Over the past 28 months, $ETHBTC has:

• Fallen for 21 monthly candles (75% of the time)

• Risen for 7 monthly candles (25% of the time)

The data is even worse since the start of 2024, with 11 down months & only 3 up months (21.4% of the time).

Using quarterly candles since Q1'23, $ETHBTC has fallen in 7 of the past 8 quarters and is currently tracking towards its 8th in 9 quarters for Q1'25.

This downtrend has been so significant (in terms of duration and magnitude) that $ETHBTC is currently trading at the same levels as it was in March 2016... WHICH WAS 9 YEARS AGO. In other words, practically anyone who has bought $ETH instead of $BTC at any point over the past 9 years and didn't sell has been outperformed by Bitcoin.

Let's pick objective numbers & look at trailing annual returns for ETH/BTC:

• 1-year returns: -52.1%

• 2-year returns: -62.3%

• 3-year returns: -61.4%

• 4-year returns: -16.9%

• 5-year returns: +2.4%

• 6-year returns: -26.3%

• 7-year returns: -68.5%

• 8-year returns: +95.1%

• 9-year returns: +80.7%

In other words, the more recently you bought ETH instead of BTC, the worse your decision has been.

I'm not trying to be mean... these are just facts.

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