The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!

After several days without updates, today I see that the market seems to have not fluctuated much from the point when Lao Cui published the article. However, in the past two days, Bitcoin has experienced two waves of fluctuations exceeding ten thousand points, and the overall trend is basically consistent with our previous predictions. Coincidentally, a conference is to be held tomorrow, so today I will rush to provide everyone with some thoughts. Almost all of our layouts are centered around the recent digital currency conference, so to avoid misunderstandings, I must explain to everyone. The conference tomorrow does not necessarily mean that the market will move in a bullish direction. Especially for this round of growth, if calculated from the lowest point, it has already risen nearly fifteen thousand points. From the market sentiment, if the conference had not started, it could be said that this bull market would have shown no signs of rebound in the first half of the year. Especially after breaking the eighty thousand mark, this trend has surprised everyone, including Lao Cui. Although Lao Cui was bearish at that time, such a market condition made it difficult to hold positions boldly; all that could be done was to add positions at the lows. The profits from these long positions can be said to be entirely reliant on luck. If it weren't for Trump's sudden decision, the losses this time could have been exacerbated.

It can be said that the fifteen thousand point increase has almost completely digested the positive news from this conference in the short term. Unless there are specific measures implemented tomorrow, if the positive news is not stimulating enough, the cryptocurrency market will start to plummet. If the previous low can break below eighty thousand, it proves that this year's low may be even lower, which is certainly not good news. Many friends attribute this rise to the small non-farm payroll data, and Lao Cui would like to remind everyone that the current data from the U.S. is not important; small non-farm data cannot drive a growth of over ten thousand points. The increased probability of interest rate cuts has been predicted by Lao Cui before; conservatively, there will be at least two rate cuts this year. As for the reasons, everyone can refer to Lao Cui's previous analysis. Only with two rate cuts can Lao Cui confidently encourage everyone to hold long positions. Do not confuse concepts; as long as there are two rounds of rate cuts, Bitcoin can rise at least ten thousand points, so the current situation of being trapped in long positions or spot positions is just a matter of time before it is resolved. The tariff turmoil will be a continuous blow, and the entire financial industry will be affected to some extent. However, the increase in tariffs is not entirely a blow to the cryptocurrency market; the increase in American income may lead to greater investment in the cryptocurrency market, especially during Trump's term. Interpreting Trump from a human perspective is quite normal; if he does not have a positive outlook on the cryptocurrency market, he will not develop business in this area. All these revenues are genuinely falling into his pocket, and to profit, he will certainly continue to increase positive news for the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, during his term, do not easily short Bitcoin.

Regarding the judgment of Bitcoin's trend, everyone can review Lao Cui's previous thoughts. It can be said that 2024 will almost exhaust the luck of the cryptocurrency market. From the beginning of the year with Bitcoin and Ethereum listing, Bitcoin was pulled from the 3s to the 6s, and then with Trump's rise to power, it caused a phenomenal increase, coupled with the issuance of USDT, leading to an increase of nearly two trillion in market value for the cryptocurrency market. And all of this happened within a year. One must ask what kind of positive news can achieve such a level of growth in the upcoming increases. Everything has its reproductive laws; after reaching the peak, it naturally goes downhill. Looking at the long timeline, only if Bitcoin becomes a world currency can it possibly break the previous growth amplitude. It can be said that at this stage, all the funds that should have entered Bitcoin have basically entered. The world's richest people, including hidden wealthy individuals in the country, have also entered the cryptocurrency market, and even many officials hold Bitcoin. The well-known Americans and we, the two major economies in the world, have basically reserved Bitcoin. Lao Cui really cannot think of any reasons that could lead to what everyone calls a higher point in the future. The issuance of USDT will eventually consume the bubble, and Trump will eventually step down; the road ahead will be exceptionally difficult. It can be said that this year's Bitcoin may be the last phenomenal performance. The current positive news has not been completely exhausted; there is still potential for another surge, including previous predictions that Bitcoin's peak will be between 120,000 and 150,000. If it can reach this year, it basically proves that 2025 will be the historical peak. Therefore, after profiting from this round of long positions, we will enter a long bear market phase again, and everyone must be mentally prepared.

This does not mean that Bitcoin's future is bleak, but rather that its development prospects are limited. Everyone can reserve, but cannot accept Bitcoin becoming a globally popular currency; the attributes of currency cannot be fully transformed. This involves key factors of asset outflow. Simply put, Bitcoin cannot officially be put on the table to meet everyone. The domestic strategy is also straightforward and simple, defining it as a financial investment attribute, not a currency. The U.S. is the same; although its future technological attributes are extremely strong, the biggest problem is still the inability to achieve synchronicity at the high level. The interests involved are not as simple as everyone sees. At least in our generation, we cannot see Bitcoin's true value being recognized; the future path of cryptocurrencies is extremely difficult. Whether it is a concept or an attribute, it has its value, but its value contradicts the high-level interests, which is destined to not be truly realized in our market. For domestic users, there is no need to consider such long-term issues; we only need to think about how to expand profits in this round of bull market. After it ends, we can consider other markets. Contract users are relatively free and can short to make up for spot losses.

Lao Cui's summary: From the short-term capital movements and news perspective, Bitcoin's growth in the first half of this year is likely to peak in March. That is, after this round of digital currency conference, we need to see the most practical strategies that can be implemented, the legal or planned processes, and Trump's support for the cryptocurrency market. When will the U.S. government strategically reserve? Regarding the planning process for the listing of small coins and the specific conditions to be implemented. The latter two cannot be decided in this conference. The most important thing in this conference is still Trump's attitude; his opinion basically determines how much imagination space Bitcoin's growth can have in the future. Setting aside the probabilistic aspects, if Trump directly states that strategic reserves have been put on the agenda, or even can be implemented this year, it would be normal for Bitcoin to rise by twenty thousand points in a day. Once Trump starts to play it safe, and if no actual commitments can be made at the conference, then Bitcoin's growth path in the first half of the year will almost be over. The holding of this conference is the best positive news. Currently, it seems that the cryptocurrency market will still grow, so everyone does not need to worry too much. As long as you entered the market at the bottom, you will almost not incur losses. However, I must remind some newcomers not to cut losses during the market downturn; the best entry timing is only two: within twenty percent loss of entry and between the first and second days of market fluctuations. Many users' cutting losses make Lao Cui feel distressed; it is hard to understand that someone cut losses on long positions below eighty thousand. Lao Cui still holds long positions at eighty-five thousand, and the exit timing will be at the decision of tomorrow's conference, at which time Lao Cui will also notify everyone. For users who have not entered the market, it is best to wait until the market stabilizes before proceeding. Lao Cui still focuses on long positions.

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes the big picture, and does not focus on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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