In the past week, the prices of crypto assets have been significantly influenced by information. On February 28, BTC hit a low of $78,258, and market sentiment fell into extreme fear. As the Trump administration proposed to "include five tokens in the new strategic reserve," the price of BTC quickly rebounded, breaking through long-term resistance levels, reaching a high of $95,000, and temporarily stabilizing around the resistance level of $92,000 to $93,000.
Following this, Trump's tariff policy was announced on March 3, Eastern Time, leading to a decline in the prices of crypto assets, with BTC experiencing a rollercoaster market. Currently, BTC's price fluctuates around $83,000, with a maximum price fluctuation exceeding 10% within 24 hours. ETH saw a maximum price fluctuation exceeding 15% within 24 hours, hitting a low of $2,002 (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of March 4, 16:00).
Although the current market narrative is relatively favorable for crypto assets, macro data and market sentiment significantly impact the price trends of crypto assets. In the current environment of clear risk aversion, investors are advised to closely monitor fundamental information such as U.S. Treasury bonds and wait for macro signals.
Market Analysis
Trump's team manipulates the crypto market, leading to extreme volatility
On March 2, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would create a cryptocurrency strategic reserve, which would include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. The news caused a sharp rebound in the cryptocurrency market, with ADA surging over 60%. Although BTC's market dominance has decreased, its price still rose by over 10%.
Since Trump's election and successful inauguration, the crypto market has been an important bargaining chip for him. Based on past events, Trump's team has become increasingly adept at influencing the crypto market through information, whether in timing or technical control. The upcoming first cryptocurrency summit at the White House on March 7 is also highly anticipated. How will Trump act to "ensure that the U.S. becomes the world's cryptocurrency capital"?
February saw record net outflows from BTC ETFs, and March's market performance is expected to be poor
Recently, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive days, with the market experiencing a net outflow of about $2.4 billion in the past week. Coinglass data shows that February was the month with the most severe outflows in BTC ETF history. The market's risk aversion is evident, and with the exit of arbitrage funds, the performance of BTC ETFs in March may not be optimistic. Data shows that on the 3rd, the total net outflow from BTC spot ETFs was $74.19 million.
The ETH market is also under severe pressure. In February, the ETH lending market experienced the most severe liquidation event in 12 months, with nearly $500 million in collateral being liquidated, mostly occurring on Aave and Compound platforms. The surge in liquidations coincided with the overall market decline, leading to a significant drop in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and triggering a large number of forced liquidations. This is the second-highest monthly liquidation amount in DeFi history, second only to the liquidation amount during the market crash in May 2021.
U.S. crypto regulation welcomes spring, with many institutions recently settling with the SEC
The SEC recently withdrew investigations into companies such as Robinhood, Gemini, UniSwap Labs, MetaMask, and OpenSea, and reached settlements with Coinbase and Kraken. Compared to the Biden administration, the SEC has undergone a significant shift in cryptocurrency regulation.
A statement released by the SEC on Monday indicated that the cryptocurrency working group would hold its first roundtable meeting on March 21 at its headquarters in Washington, D.C. The theme will be "How We Got Here and How We Move Forward—Defining the Status of Securities." This will be part of a series of meetings titled "Spring Sprint Towards Clarity in Cryptocurrency."
Macro & Data Sharing
Trump's tariff policy finalized, U.S. stock market trembles
On March 3, U.S. President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs would begin on April 2, with a 25% tariff policy on goods from Mexico and Canada taking effect on March 4. Trump stated that there was no room for consensus on tariffs with Mexico and Canada. Additionally, Trump mentioned that he would consider reaching a free trade agreement with Argentina.
Under the heavy pressure of Trump's tariff policy, the three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply at the end of trading, with the S&P 500 index recording its largest drop of the year, and the Nasdaq erasing gains since the last election. Market panic increased sharply, with technology and chip stocks under pressure; Nvidia plummeted nearly 9%, Broadcom fell over 6%, and Amazon dropped over 3%. "Safe-haven asset" gold rose back above $2,900. The market is closely watching the European Central Bank meeting and the non-farm payroll report.
U.S. economic growth shows weak data, and the market urgently needs solutions
Consumer credit and housing market data continue to decline sharply, with new home sales hitting a historic low. The number of new housing starts has also begun to decline after the post-pandemic boom, intensifying market panic over weak economic growth.
Currently, most U.S. economic surprise indices have turned negative, influenced by weak exports (from -$29 billion to -$250 billion) and consumer spending (from +2.2% to +1.3%). The Atlanta Fed's GDP growth forecast for the first quarter saw a record drop last week, revised down from +2.2% to -1.3%.
Bond market performance varies, with Japanese bonds hitting new highs
On March 4, data from Jin10 showed that the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008. Bloomberg data indicated that the yield on dollar-denominated bonds in the past week has significantly decreased.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
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