1. Fundamental and On-Chain Data Analysis

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Bitcoin Whale Holdings Changes: From the ranking data of the top 100 on-chain whales, three whales have slightly increased their Bitcoin holdings. However, it is regrettable that these increases do not cover the 23,000 Bitcoins sold by the 18th ranked whale and the 1,000 Bitcoins sold by the 12th ranked whale. Overall, the accumulation data from whales is not ideal. Fortunately, there has not been a significant sell-off, which has stabilized market sentiment to some extent.

Fear and Greed Index: The Bitcoin fear and greed index has reached a very low position, around 10. Historically, every time the fear and greed index approaches 10, it indicates that the market enters a special state. The last time it reached around 10 was on June 16, 2022, during the collapse of the LUNA incident; on January 6, 2022, Bitcoin was about to touch the low point of the second wave of rebound; on May 20, 2021, Bitcoin experienced a bottoming out at 519.

Specifically, on June 13, 2022, which is the week of June 16, Bitcoin touched $20,000, and in the following 2-4 weeks, it formed a bottom pattern and rebounded from $20,000 to around $25,000, although it later continued to decline. Around January 6, 2022, when the fear and greed index touched 10, Bitcoin's price reached $32,600 again within two weeks, initiating a rebound wave.

During the 519 event, Bitcoin's price reached around $30,000, and the fear and greed index also touched around 10 again. In the following 2-4 weeks, Bitcoin's price experienced a strong upward rebound.

Thus, it can be seen that the current Bitcoin fear and greed index has once again approached 10. Based on historical experience, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will experience a strong rebound in the next 2-4 weeks.

Cryptocurrency ETF: The performance of Bitcoin ETFs is also a focus of market attention. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $92.3 million. On the 25th, the net outflow peaked at $1.139 billion, with a net outflow of $539 million on the 24th. Since Bitcoin broke below $90K, the price has been declining, ultimately reaching $82,000, with a drop of between $8,000 and $10,000. Bitcoin ETFs have shown continuous net outflows since the 12th, indicating an increase in short- to medium-term market risks.

2. Technical Analysis Interpretation

BTC: From a technical perspective, we can boldly identify two double top structures along with the neckline. Through this technical analysis method, we find that the downward space for Bitcoin's price is limited. A slight further drop would bring it to $77,000, which is the futures gap position repeatedly mentioned by Jiuge, and also near the 50 line of the Fibonacci retracement at $79,000.

If Bitcoin's price drops further to around $77,000, it is likely to touch the bottom area, triggering a strong rebound.

Of course, there is another possibility in the market, which is that Bitcoin may not rebound at this position. If we drift the channel downwards, we will find that Bitcoin has just dropped an entire channel. Next, Bitcoin may also start a strong upward rebound after $82,000.

Currently, the hourly chart of Bitcoin shows that it is in the stage of rebounding from $82,000. The first key resistance level upwards is $86,500, which is the 382 line of the Fibonacci retracement. If Bitcoin can break through $86,500, it will welcome a decent upward rebound.

At the same time, on the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin is currently also at a resistance level. In addition to the resistance at $86,500, there is also one at $85,300, which is the channel resistance on the 15-minute chart. If Bitcoin cannot break through $85,300, it may test $82,000 again, which is the lower boundary of the channel.

We need to closely monitor whether Bitcoin can break through $85,300. If it does, it may rebound again to around $88,000, which would be what we call a strong rebound.

ETH: Currently, on the 15-minute chart, Ethereum is also operating within a channel. The upper resistance level is $2,390, and we need to pay attention to whether Ethereum can break through this resistance level. If it breaks through, Ethereum will also rebound to test the $2,520 position, which may be a point for everyone to reduce their positions.

From the daily chart of Ethereum's price movement, we will find that it is currently experiencing three consecutive bearish candles, approaching a previous low point of $2,100.

Ethereum currently faces two important support levels on the daily chart: the first is the upward trend line around $2,200; the second is the 618 line of the Fibonacci retracement, around $2,122. These two positions form a very strong support area.

If Bitcoin or Ethereum's price drops further, it would be a good opportunity for short-term entry. However, it is important to note that during a bear market, market risks are high, and position sizes must be controlled. Jiuge suggests using 20-30% of your capital to operate, avoiding heavy positions, as heavy positions can easily lead to deep losses in a bear market.

RUNE: Yesterday, RUNE broke through the double bottom structure at the bottom and showed a certain amount of volume, forming a long bullish candle, although with a shadow, but overall performance was good. If RUNE retraces to around $1.50, it can be considered for a short-term entry. If it finds support at this position, the next target can be around $2.10.

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