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In recent days, the sharp decline of Bitcoin has truly been nerve-wracking, and I even saw some friends trying to catch the bottom. First, I want to ask, why the rush to catch the bottom? Where is the bottom now? No one can guarantee where it will stop falling.

The crash that started a couple of days ago has left retail investors in a panic, and inflation is starting to rise again. I mentioned in my article last week that Trump's radical policies and tariffs will definitely push inflation up. As for interest rate cuts? Don't even think about it!

If there are no interest rate hikes this year, it would be a blessing from heaven. But if there are rate hikes, it would be a black swan event, and Bitcoin dropping below 50,000 would not be a dream. This trend is already in front of us; don’t ask about bulls and bears, just take whatever comes.

Short on the highs, keep shorting until the weekly MACD crosses below the zero line and the weekly chart starts to form a bottom. Even if there is a slight upward trend this year, by 2026, we will definitely see a major adjustment on the weekly and monthly charts.

With Bitcoin's plunge in the past couple of days, some altcoins have not dropped as severely and even rebounded slightly. Don’t be naive to think they can’t fall further. This is because altcoins have already been hovering at low levels, and the main forces are temporarily supporting the market.

However, I feel that this support won’t last long. From the candlestick chart, the altcoins' decline has not kept pace with Bitcoin's drop mainly because they had already fallen earlier, moving faster than Bitcoin. The daily MACD shows signs of bottoming, and the 2-day and 3-day charts are gradually revealing bottom signals.

So when Bitcoin makes a new low and starts to consolidate or slightly rebound, these altcoins will bounce a bit. This is the origin of the so-called "altcoin season" that some KOLs are shouting about. But don’t celebrate too early; this doesn’t mean they won’t continue to fall.

If there are no significant macroeconomic benefits, the next step will be the weekly MACD breaking below the zero line, and bottoming will take a long time, officially entering a deep bear market. Once the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lines of altcoins finish their rebounds, they will have to synchronize with Bitcoin in the weekly MACD bottoming rhythm.

There will be several main waves of decline: making a new low, rebounding a bit, consolidating for a while, then making a new low, repeating this cycle until a major bottom on the weekly chart appears. This is a typical bear market pattern during the halving cycle.

Every bear market is a test for the market; over 90% of projects will fail. Most altcoins could drop another 99% from their current prices, and Bitcoin would generally have to drop over 66%, commonly referred to as "de-leveraging."

I am not sure if we are heading directly into the next halving bear market, but the bull market structure has definitely collapsed, and the transition between bulls and bears has already begun. Wait for the next bear market's lowest point to catch the bottom.

Let’s talk about the lifeline of the bulls I mentioned a couple of days ago. If Bitcoin breaks below 89,200 and cannot recover, the market will be in serious trouble. Now it seems that our hopes for another rally this year are fading; there will definitely be some, but there are currently no signs at all.

You can search through the news and data, but you won’t find any reasons for Bitcoin to surge. For a decent short-term rebound, we need to wait for the daily chart to form a bottom. Right now, the 4-hour to 12-hour charts haven’t even touched the bottom yet, and we will continue to fall to find support. In the short term, aside from rebounds, it’s all about shorting; after a new low, short-term longs should be quick in and out to catch the rebound; there’s really not much else to do.

As for spot traders, I see Bitcoin's short-term bottom around 76,850 to 74,666. If it rebounds to 83 to 85k, it’s time to run and secure profits. Short-term high shorts are great; being at a high position is basically not alarming, and I suggest taking profits in batches.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 87,700

Second Resistance Level: 85,800

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 83,300

Second Support Level: 82,000

Today's Suggestions:

After Bitcoin breaks below 85K, a new downward space has opened up. If it breaks the first resistance again during the day, the short-term rebound strength may increase, but I will choose to wait and see. If I enter the market and a rebound occurs, the first resistance will be the area to take profits and observe.

After breaking below the psychological support of 85K, we can turn support into resistance for ultra-short-term trading. I suggest paying attention to the 20-day moving average trend on the 30-minute level as a basis for trading.

A new support line is forming in the current downward range. If it continues to break below the support line, the decline may accelerate. The support line marked in the chart can be used as a profit-loss ratio range, and short-term stop-loss can be set. Once a rebound occurs, it can yield a large profit with a small loss.

2.27 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: 90,750-91,250-91,450 short in light positions in batches. Target: 89,300-87,700

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