BTCStrategic Reserves Have Really Arrived, But It's Different from What Many Expected: Is Trump Just Playing a Game?

Macro Interpretation: The executive order on Bitcoin strategic reserves signed by Trump today is like dropping a silent nuclear bomb in the crypto market. Why do I say this? Because since the second half of last year, the hype around Bitcoin reserves has been significant, yet it turns out to be quite different from what most people expected.

Among the many news reports about Trump's signing of the crypto reserve executive order, this one is the most important: aside from assets obtained through confiscation, the government will not acquire other assets for reserve purposes. I jokingly told my friends that, in simple terms, it means that previously confiscated assets will be treated as reserves, and no extra money will be spent to buy new ones. This is a strategy of not spending a dime and playing a game of deception. Fox News reported similarly to my interpretation a few days ago; if taxpayer money is used for purchases, it would require Congressional approval, which is nearly impossible. Therefore, the final outcome is that there won't be much change; no money will be spent on purchases, and previously confiscated assets will be used as reserves.

This policy, which crypto czar David Sacks called a "gold standard experiment of the digital age," seems to only involve the management of confiscated assets on the surface, but it actually harbors ambitions to reshape the global monetary landscape. As the basement of the Treasury Department begins to tally the "spoils" of Bitcoin, the crypto world is undergoing a test—short-term, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around the $88,000 mark, neither breaking through the psychological barrier of $90,000 nor falling below the support level of $84,000, as the market seeks a new balance point amid policy fog.

The "scalpel-like" design of the executive order is quite ingenious: it avoids the moral hazard of using taxpayer funds while cleverly establishing a national digital asset reserve framework. According to policy details, the Treasury will not only take over the 174,000 Bitcoins confiscated in the Silk Road case but also leave room for converting civil fines into digital reserves. This "war-financing" model allows the U.S. government to act as both referee and player, accumulating strategic assets while combating crime. As the strategy director of 21Shares stated, this is akin to establishing a "fiat currency harvesting machine" in the crypto world—every regulatory crackdown can add ammunition to the digital treasury.

However, the market's immediate reaction is filled with dark humor. Bitcoin's 4.2% drop reveals investors' disappointment with the "no new purchases" policy. This reserve strategy of "wanting the horse to run while not letting it eat grass" has left speculators expecting large government purchases empty-handed. Meanwhile, the overnight crypto market and U.S. stocks formed a "misery index" duo, with the Nasdaq's 2.61% drop resonating with the widespread decline of altcoins. This correlation confirms Grayscale's assessment: Bitcoin's safe-haven properties still need time to settle, and for now, it remains a "follower" of risk assets.

The long-tail effects of the policy are, however, stirring beneath the surface. Among the nine transformative scenarios depicted by Bitwise research, "central banks being forced to follow suit" is the most disruptive. When the U.S. incorporates Bitcoin into its strategic reserves, it effectively installs a crypto engine into the global monetary system, and countries with thin foreign exchange reserves may view Bitcoin as "digital gold 2.0." Senator Cynthia Lummis's hint that "this is just the beginning" further signals to the market the potential for ongoing policy intensification. This "boiling frog" style of regulatory evolution may prove more lethal than direct legislation.

In this contest of national strategy versus market dynamics, the policy neither makes sweeping moves to save the market nor allows a regulatory vacuum to persist, but rather precisely excises the policy tumors hindering industry development. When institutions must submit reports on Bitcoin transfer permissions within 30 days, the dark web black market may collectively lose sleep—this means the U.S. government will establish the world's most powerful on-chain monitoring network.

The dual countdown of non-farm payroll data and the crypto summit injects new variables into the market. Credit Suisse's analysis warns of a "job winter meeting wage inflation" one-two punch, which may force the Federal Reserve to "dance the tango" on interest rate cuts. This uncertainty in monetary policy contrasts with the regulatory signals that may be released at the White House crypto summit. Smart money has already begun to position itself—some institutional investors are viewing Bitcoin as a "Noah's Ark against tariff inflation," as Trump's tariff stick may overshadow traditional safe-haven assets.

This "Dunkirk evacuation" in the crypto world is unfolding: short-term pain is unavoidable, but the establishment of a strategic reserve system essentially issues a national-level credit endorsement for digital assets. When one day the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows a Bitcoin entry, and central banks begin discussing the proportion of "crypto reserve currency," people may recall the spring of 2025—when the U.S. government quietly toppled the first domino of the traditional financial system with an executive order. This quiet revolution is rewriting the millennia-old narrative of value storage.

BTCDataAnalysis:

Earlier today, it was reported that Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and that no Bitcoin stored in the reserves will be sold. According to Coinank data, the U.S. government's public wallet currently holds 198,109 BTC (valued at $16.92 billion at current prices).

However, the maximum balance of Bitcoin available for the U.S. government to use as strategic reserves is only 88,000 BTC, accounting for just 43% of the current holdings. This is because out of the approximately 198,000 BTC currently held by the U.S. government, 112,000 BTC will be returned to Bitfinex. Note: The large amount of BTC held by the U.S. government comes from the investigation into the Bitfinex hack, which occurred in August 2016, resulting in the theft of about 120,000 BTC. Bitfinex is attempting to recover this portion of BTC, which is expected to involve a lengthy legal process.

The Trump administration's establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve has multiple strategic intentions, but its feasibility and actual effects remain controversial. First, the policy positions Bitcoin as "digital gold," aiming to strengthen the U.S.'s dominant position in the digital asset space and attempting to enhance economic security through national reserves. However, of the approximately 198,000 BTC currently held by the U.S. government, only 43% (88,000 BTC) can be used for strategic reserves, while the remaining 112,000 BTC must be returned to Bitfinex, meaning the actual effectiveness of the reserves may be lower than the surface data, and subsequent legal processes may further compress the available amount.

From a policy motivation perspective, the Trump team may hope to gain support from the crypto community through this move, solidifying its political image as an "innovation driver." However, economists generally question its economic rationale, pointing out that the government's holding of Bitcoin faces high opportunity costs, as it cannot be directly liquidated to alleviate fiscal pressure and may increase risks due to price volatility. Additionally, the establishment of reserves relies on confiscated assets rather than proactive purchases, which limits the scale of expansion and requires coordination between the Treasury and the Justice Department.

A deeper challenge lies in institutional contradictions. Although the executive order can quickly initiate reserves, long-term maintenance requires legislative support from Congress, and opposition from traditional financial institutions and conservatives may hinder the legislative process. At the same time, incorporating Bitcoin into reserve assets may conflict with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy goals, as Powell has clearly stated he will not participate in the plan, highlighting the difficulty of policy coordination.

Overall, this policy reflects more of a political symbolic significance, which may boost market confidence and strengthen the U.S.'s policy presence in the crypto space in the short term, but its actual economic value remains to be verified. Its success will depend on the efficiency of resolving legal disputes, the stability of Bitcoin prices, and subsequent legislative breakthroughs, while the election cycle may further weaken the policy's continuity.

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