I. Fundamental Analysis

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Whale Movements: Yesterday, the dynamics of the top 100 whales showed a positive side. Overall, the top 100 whales increased their holdings by 1,047 bitcoins. Notably, the new whale ranked 99 bought 9,757 bitcoins in one go, which undoubtedly sent a strong signal to the market.

Although the whale ranked 48 reduced its holdings by 270 bitcoins midway, most other whales were in a scattered accumulation state. Comprehensive analysis shows that the buying volume significantly exceeds the outflow volume, indicating that, from a long-term trend perspective, whales believe that bitcoin has reached an attractive buying range.

Bitcoin ETF Outflow Interpretation: The performance of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the 4th and 5th was noteworthy. On the 4th, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw an outflow of 100 million USD, and on the 5th, it flowed out 6.9 million USD. From an overall trend perspective, the continuous outflow of the ETF suggests that there may still be downward space for Bitcoin prices in the medium term. A large number of investors chose to redeem, which is not good news for the short to medium-term trend of Bitcoin. Therefore, it is necessary to establish corresponding risk control mechanisms to cope with potential market fluctuations.

Ethereum Prague Upgrade:

Recently, the Ethereum Prague upgrade has attracted significant market attention. Initially, this upgrade was seen as an important driving factor for Ethereum to break through the 3,000 USD mark, with high hopes from the market when Ethereum was priced at 2,800 USD.

However, the reality has not been satisfactory, as Ethereum's price eventually fell to 1,900 USD, breaking below the key support level of 2,000 USD, and the upgrade did not achieve the expected effect of driving the price up.

Currently, Ethereum's price is 2,200 USD. From the current market trend, the overall outlook is bearish, indicating that the hardware upgrade of Ethereum may not drive its price to higher levels as the market expected.

U.S. Non-Farm Data: Tomorrow, the market will welcome an important fundamental dynamic — the U.S. will release the non-farm data for February. It is predicted that the non-farm data will record 153,000 people, higher than the previous value of 143,000, while the expected unemployment rate will remain at 4%, unchanged from the previous value. The release of this data often has a certain impact on the cryptocurrency market, so it is essential to closely monitor the market reaction after the data is released to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: Analyzing Bitcoin's price movement from a technical perspective, the current price of Bitcoin is 90,000 USD. Looking back at the past few days, Bitcoin's price first reached a high of 94,000 USD, then quickly fell to 81,500 USD the next day, and then rose again to 90,000 USD, resembling a roller coaster. From an overall trend perspective, Bitcoin's price has experienced a decline through two channels from top to bottom. If we shift the price trend line downward, we can find a significant support level at 81,500 USD.

However, yesterday Bitcoin's price stagnated around 90,000 USD and failed to reach a new high. At this position, there is a relatively important resistance level formed by a certain slope from previous price movements. Therefore, from the current situation, 90,000 USD is relatively high, and buying at this point is not a wise move. It may be worth considering reducing positions or opting for short selling.

Further analyzing from an hourly level, the resistance level at 90,000 USD is particularly strong. By observing the MACD indicator, we can see that the current indicator is in a slightly divergent state, especially in the price range of 88,000 - 90,000 - 91,000 USD, where the divergence phenomenon is quite evident.

This divergence suggests that Bitcoin's current price movement may face adjustments. If Bitcoin's price breaks down in the current form, it is likely to continue testing the support level near 82,000 USD. Therefore, it is crucial to pay close attention to whether Bitcoin can break through the key resistance level of 90,000 USD. Based on the current market situation, the probability of a breakthrough is relatively low, and risk control must be emphasized.

Ethereum: Ethereum's price movement is also under close scrutiny. A few days ago, Ethereum's price fell below the key support level of 2,000 USD again, then rebounded to the 2,200 - 2,250 USD range. Yesterday, the price rose by 5 points, but the overall improvement is not significant. From the K-line pattern, it currently shows a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating that Ethereum's market performance may be mediocre in the near future.

If Ethereum's price breaks below 2,000 USD, it may further decline to around 1,600 USD. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor the pressure levels above Ethereum, with 2,500 USD being an important resistance point. If Ethereum's price can rise to 2,500 USD, it may be worth considering reducing positions.

Given the current market trend and the distribution of resistance levels, it may be quite challenging for Ethereum's price to break through 2,600 USD, so 2,500 USD can be considered a reasonable point for reducing positions.

SOL: The current price is 145 USD, previously fluctuating around 140 - 130 USD, overall in a weak state. From a technical analysis perspective, there is a strong support level around 125 USD for SOL. This support level is crucial; if it is effectively broken, SOL's price may further decline to around 85 USD. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor SOL's price performance around 125 USD to assess its subsequent trend.

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