Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded individuals on the investment journey. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the King’s articles and videos, and I hope the brothers who have been following the King will return.
Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Ek9dYcEc5/
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis Report for March 5
I. Market Review and Current Landscape
Yesterday (March 4), the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility. Bitcoin rebounded from around 83,000 to 88,600 before falling back, ultimately closing near 86,500, with a 24-hour decline of over 9%. Ethereum dropped from $2,140 to $2,056, a decline of 15%. Today (March 5), the market has entered a narrow range of fluctuations, with Bitcoin currently at 86,500 and Ethereum at $2,145, both showing a daily decline of about 1%. This volatility is closely related to the brief positive sentiment from Trump’s "Crypto Reserve Plan" and subsequent policy implementation concerns.
II. Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Daily Level: Yesterday, a long lower shadow bearish candle was formed, indicating buying support around 83,000. However, the price remains under pressure below the MA5 (84,800) and MA10 (85,500) moving averages. It is essential to monitor whether it can stabilize in this area to confirm a short-term trend reversal.
Key Resistance: MA256 daily moving average (88,600). If it breaks and stabilizes above this level, it will open up upward space; otherwise, it will maintain a bearish consolidation pattern.
4-Hour Level: The price is fluctuating between MA30 (86,500) and MA5 (87,000). The MACD indicator shows insufficient momentum, and the short-term direction needs to focus on the pressure test results at 88,600.
Support Levels: 86,500 (MA30), 85,000 (previous low); Resistance Levels: 88,600 (MA256), 90,000 (psychological level).
On-chain Data: Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 497 Bitcoins (total holdings of 2,888), indicating institutional buying on dips may provide support.
Trading volume data shows a recent decline in market activity, and caution is advised against false breakout risks.
III. Ethereum Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics
Daily Level: The price continues to operate below MA5 (2,250) and MA10 (2,300), forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a weak short-term trend.
Key Resistance: 2,230 (4-hour MA30), 2,300 (daily MA10); Support Levels: 2,100 (psychological level), 2,070 (previous low).
On-chain Signals: The ETH balance on exchanges has dropped to a new low for the year, while institutions (such as BlackRock) have increased their holdings of ETH worth $276 million, possibly indicating a long-term bullish outlook.
The total locked value in Layer 2 has reached $36.04 billion, but it has decreased by 3.34% over the past week, putting short-term pressure on the DeFi ecosystem.
Policy Impact: The U.S. Senate has passed a bill to abolish IRS crypto tax rules. If approved by the House, it will reduce trading friction, benefiting ETH and other smart contract platforms.
IV. In-depth Analysis of Market News
Trump's Policy Game: A proposed "zero capital gains tax on crypto sales" policy requires Congressional approval, leading to a short-term boost in sentiment before the market returns to rationality.
The White House Crypto Summit (March 7) is approaching, with executives from Coinbase and others attending. The direction of the regulatory framework may become a catalyst for market movements.
Institutional Movements: Metaplanet continues to increase its BTC holdings, and Blockstream has received billions in investments to establish a crypto fund, showing confidence in underlying assets.
VanEck warns that the Solana protocol upgrade may reduce validator earnings, potentially causing funds to flow back to BTC/ETH.
Macro Risks: Expectations for Fed interest rate hikes are rising, and a stronger dollar index is suppressing risk assets, increasing the correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks.
V. Daily Trading Strategy
Bitcoin (BTC):
Short Position: Enter lightly at 88,000, add to the position at 89,000 on a rebound, target 86,500 → 85,000, stop loss at 89,500.
Long Position: Build positions in batches below 84,000, stop loss at 83,000, target 86,000 → 87,500.
Ethereum (ETH):
Short Position: Enter lightly at 2,200, add to the position at 2,240 on a rebound, target 2,100 → 2,070, stop loss at 2,260.
Long Position: Try going long below 2,100, stop loss at 2,050, target 2,200 → 2,250 (must synchronize with BTC breakout signals).
VI. Risk Warning
Policy Uncertainty: The difficulty of implementing Trump’s tax policy raises concerns about potential selling pressure from Congressional rejection.
Technical False Breakouts: If 88,600 (BTC) and 2,230 (ETH) do not break out with volume, timely profit-taking is necessary.
Key Date on March 7: The White House summit and OPEC+ production increase decision may trigger cross-market volatility.
Conclusion: The current market is in a phase of policy expectations and technical battles. It is recommended to maintain a bearish consolidation mindset, focusing on the breakout situations at 88,600 (BTC) and 2,230 (ETH), and flexibly adjust positions based on news developments.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control profit-taking and stop-loss effectively. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is mainly on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient styles include mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
