Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night was truly explosive. Trump suddenly made a big move, first tweeting about building a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, specifically mentioning XRP, SOL, and ADA. An hour later, he leisurely added: oh right, I’ll also take BTC and ETH.

I have to say, this operation was quite slick. Clearly, he secretly bought small coins first, then announced it to pump the market, and only mentioned mainstream coins when it looked like it was about to take off. The market was played with like a child's game, crashing hard and then pumping hard, finishing a week's work in one night.

Those not watching the market must be confused. This is Trump, the first super influencer in the crypto world, turning decentralization into Trump-ification. Speaking of which, after a rise of ten thousand points, I remember the last time it was this exaggerated was during which National Day? This kind of pump-and-dump style looks great, but usually can't hold up.

Isn't TRUMP coin just like that? It peaked and then disappeared. The liquidity is still poor, with 6.7 billion flowing out in February. This wave came after a drop to 78 in February, and Trump’s shout directly pulled it back to expected levels.

In the short term, whatever he shouts will work, but in the long term, we still have to look at the macro situation. The trend hasn’t changed; the weekly chart is oscillating downwards, and there are still chances for further dips. This week will at least see three needles, both up and down. Last night’s pump was unhealthy and could drop at any moment.

I see some friends leaving messages to Master, feeling optimistic about March, but I have to pour some cold water on that. The dollar index is rising, the dollar is strong, while the crypto market is being suppressed. There’s no chance of a rate cut this month, and not much hope for May either; there’s no major good news to push prices up.

So if there’s a rebound, take profits quickly; don’t wait for a crash to cut losses. In March, BTC will likely test new lows, and new lows are a good opportunity for short-term rebounds. It’s slightly better than February, but don’t expect too much.

Now, let’s talk about this month. On March 20, the Federal Reserve will meet, with a 92% probability of no change, so volatility is inevitable. On March 5 at 21:15, there’s the ADP employment report, and on March 7 at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls. The strategic reserves are basically stable, with details coming in the early hours of March 8.

If the non-farm payrolls on the 7th disappoint, the peak on the 8th might save the day. The market in the first quarter is essentially Trump and the Federal Reserve playing together; he shouts orders and sets the rhythm, and we can also expect the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reserves in Utah.

As I write this, several friends have already messaged me asking if there will be a crash during the day. First of all, I personally believe there won’t be, and there might even be some buying support. The good news is clear; from the perspective of the main players, it doesn’t make sense to crash the market before the 8th. Even if the sentiment is low during the day, the U.S. stock market opening at night can still pump it up. The U.S. stock market was doing well on Friday, and there was more news yesterday, so I believe it should be fine.

Master Looks at Trends:

Currently, it is recommended to pay attention to the movement within the range of 92.5K to 93.8K. If the upper boundary of the range breaks, the range can be adjusted to 93.8K to 95.2K, and continue to maintain a short-term rebound strategy.

The first resistance is the upper boundary of the short-term range. If it successfully breaks, we can expect a retest of 94K. After observing the trading volume in the resistance area, it is advised not to chase high trades directly but to wait for a pullback opportunity.

I personally expect a higher probability of breaking the high point, but due to the strong resistance at 93.8K, the 200-day moving average, and the descending trend line, it is recommended to wait for a resistance retest before considering entering short-term trades.

Currently, the smaller the adjustment range, the more likely it is to hold the lower boundary, increasing the possibility of continuing the rebound. Therefore, the lower boundary of the range can be set at 91.3K as an important support line. If there is further rebound, the support line can be gradually moved up to respond.

3.3 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light position in the range of 95,200-96,200; Target: 93,800-91,300

Short Entry Reference: Light position in the range of 89,000-90,000; Target: 91,300-93,800

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