The U.S. strategic reserves are a huge benefit—short-term may be negative, but long-term will definitely be positive.

Many people might expect that this will involve a large amount of buying to drive up prices, treating BTC as a meme, wanting to speculate and then run away, which is like picking sesame seeds and dropping watermelons!

The U.S. strategic reserves previously included oil and gold, which are the most important assets. If the U.S. reserves them, will other countries consider doing the same? How will they view it? Now that Bitcoin is included, I estimate that Eastern powers will definitely reassess—of course, I don't care; the trend remains unaffected.

Can Bitcoin be bought now? Although I have a bearish outlook for a few months—yet I don't even trust my own subjective predictions. From a value investment perspective, Bitcoin at $50,000 to $80,000 will be something you won't be able to buy in the future.

This moment is like BTC dropping to $49,000 through the ETF, coinciding with market fear. Therefore, my view is that the market may not perform well in the coming months, even declining, but if you look at it over a longer time frame, just remember that $50,000 to $80,000 is a good price.

I personally buy slowly and do not sell once I buy—if you ask me whether it will rise or fall next, it’s better to consult a fortune teller. I let AI calculate, and this is what it said.

Based on the latest U.S. policy dynamics and market environment, the predictions for Bitcoin returning to $100,000 and starting a bull market are as follows:

Short-term (1-3 months): Volatile period, need to pay attention to policy implementation details

Policy Implementation and White House Summit

Today (March 7), the White House cryptocurrency summit is about to be held. If the meeting clarifies reserve details (such as the reserve ratio of BTC to other tokens, regulatory framework) or releases signals of international cooperation, Bitcoin may quickly break through $100,000. However, if the policy is vague or congressional legislation is obstructed (the bipartisan divide is only 5 seats), the price may retreat to the $83,000-$86,000 range for consolidation.

Mid-term (3-6 months): Key window period, focus on three major catalysts

Congressional Legislative Progress

If the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act" is passed, clarifying funding sources (such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund) and custody mechanisms (self-built cold wallets or entrusted to Coinbase), it will accelerate institutional entry, pushing Bitcoin to challenge $120,000-$150,000.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

The market expects the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle to begin in 2025, and the release of liquidity may drive Bitcoin's demand as "digital gold." If the rate cut occurs earlier than expected, Bitcoin will benefit from a macro easing environment, returning to $100,000 within six months.

Halving Effect Fermentation

After the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, historical patterns show that price peaks usually occur 12-18 months post-halving (i.e., from April to October 2025). Combined with current favorable policies, the halving effect plus strategic reserves may push Bitcoin to stabilize at $100,000 in the third quarter.

Long-term (6-12 months): The decisive factor for the bull market

Expansion of Strategic Reserve Scale

If the U.S. government continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings through a "budget-neutral" strategy (such as seizing more criminal assets), and the reserve scale exceeds 500,000 coins (currently 200,000), Bitcoin will gain sovereign credit endorsement, attracting global sovereign funds (such as Norway, Singapore GIC) to co-invest, with a market value potentially exceeding $2 trillion, and prices targeting $150,000-$200,000.

Regulatory Framework and Technological Innovation

If the Trump administration promotes clear token classification, it will release technological dividends, forming a "policy + technology" dual-driven bull market.

Risk Warnings

Policy Execution Risks: Congressional gamesmanship and unresolved SEC lawsuits may trigger legitimacy disputes.

Market Manipulation Suspicions: If Trump-associated tokens (such as SOL, ADA) are exposed for profit transfer, it will undermine market confidence.

External Black Swans: Geopolitical conflicts, exchange hacking incidents (such as Bybit being hacked for $1.5 billion) may trigger short-term crashes.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Best Buying Window: If the White House summit releases positive signals, consider gradually building positions in the $83,000-$87,000 range.

Bull Market Start Signal: A breakthrough and stabilization above $100,000 requires meeting three conditions: policy implementation + halving effect + interest rate cut cycle, expected to be achieved from late Q3 to early Q4 of 2025.

Extreme Scenario: If Trump is re-elected and expands crypto reserves to 1 million BTC (goal of the "BITCOIN Act"), combined with geopolitical crises, Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 (according to Standard Chartered Bank's prediction).

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