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Bitcoin and Ethereum Midday Market Analysis Report (March 4, 2025)——After a sharp rebound, the bearish trend continues, with key support and news interpretation.
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I.** Market Review: Policy benefits fleeting, bears dominate short-term trends**
Trump's policy stimulus and market reversal
On March 3, Trump announced that cryptocurrencies such as XRP, SOL, and ADA would be included in the U.S. strategic reserves, causing Bitcoin to surge to $87,000 and Ethereum to break through $2,300.
However, the positive news was quickly digested: in the early hours of the 4th, Bitcoin plummeted over 9% to below $84,000, and Ethereum fell 15% to $2,056, with over 170,000 contracts liquidated across the network, amounting to $800 million. This indicates market skepticism about the policy details and intense profit-taking pressure in the short term.
Technical and emotional resonance
Bitcoin's daily chart recorded two consecutive large bearish candles, completely retracing the gains from the previous week; Ethereum's daily MA256 ($2,130) key support was breached, and the market sentiment index dropped to 16 (extreme fear).
II.** Technical Analysis: Key moving averages and pattern signals**
Bitcoin (BTC)
Daily level:
MA5/10 death cross: The current price ($84,000) has fallen below MA5 ($86,000) and MA10 ($85,000). If it cannot recover, the short-term trend will continue to lean bearish.
Support below:
Weekly MA30 ($82,500): If breached, it may trigger long stop-losses;
Daily MA256 ($78,000): The long-term bull-bear dividing line; if touched, it will attract bottom-fishing funds.
4-hour level:Unilateral downtrend channel: The price is moving down along the MA5 line, with rebound highs gradually decreasing, and bearish momentum has not weakened.
Ethereum (ETH)
Daily level:MA256 breached: After the $2,130 support was broken, the price accelerated down to the psychological level of $2,000, with the daily MACD green bars expanding, indicating bearish dominance.
Key support/resistance: $2,000 round number: If breached, it may test the weekly MA30 ($1,850);
$2,130: Must regain this level to alleviate downward pressure.
4-hour level:Weak rebound: The price briefly touched $2,140 before retreating, with MA5/10 forming resistance, RSI oversold but no divergence signal present.
III.** Market sentiment and capital flow**
Sentiment indicator: Contrarian signals under extreme fear
Fear and Greed Index 16: A new low in a year and a half, close to historical extremes (0-20 is extreme fear), suggesting the market may be nearing a short-term bottom, but technical confirmation is needed.
Exchange position changes: Binance significantly reduced BTC (94.1%) and ETH (99.9%) holdings from January to February, while USDC holdings surged, reflecting institutional caution regarding short-term trends.
Potential catalysts in the news
Trump's crypto summit (March 7): If policy details are clarified (such as reserve size, compliance framework), it may boost the market; if lacking substantial content, selling pressure may continue.
On-chain data signals: Bitcoin active addresses hit a three-month high, on-chain activity suggests a "surrender moment" is approaching, but price stabilization is needed to confirm a reversal.
IV.** Operational strategy: Focus on shorting rebounds, watch key support**
Bitcoin (BTC)
Short strategy: Light position entry: around $84,800;
Add position point: Add to position on a rebound to $86,200 (daily MA10 resistance);
Target: $82,500 (weekly MA30), reduce position after breaching and hold until $78,000.
Long opportunity: Attempt to buy low near $78,000, stop loss at $75,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
Short strategy: Light position entry: $2,140 (daily MA256 resistance);
Add position point: Add to position on a rebound to $2,220 (4-hour MA30 resistance);
Target: $2,000, if breached, look down to $1,850.
Long simultaneously: If Bitcoin stabilizes at $78,000, Ethereum can try to go long near $1,850.
V.** Risk warning**
Policy uncertainty: Trump's crypto summit may trigger significant volatility, strict position control is necessary.
Technical oversold recovery: If BTC/USD rises above $86,000 (daily MA5), and ETH/USD returns to $2,130, stop-loss on short positions is required.
Sentiment reversal signals: If the Fear and Greed Index rises above 40 or on-chain capital inflows increase, it may indicate a short-term rebound.
(Report writing time: March 4, 2025, 15:00) Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and decisions should be made cautiously.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link later. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient in styles: mobile lock position strategy around high and low support and resistance for short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, monthly head predictions.
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