Let me explain why I believe it is not yet a bear market. Of course, this is just my personal and one-sided understanding, and it may not be correct.

First, from the perspective of liquidity trends, although the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy tightening starting in 2025, and the anticipated rate cuts have increased, we currently do not see any possibility of that. However, monetary easing in the U.S. is already on the way; although it is progressing slowly, it is an inevitable trend.

This does not mean that a bear market will not occur, but the conditions for a bear market must be accompanied by economic recession, the occurrence of a black swan event, or a significant decline in liquidity.

But what is the actual situation? Although U.S. stocks have fallen for three consecutive days, last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke through historical highs. As of now, the Nasdaq has already recovered the losses from yesterday, and the S&P 500 even has a chance to recover the losses from Monday. It is hard for me to understand how this situation can be labeled as a bear market; if there is one, it is certainly not now.

Many friends might say that while U.S. stocks are doing well, what does that have to do with cryptocurrencies? However, if we view U.S. stocks as leveraged tech stocks, it becomes much easier to understand. On one hand, there is uncertainty brought by monetary policy; on the other hand, there is a decline in investor expectations due to tariff policies. Additionally, some investors exit the market when historical highs are reached. To put it more plainly, every time #Bitcoin breaks a historical high, there are also a large number of investors exiting. The same logic applies to U.S. stocks.

As for cryptocurrencies being leveraged tech stocks, I think that is not impossible. Furthermore, in 2023 and 2024, we experienced eight months of a "garbage time." During each of these periods, there were always friends telling me that it was a bear market and that we should run, or else it would start with an "X." In 2023, it once fell below $25,000, and in 2024, it once fell below $50,000.

At that time, the rhetoric about a bear market was even more intense than now. Back in August, in just six days, it dropped from a high of $70,000 to $49,000. Yet, it slowly returned to the support range from $49,000. The situation back then was not worse than now, and it eventually broke through new highs again, entering a new phase.

I believe this is not a matter of faith. At least I think Bitcoin can be viewed more positively in the long term. Moreover, as long as BTC has a chance, other cryptocurrencies will also have some opportunities, and I think that’s fine. If you believe this is a bear market, what is the standard for a bear market? Short selling. If you think it’s a bear market, you can consider shorting. If a bull market means anything can rise, a bear market means anything can be shorted for profit.

I will also start to enter shorting mode, but not now, and I will not short BTC.

This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX

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