I. Fundamental Analysis

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Whale Movements: Currently, whales are still in a state of accumulation. Notably, the whale ranked 20th has shown remarkable performance, accumulating another 2,000 bitcoins within a week, with 1,000 of those added just yesterday. The whale ranked 48th added 14 bitcoins, while the 49th added 228. It is worth mentioning the whale ranked 181st, which had previously reduced its holdings significantly and attracted market attention, has now started to slowly accumulate again. After reducing its holdings above $90,000, it began to buy back around $80,000, adding a total of 1,733 bitcoins yesterday. Overall, the movements of whales indicate that the market remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies.

Interpretation of Bitcoin ETF Outflows: Data from the 5th shows an inflow of $22.1 million, which is undoubtedly a positive sign. Prior to this, Bitcoin ETFs had been in a state of net outflow for a long time, and even when there was net inflow, the amount was not significant. This shift indicates a change in the flow of market funds.

However, it is important to note that despite the US dollar index beginning to pull back to 104, typically, when the dollar index falls, Bitcoin tends to experience a rally. Yet this time, Bitcoin did not follow suit and instead experienced a downward adjustment. According to insights from Grok, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of correction and consolidation, not rising alongside the weakening dollar, which is relatively rare in history.

Generally, a decline in the dollar index is often accompanied by a Bitcoin rally, but the current cycle may differ due to a slowdown in institutional inflows, reminding everyone that market changes are unpredictable, and any situation can occur.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: The current price of Bitcoin on the daily chart is $88,195. From a daily perspective, $94,000 has become the peak or high point of this rebound. Yesterday, after Bitcoin rebounded to $92,000, it began a sharp downward retracement, with today’s K-line price at $88,195. The support level for this retracement is the line formed after Bitcoin tested $78,000, which coincidentally is the 200-day moving average, commonly referred to as the bull-bear line.

This line is crucial; once broken, Bitcoin is likely to test the $65,000 - $66,000 range. However, from a short to medium-term trading plan, we can consider entering around $82,000 and exiting near $90,000, as Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation pattern, with higher lows and lower highs, ultimately approaching a turning point—either breaking above $90,000 or falling below $80,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is under pressure from the trend line. This morning, it peaked at $91,000, where the pressure is evident. On an hourly basis, Bitcoin's price trend began to rebound after retracing to $85,000, with intraday support at $83,000 or slightly higher. Today, Bitcoin has reached the low zone of $85,000, so if it retraces to $85,000, a long position can be considered, with upward resistance at the $90,000 - $91,000 - $92,000 range. Of course, if Bitcoin falls below $85,000, it will test lower levels.

Ethereum: The current price is $2,181. From a 15-minute perspective, Ethereum peaked at $2,250 this morning, followed by a long upper shadow and then a long bearish candle that dropped to the lower boundary of the channel, after which it began to rebound to around $2,180 - $2,200.

From the trend analysis, Ethereum is unlikely to break above $2,200 and will likely test around $2,100 next. If $2,100 is broken, the next target may drift towards $2,000. Therefore, $2,100 is the intraday support level for Ethereum, while $2,200 is the intraday resistance level, making the $2,100 - $2,200 range the trading zone for Ethereum today. It is essential to grasp this rhythm.

SOL: The current price is $141, still consolidating above $125. Although SOL shows signs of upward rebound, the resistance at $150 is quite evident, and its overall performance is relatively weak. However, if Bitcoin does not break down, coins like SOL typically do not break down easily either. Currently, SOL is in a weak consolidation pattern, with limited trading space, and students with heavy positions should pay attention to position control.

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