The Bitcoin weekly chart is expected to close below $90,000 for the first time since November 2024, but a late surge following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve has driven prices up.
Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Although the monthly K-line closing price for February was $84,299, Bitcoin (BTC) closed the weekly K-line with a doji candlestick at a closing price of $94,222. As the price tests the upper resistance level of $95,000 again, one analyst remains cautious about a repeat of the "Xi surge" from 2019.
In 2019, market sentiment for Bitcoin was low during a prolonged bear market phase that lasted from June to October. However, on October 25, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced support for blockchain technology, which triggered a significant rise in Bitcoin's price.
However, in the following days, China implemented a series of crackdowns on crypto assets and activities such as mining, leading to Bitcoin's price hitting a new low within 30 days.
Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst "Cold Blooded Shiller" pointed out the similarities between the "Xi surge" and the current rally triggered by Trump, suggesting that due to a lack of upward momentum, the recovery in market sentiment often fades gradually, and the market quickly adjusts back to previous trends.
Comparison of Bitcoin's 2019 "Xi surge" and the 2025 "Trump-triggered rally." Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As shown in the chart, there are similarities between the two periods, both exhibiting a similar retest of previous support ranges. In the first case, the price was below $10,000 in 2019, while in 2025, it was below $95,000, and the asset hit a new low 30 days later. The analyst added that in 2019, traders quickly realized that the price increase was a "short squeeze" and managed to secure some very good entry points.
Similarly, cryptocurrency trader Magus mentioned that bulls need to prove their strength this week and re-establish recognition of the value area high (VAH) at $103,000 and the value area low (VAL) at $91,000.
Bitcoin volume distribution analysis by Magus. Source: X.com
The value area high (VAH) and value area low (VAL) define a range where most of the trading volume occurred during the selected time period on the chart (in this case, since November 2024). However, Magus remains cautious about the 2019 "Xi surge," stating:
Related: As Trump vigorously promotes his cryptocurrency reserve plan, Bitcoin's dominance falls below 50%
According to on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, despite the rise in Bitcoin's price, the cost basis for short-term holders (STH) initially rose above $92,700 but has since fallen below that level. Bitcoin's current price is below $92,700, indicating that short-term holders remain in a "fragile position," with the current profit status only at breakeven.
Additionally, the data analysis platform noted that Bitcoin's accumulation trend score has remained below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days, highlighting a long-term net selling state.
Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: X.com
The distribution phase is defined as a stage where investors take profits, which often coincides with market corrections. Glassnode added:
Related: The hidden buyers in Bitcoin's decline: A complete picture of institutional accumulation behavior
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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