trading and Liquidity Mechanism
$TRUMP trades through Moonshot, decentralized exchanges (DEX), and subsequently launched centralized platforms like Gate.io. Due to the initial rush, and the need for each transaction to be confirmed on the blockchain network, many experienced trading congestion, with some transaction fees even exceeding expectations.
Some reports indicate that the large volume of buying and selling on-chain in the early stages brought high fee income to the Trump team. Some suspect this is also a "water extraction" tactic designed by the project party, as the team may share profits with the platform or mining pool, but specific details have not been disclosed.
Related Projects
Melania quickly followed up with the issuance of $MELANIA, further linking the overall image of the Trump family with cryptocurrency. The Trump family has also made several moves in the NFT space, issuing multiple themed NFTs. Industry speculation suggests that more family members or "trusted allies" may launch new tokens in the future, potentially forming a Trump metaverse ecosystem.
Tips: NFTs (non-fungible tokens) differ from ordinary cryptocurrencies; they represent a unique digital asset, such as artwork or collectible cards, and cannot be exchanged on a one-to-one basis like BTC or ETH. However, they share the same foundation in blockchain smart contracts, relying on market heat and scarcity for pricing.
3.2 Market Performance and Price Frenzy
First Day (1.17–1.18): "Pioneers" Reap Rewards
Within hours of the issuance of $TRUMP, the price surged from less than $1 to $14-$23, attracting significant attention. Professional traders familiar with on-chain hotspots captured this project by monitoring the smart contract address, purchasing large amounts of cheap chips before the launch. Some realized profits of several times or even tens of times within just half a day.
The community is generally speculating: "Is Trump's account hacked? This is too absurd." However, the official side has not clarified, which instead makes more people believe that this indeed comes from Trump's team, further heightening speculative sentiment.
Peak (1.19): "Listing on Exchanges" Ignites the Final Sprint
Mainstream exchanges like Gate.io announced the launch of $TRUMP spot trading, allowing many American retail investors and even traditional stock market investors to enter more conveniently. Driven by buying pressure, the price surged to a range of $60–$75, with the total circulating market cap briefly exceeding $75 billion.
In just two days, there were at least four hundred addresses on-chain that made profits exceeding one million dollars. Meanwhile, a larger number of new users rushed in at high prices, facing the subsequent crash.
It is important to note that when a token is listed on a major CEX, it often means a significant increase in the depth and trading volume of the secondary market. However, this is also often the "exit opportunity" for early players, as they can transfer the cheap tokens they previously bought on-chain to the exchange to sell to newcomers.
Major Correction (1.20–1.21): "Melania's Gun" + Capital Outflow
At this time, Melania also issued $MELANIA, attracting some funds away, coupled with the possibility that the Trump team was selling at high prices, causing $TRUMP to halve to $35–$40 in just a few hours, with market sentiment quickly shifting from frenzy to panic. Newly entering retail investors lamented that they had "fallen for the president's trick," and dissatisfaction and doubts arose within the community.
Stabilization Phase (1.25–2.12): "Continuous Bottom Testing"
During this phase, the price of $TRUMP gradually stabilized, maintaining between $26 and $16. According to on-chain data, from January 25 to February 12, the token's intraday volatility sharply decreased from over 100% to about 30%, while the average daily trading volume stabilized between $150 million and $200 million. During this period, high-frequency trading activities significantly decreased, with data showing that only about 15% of accounts traded frequently, while the vast majority of retail accounts saw their holdings stagnate, with about 78% of FOMO investors failing to exit profitably in time, indicating they had fallen into a trapped situation.
Additionally, social media sentiment also showed a significant pullback: during the early discussions, the gap between positive and negative sentiment was only 20%, while in this phase, positive sentiment remained around 45%, and negative sentiment rose to about 40%, indicating that the market was gradually shifting from frenzied speculation to rational examination. Overall, although $TRUMP did not completely deviate from the typical path of meme coins rapidly declining after a pump, the data indicated that the market was entering an adjustment period, with capital flows and investor behavior tending toward balance, and price fluctuations gradually returning to rationality.
3.3 On-Chain Data and Capital Trends
Whale vs. Retail Ratio
According to on-chain statistics, 80% is held by the team or associated addresses, with a considerable proportion of the remaining 20% concentrated in a few large holders, resulting in a very high overall control. The vast majority of retail investors have a very low average holding amount, and once the main players make any moves, the price will experience significant fluctuations.
Many latecomer retail investors have an average buying price far above the issuance price, referred to as "trapped at the peak." Some hold onto their tokens in hopes of doubling their returns, while others cut their losses.
Asia vs. America: Time Zone Differences and First-Mover Advantage
The announcement of the $TRUMP contract coincided with daytime in Asia but was late at night in the U.S., and the difference in information flow allowed Asian traders to make the first move, while East Coast investors found that the price had already multiplied several times by the time they saw the news in the morning. Data shows that nearly half of the addresses that made over a million dollars in early profits came from the Chinese-speaking community.
Unlike traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, and blockchain transactions are synchronized globally. Time zone differences often determine fate in short-term markets—Asian mornings often correspond to American late nights, and vice versa. Those who can "watch the market longer" often gain the first-mover advantage.
Trading Volume and "Water Sellers"
Platforms like Moonshot, which focus on meme coins, once surged to the top of the North American app market download charts, and OTC trading was also exceptionally active. Many newcomers found themselves confused about on-chain wallets and exchange processes and sought help from "experts." As a result, some made money through "selling water" by charging teaching fees for "hand-holding you to buy $TRUMP," earning quite a bit in a short time.
Tips: The term "water seller" refers to those who sell shovels and supplies during a gold rush. The same applies in the crypto world: when a large number of retail investors rush into the market, those providing training, technical services, or token evaluations can also make a significant profit. Their earnings are more related to "information asymmetry" than to the rise and fall of tokens.
4. Social Impact and Cultural Analysis
4.1 In Just 48 Hours: The "Adventure Narrative" of a Zero-Sum Speculative Game
Experienced on-chain players often prepare monitoring tools and idle funds, allowing them to quickly enter the market and cash out at high points once they discover a potential project. Some boast on social media about doubling or even multiplying their returns, stimulating more ordinary investors to join, forming a typical "secondary and tertiary handover" chain.
Everyone fears missing the next hundredfold opportunity, even risking everything, selling cars and houses, or mortgaging other assets to raise money to enter the market, with the "get-rich-quick" mentality spreading within the community.
Tips: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) refers to the fear of missing opportunities, leading people to blindly chase rising prices. Meme coin markets often exploit this psychology to create explosive surges, only to suddenly retreat.
Many first-time participants in cryptocurrency lack professional trading or blockchain knowledge, and after hastily entering the market, they either get trapped by chasing high prices or feel lost due to the market's violent fluctuations.
Traditional and crypto media have focused heavily on $TRUMP, producing a large amount of mockery or astonishment in their reports, while serious discussions have been relatively limited. Industry leaders like Bitcoin Magazine and Messari's founder have publicly questioned Trump's abuse of his influence, suggesting that he is using blockchain technology to covertly amass wealth, which not only undermines the confidence of some retail investors but also casts doubt on the credibility of the crypto industry.
5. Risk and Opportunity Analysis
5.1 Major Risks
Legal and Regulatory Risks
If relevant judicial authorities intervene in the investigation, they may order exchanges to delist $TRUMP or freeze related wallets. If the team is found to be involved in insider trading or conflicts of interest, both the project party and investors face significant losses. There has never been a precedent for a "presidential token issuance," and the unknown legal vacuum brings higher uncertainty.
Concentration of Holdings by the Project Party and Potential Manipulation
The team and related large holders control 80% of the tokens, and as soon as they decide to sell, it can lead to a market cap evaporation of tens of billions of dollars within hours. Ordinary investors find it difficult to predict when a sell-off will occur.
The cryptocurrency market is often volatile, and traders lack transparency regarding the team's plans, akin to "blindly following the flight," which can lead to disastrous outcomes.
Market Sentiment and Confidence Collapse
Meme tokens primarily rely on community confidence and sentiment. Once public opinion shifts or other new hot tokens emerge, market enthusiasm can plummet, leading to a stampede-like decline in prices.
Derivative coins like $MELANIA may also "siphon" from $TRUMP, causing investors to frequently migrate between different tokens, resulting in instability across the entire sector.
5.2 Development Opportunities
Traffic Explosions and New User Influx
The popularity of $TRUMP has attracted a large number of traditional finance and novice users, allowing them to first engage with the blockchain ecosystem. Some may continue to explore broader fields like DeFi and NFTs after short-term speculation, potentially bringing more innovation and application opportunities to the crypto industry.
Accelerated Regulation and Compliance Processes
The high profile and controversy surrounding this matter may compel U.S. legislators to directly address the legality of public figures participating in crypto projects, leading to earlier clarification of regulatory rules for the crypto market.
If compliance can be implemented, it may help the industry eliminate scams and Ponzi schemes in the long run, improving overall quality.
Continued Expansion of the Meme Track
Political and business celebrities may follow suit and "issue tokens," further promoting the prosperity of the meme track. If investors can seize the explosive nodes of popular themes in advance, short-term returns can still be considerable. However, with the celebrity effect and social media dissemination, the speed of new token bubbles forming and bursting will also be more rapid.
6. Investment Strategy Recommendations
6.1 Short-Term Strategy (1–3 Months)
High-Frequency Trading and On-Chain Monitoring
If you want to get involved with $TRUMP or similar meme coins, you need to have professional on-chain monitoring capabilities to track whale addresses and the team's token transfer activities in a timely manner. Once you discover large transfers or unusual sell orders, you must quickly make buy or sell decisions. Here are common monitoring methods and tools:
Blockchain Explorers
Solscan / Solana Explorer (for $TRUMP on Solana)
Etherscan (if there are cross-chain bridges or other related contracts on Ethereum)
By entering the contract address or whale wallet address, you can view transaction dynamics and balance changes in real-time.
Professional Data Analysis Platforms
Nansen: Provides on-chain label analysis, allowing identification of "whales," "smart money," and other addresses and tracking their operations.
Dune Analytics: Users can customize dashboards for visual analysis of specific contracts or addresses.
DeBank: Aggregates multi-chain asset information, facilitating monitoring of large holder distribution and capital flows.
Social Media and Alert Bots
Twitter / Telegram alert bots (like Whale Alert): Can push notifications of large transfers and unlocking events in real-time, helping investors quickly learn about potential sell-off or pump signals.
Setting Profit and Loss Limits
Blindly chasing high prices can lead to flash crashes, so it is essential to establish and strictly implement profit and loss strategies in advance to prevent being unable to exit when trading volume suddenly decreases. Specific considerations may include:
Price Triggers:
Profit-taking point: For example, when the price rises 50%–100% after purchase, sell part of the position in batches or all at once to lock in profits.
Stop-loss point: If the price drops 10%–20% (or more) from the purchase point, automatically reduce or close the position to avoid deep entrapment.
Time Triggers:
If a significant event (team unlocking, macro negative news) is expected in the short term (e.g., 3–7 days), consider reducing positions in advance and observing.
Position Management:
Investment in high-risk assets like meme coins should only account for 5%–10% of total funds to avoid excessive volatility in overall capital.
Comprehensive Information Judgment
In addition to large on-chain transfers and unlocking processes, closely monitor the following factors:
Social Media Volume and Sentiment
Is the community heat on Twitter, Discord, Telegram significantly declining or rising?
Are major influencers or KOLs starting to turn bearish or bullish?
Team Announcements and External News
Has the team announced any new unlocking or burning plans?
Have there been any negative news or regulatory pressures related to the project team?
Market Environment
Are mainstream coins (BTC, ETH, etc.) in a state of fluctuation or decline, affecting capital risk appetite?
Are other new meme coins exhibiting a "vampire effect," leading to capital outflow from $TRUMP?
Small Positions, Quick In and Out
Due to the lack of substantial application scenarios for $TRUMP, the price is mainly driven by news or community sentiment. It is recommended to invest only a small amount of funds that can be afforded to lose, focusing on swing trading, and not to have overly high expectations of the project's intrinsic value. The "hundredfold myth" often cannot be sustained for long.
6.2 Medium to Long-Term Strategy (3–12 Months)
Focus on Team Unlocking and Regulatory Trends
Whether the team can quickly unlock their holdings or if there are large-scale OTC sales is key to determining future market conditions. If the U.S. government launches an investigation or legislative constraints, prices may remain low for an extended period. Investors should closely follow relevant policy developments and cautiously assess their holding periods.
Diversification and Value Coin Combination
For those unfamiliar with the meme coin sector, it is advisable to allocate the main assets to relatively mature blockchain projects like BTC and ETH, treating meme coins as a "high-risk sub-track" to experiment with.
As meme coins continue to emerge, maintaining vigilance and conducting thorough information gathering and risk management will help respond promptly to sudden market fluctuations.
7. Future Outlook and Reflections
7.1 Industry Trends: From Speculative Performances to Ecological Reshuffling
Meme Coin Supercycle and Retail Frenzy
$TRUMP may further strengthen retail investors' trust in the "celebrity effect" or prompt more politicians to follow suit and issue tokens. However, high-frequency speculation and volatile price swings can also lead to quicker loss of enthusiasm, resulting in industry reshuffling and differentiation.
Accelerated Collision Between the U.S. Government and Crypto Regulation
The president personally issuing a token forces the U.S. government to confront a new situation: how can officials or candidates profit in the virtual asset space? How do legislative or executive orders apply? This could lead to strict controls over capital inflows and outflows and prompt more institutions to examine the legality and compliance of crypto projects.
Reconsideration of DeFi Ecosystem and Financial Innovation
Cryptofinance can break the high barriers of traditional finance but may also be exploited by a few. Extreme cases like $TRUMP guide the industry to consider: Can DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) enhance information disclosure? Can contract audits curb abuse? How can the public be protected from ruthless harvesting during speculative waves?
7.2 Dual Economic and Social Impact
Economic Aspect
In a very short time, large amounts of capital flowed from other crypto assets into $TRUMP, causing mainstream coins and some altcoins to be "vampired." If retail investors suffer heavy losses, it may trigger a chain reaction affecting overall investment and consumption willingness.
Social Aspect
The collective frenzy and cognitive biases on social media have been amplified again, with many people’s impressions of the crypto industry as a "speculative bubble" becoming more entrenched. At the same time, the public's tolerance for officials "monetizing their influence" has also been tested in this incident.
8. Conclusion and Recommendations
The rise and fall of $TRUMP have shown that meme tokens can trigger unprecedented capital flows while fully exposing the lack of self-regulation and ethical standards in the crypto industry. With the U.S. president personally involved, retail investors have been trapped at high prices due to blind trust, leading to a significant amount of capital flowing to a small number of large accounts in a short time. How to maintain rationality amid speculative fervor and how to devise strategies on the government’s ethical and compliance fronts are pressing issues that the crypto world must consider.
Research Recommendations:
Utilize DAO mechanisms to enhance transparency: Decentralized Autonomous Organizations should introduce community-based risk disclosure and information sharing tools during similar token issuances to reduce information asymmetry for retail investors.
Investors should remember the high-risk nature of meme tokens: While the market may bring short-term windfalls, the lack of substantial value support makes it prone to rapid rises and falls, necessitating strict stop-loss measures and proper psychological expectations.
References
Solana Explorer (Solscan / Explorer.solana.com)
Moonshot platform announcements and trading volume
CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
Trump's official account (Truth / Twitter)
Bitcoin Magazine, comments from Messari founders
LatePost's tracking and analysis of the 48-hour trading process of the event
Beijing Yingke Law Firm on the topic of U.S. public officials and crypto assets
Experiences shared by multiple investors/traders on meme tokens and political coin ecosystems
Disclaimer:
This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or advice. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate.io may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from restricted areas. Please read the user agreement for more information, link: https://www.gate.io/en/user-agreement.
About MemeBox
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