Author: flowie, ChainCatcher

Although Trump has signed the executive order on Bitcoin strategic reserves, more details remain undecided, leading to significant market divergence regarding its future impact. This has made the White House crypto summit, lasting 4 hours and taking place a few hours later, particularly noteworthy. (Note: Closed-door meeting from 2:30 AM to 6:30 AM on March 8)

With the non-farm employment data set to be released at 9:30 PM tonight, the crypto market is bound to be filled with speculation, making it another sleepless night for the Chinese crypto community. This article outlines the important topics or predictions for tonight's White House crypto summit as a pre-meeting reference.

Will Trump Announce More BTC Reserve Details or Positive News?

It is possible, but not much positive news is expected.

The general interpretation of the executive order is that the U.S. government will rely solely on confiscated Bitcoin for reserves and will not spend additional money to purchase it.

However, according to Mint Ventures research partner Alex Xu, the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order signed today is different from the "Strategic Federal Reserve" bill promoted by Senator Cynthia Lummis at the federal level.

The former is at the executive level, while the latter requires legislative approval from Congress.

The signing of the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order today does not mean that the Bitcoin strategic reserve suddenly becomes something that relies solely on confiscated assets without additional purchases.

Currently, there is not much more that Trump can do at the executive level after fulfilling his promise.

There is a possibility of an extreme scenario where he orders the Treasury to directly use the Exchange Stabilization Fund to purchase BTC. This fund is already in existence and does not require additional congressional approval, with the goal of "stabilizing the dollar exchange rate." However, given Trump's style of preferring low-risk, high-reward strategies, this seems unlikely.

Additionally, more details regarding the "confiscated" funds used for reserves need to be disclosed.

Regarding the source of funds, 21Shares strategy director Eliezer Ndinga mentioned on Twitter that, in addition to confiscated assets, fines imposed by crypto enforcement agencies (such as the SEC/CFTC) could also be reused to purchase Bitcoin.

In terms of specific funding details, Galaxy Digital research director Alex Thorn believes that the maximum amount of Bitcoin currently available for reserves by the U.S. government is 88,000 BTC, accounting for only 43% of its current holdings. This is because out of the approximately 198,000 BTC held by the U.S. government, 112,000 BTC must be returned to the exchange Bitfinex.

Crypto KOL @Phyrex_Ni believes that the existing confiscated assets in the U.S. may be sold and converted into BTC. This would mean that the BTC in the U.S. strategic reserves would inevitably exceed 200,000 BTC.

Furthermore, Senator Cynthia Lummis commented on Twitter that the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order is just the beginning. A U.S. Congressman also tweeted that next Tuesday, he will announce significant developments related to Bitcoin policy alongside Cynthia Lummis, who confirmed this by retweeting.

Tonight, it is worth paying attention to whether more details will emerge at the summit.

"Altcoin Strategic Reserves" Still Have Many Unknowns

While the Bitcoin strategic reserve has been tentatively established, there is still much discussion regarding the strategic reserves for ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA that Trump previously mentioned.

Can they be treated as strategic reserves like Bitcoin? Which tokens will be reserved or mentioned? Will there be differentiated policies for different altcoins? Additionally, the scale of reserves and sources of funds remain unknown.

According to a recent report by Reuters, the U.S. government may include Bitcoin (BTC) and four other crypto assets in its strategic reserves.

However, today, White House AI and crypto chief David Sacks retweeted a post by Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter, which interpreted the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order as having a clear distinction between Bitcoin reserves and altcoin reserves; Bitcoin has received formal recognition from the U.S. government, while other cryptocurrencies have not yet received the same treatment.

Many analysts believe that compared to Bitcoin being included in strategic reserves, other altcoins may be categorized under the U.S. sovereign wealth fund established by Trump's order in February. There is a key difference between "strategic reserves" and "sovereign wealth funds." Strategic reserves are akin to national gold reserves, used for economic stability, while sovereign wealth funds are investment portfolios aimed at asset appreciation.

In addition to the four altcoins mentioned, the market will be watching to see if more tokens will be mentioned, especially those based in the U.S.

The summit may also discuss differentiated policies, such as BTC and ETH potentially dominating reserves due to market maturity, while XRP, SOL, and ADA may be held in smaller, speculative proportions or related to specific uses (e.g., XRP for the Treasury payment system).

Additionally, there may be opposition to their inclusion from attendees like Tyler Winklevoss.

Latest Guest List and Associated Tokens, a Major Direction for Market Speculation

Most of the attendees are project representatives and were significant sponsors during Trump's campaign. As attendees, the tokens associated with them are expected to be part of market speculation.

Additionally, the tokens held by the Trump family's WIFI have also seen a general rise recently, which is worth noting.

Stablecoin Legislation Progress May Be the Main Event

Stablecoins can be confirmed as another important topic at the summit aside from strategic reserves. With the Bitcoin strategic reserve already tentatively established, stablecoin legislation may be the highlight of the summit.

David Sacks previously hinted that the summit might focus on how to establish a regulatory framework to ensure risk reduction as adoption increases.

Currently, there are two key bills regarding stablecoin legislation: the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, both aimed at providing a clear regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. The U.S. Congress is rapidly advancing stablecoin legislation but needs to reconcile the differences between these two bills.

Additionally, the market predicts that the summit discussions may explore how stablecoins can support the dollar's dominance, the role of stablecoins in U.S. crypto reserves, and how to expand the use cases for stablecoins.

However, there is currently no concrete news on specific policy progress regarding stablecoins at the summit. If the summit can advance the establishment of a sound regulatory framework for stablecoins, it could be as beneficial as the Bitcoin strategic reserve. Grayscale Investments predicts that it may attract more institutional capital inflow.

Previously, Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev stated that Trump might pass stablecoin legislation within the year.

Crypto Taxation Expected Not to Be Exempt, but May Have Positive Minor Changes?

For crypto users and businesses, eliminating or reducing this tax would undoubtedly lower costs. For the U.S., sacrificing some tax revenue could attract crypto projects and capital inflow, promoting it to become the "crypto capital."

Mike Alfred, founder of Alpine Fox LP, tweeted twice this week that Trump would mention digital asset taxation at the White House summit on Friday. The first tweet suggested an exemption, but after being questioned by many, he deleted it. The second tweet stated that there would be a "significant announcement" regarding digital asset taxation. BeInCrypto also reported that tax reform might be part of the agenda.

However, it seems unlikely that a direct exemption will occur. Adam Cochran emphasized that the president cannot bypass Congress to directly amend tax laws. Satoshi Action Fund co-founder analyzed back in January that completely eliminating crypto taxes in the short term is unrealistic, but some minor changes could be pursued, such as setting a "minimum exemption amount." BeInCrypto reported that simplifying tax reporting for crypto transactions or providing tax incentives could be considered.

Will the FIT21 Bill, Which Significantly Affects Crypto Regulation, Be Advanced?

The FIT21 bill aims to clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC in the crypto market and address key issues such as stablecoins, digital commodities, and consumer protection.

Coinbase predicts that if the White House crypto summit yields positive results, it may promote the passage of the FIT21 bill.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is also participating in this summit, and he may advocate for regulatory clarity to facilitate compliance and innovation in the cryptocurrency industry.

Additionally, other attendees such as Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy and Sergey Nazarov from Chainlink may also discuss regulatory frameworks related to the FIT21 bill.

The FIT21 bill has already passed the House with bipartisan support and is now awaiting further action from the Senate. The market predicts that the summit may become an important node for advancing this bill.

Will RWA, AI + Crypto, and Other Crypto Sub-Narratives Be Mentioned?

If the White House crypto summit explicitly mentions some crypto sub-narratives, it is expected to positively impact that sector and potentially boost the prices of leading tokens.

Currently, market speculation suggests that RWA, AI + Crypto, and other crypto sub-narratives may be mentioned. Crypto KOL @Phyrex_Ni recently speculated that the summit might discuss concepts like RWA.

Although RWA may not be an independent agenda item, they could be implicitly discussed through stablecoin regulation, reserve strategies, and innovation frameworks. Additionally, RWA leader ONDO and LINK have seen significant increases recently, and the founder of Chainlink is also participating in this summit, while the founder of Ondo Finance may also attend.

As for AI + Crypto, this summit is hosted by David Sacks, the "AI and Crypto Affairs Chief," who is a tech veteran from PayPal and Yammer, with a background encompassing AI-driven innovation and financial systems. His involvement indicates that the intersection of AI and crypto may be a prioritized discussion topic. The Street has speculated that Sacks may guide the discussion towards AI applications in the crypto market—such as fraud detection, compliance automation, or risk management.

How Will the Market React? Non-Farm Data Cannot Be Ignored Besides the Summit

The crypto market may experience significant volatility tonight, and contract players should be cautious.

In addition to the crypto summit, the non-farm data and unemployment rate to be released at 9:30 PM tonight are also crucial. According to Jin10 reports, concerns about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth have led the market to digest expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar recently. This means that employment data will become particularly important.

Currently, the market seems to have differing predictions regarding the trend of non-farm data, and combined with the impact of the crypto summit, it is challenging to draw conclusions about the price impact on the crypto market.

With the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order already signed, the market has experienced both declines and rebounds. Amidst the ebb and flow of positive and negative news, investor sentiment appears somewhat fatigued.

Yesterday, based on a price prediction statistic from crypto KOLs after the summit, the ratio of predicted declines to increases was not significantly different, with a slight lean towards declines.

Since the issuance of the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order, investors' views on the future market have also polarized. Therefore, tonight's summit remains full of highlights and speculation, and investors should be alert to risks.

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