25/02/18 BTC maintains short-term fluctuations, rebound unable to break out of the range, later pullback unavoidable

25/02/21 BTC breaks 99,000 as expected, pressured near the daily downtrend, short-term attention needed on pullback risks

25/02/23 The largest hacking incident in history, BTC market drops nearly 5,000 points, U.S. stocks plummet with potential "black swan"

25/02/24 BTC frequently tests 95K support, whether it can effectively hold in the short term, rebound ineffective if unable to break pressure

25/02/27 BTC timely reminder of "black swan," down nearly 25% from the peak, ETH still within pin range!

A warning has been repeatedly issued to be cautious of potential "black swan" or "gray rhino" events in U.S. stocks, as the eighth tech stock of the U.S. market is greatly influenced by it. The Nasdaq has been sideways for 11 weeks, unable to break the high, while the S&P 500 has seen several short-term new highs but fell back, reminding of increasing risks. Since last Thursday, the market opened low and continued to drop sharply, with no significant rebounds in between.

Additionally, after Bitcoin broke the new high, it fluctuated between 97,777 and 106,000 for half a month, and after a spike to 91,000, it fluctuated between 95,000 and 98,400 for 18 days. The rebound touched the 100,000 downtrend line and then fell; prolonged sideways movement must change, and if the rebound pressure cannot break, it is easy to drop.

As of the time of writing, the Nikkei index has dropped by 3.14%, the Korea Composite Index by 3.41%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.31%, and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.08%, explaining why Bitcoin's early morning drop is not surprising.

Bitcoin

Yesterday, after rebounding to a high of 87,066, it continued to drop, with a morning spike to 82,667 showing weak short-term rebound strength before plummeting to 79,301. Since we warned of a potential black swan, it has dropped 17,000 points, an 18% decline.

From a larger cycle perspective, the weekly BOLL has directly broken down with a large bearish candle, looking at least towards the BOLL lower band around 68,000–69,500, which is also a retest of the previous bull market high and the starting point of the rally since the victory of the "understanding king." It is also possible that it will move similarly to last year's grinding. In fact, such a sharp drop is a good thing, indicating that after a few months of grinding down, there may be another wave similar to that of 2021. Let's take it step by step and continue to pay attention to the channel.

Support: Pressure:

Ethereum

Dropped to a low of 2,094, breaking the spike bottom, raising concerns about accelerated declines. Currently, the price has dropped to the monthly BOLL lower band, which could also be around 1,300–1,500. BTC D spiked to 62.74% before dropping; whether this is a turning point for ETH or altcoins still needs observation. The ETH/BTC exchange rate spiked to a low of 0.02337 and has been fluctuating within the spike range.

Support: Pressure:

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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only, updated in real-time.

Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: Trading Prince Fusu

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