The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not end anytime soon, and Canada has stated that it will retaliate if the U.S. imposes tariffs. It was previously mentioned that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen by the market as a way to offset Trump's tariff plans, especially since rare earth minerals are a necessary means to restrict China's countermeasures.

Just now, Zelensky stated that an agreement to end the war between Ukraine and Russia is "still very, very far away," and there is one more day until the increase in tariffs takes effect, so the inflation data for March and April may not look good.

Last Friday's core PCE showed that the inflation data most closely watched by the Federal Reserve is declining. If the data for March and April starts to rise, the market and the Federal Reserve may attribute it to tariffs (including food, energy, raw materials, daily necessities, etc.), but the ultimate result may still be unfavorable for interest rate cuts.

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