🧐Keep It Simple Stupid = KISS This stage maintains a simple strategy, patiently waiting——

Arthur Hayes: Firmly believes we are still in a bull market cycle, with the worst-case scenario being Bitcoin dropping to $70,000;

Bitcoin is the barometer of global liquidity and will be the first to bottom out and rebound.

To be honest, I agree with Xiao Hei's analysis this time:

First of all, I also firmly believe we are currently in a bull market; the previous wave of the market has already completed a phase, which is an undeniable fact. However, I believe it is quite certain that there will be another significant turnaround at the latest in the second or third quarter;

Arthur Hayes' arguments include Trump's economic policies and their impact on the global risk asset market (especially cryptocurrencies), presenting the following key points:

1) Trump's policy goals and financing methods——

As a performer with a real estate background, Trump is skilled at achieving goals through low-cost borrowing. The author believes he will implement the "America First" policy through debt financing rather than triggering an economic recession through tightening policies.

He hopes to be a president similar to Roosevelt (FDR) rather than Hoover, thus leaning towards maintaining economic prosperity through money printing and loose monetary policy.

2) The game between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve——

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell serve different "masters"—Bessent is loyal to Trump, while Powell is perceived to lean towards the Democratic camp.

This divergence complicates the prediction of monetary policy direction. Xiao Hei speculates that Trump may force Powell to loosen monetary policy (lower interest rates, stop quantitative tightening, or restart quantitative easing) by creating economic recession or market panic.

3) The role of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)——

Trump significantly cuts government spending through the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) led by Musk, combating fraud and inefficiency (such as firing government employees and reducing ineffective expenditures). This may lead to a short-term economic slowdown or even recession, providing a reason for Federal Reserve intervention.

4) Impact on cryptocurrencies——

The author expects that if Trump successfully promotes monetary easing (with an expected injection of $2.74 trillion to $3.24 trillion in liquidity by 2025), cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will rise significantly, potentially increasing tenfold from current levels to $1 million.

The reason is that loose policies will increase the supply of dollars and lower interest rates, thereby stimulating the prices of risk assets.

5) Investment advice and market outlook——

The author advises investors to follow the KISS principle, focusing on simple strategies (such as gradually buying in when Bitcoin prices drop), and predicts that the market may experience fluctuations due to liquidity crises in the short term, but is bullish in the long term.

He believes Bitcoin is the barometer of global liquidity and will be the first to bottom out and rebound.

In summary, the article suggests that Trump will trigger monetary easing through debt financing and policy manipulation, which may lead to economic turmoil in the short term but is favorable for assets like Bitcoin in the long term. Investors should maintain a simple strategy and seize opportunities.

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