In the past few days, I've been discussing my investment logic. I don't know if it's right, and I can't guarantee that it is, but I trade according to my own investment logic. Even now, I still feel that there are opportunities in Q1, but I don't know how far those opportunities can go. I believe that there are currently no obvious negative factors in Q1. The tariffs have indeed caused concern, and inflation is still fluctuating; these two are reasons that affect market expectations.
However, the easing of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of Bitcoin's strategic reserves, and even Trump's support for the cryptocurrency and AI sectors make me feel that it's too early to conclude now. At least we should wait until after the dot plot is released on March 18. The dot plot in March corresponds to the main expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025, which is more than twice. If that happens, market sentiment will ease; if it's less than twice, the market will accelerate into panic and enter a bear market.
At least that's how I see it, and this is my personal direction up to now. I can't say that I'm definitely right; I could be wrong. If I'm wrong, I need to be prepared to hold on until at least the end of the year or even 2026, or even longer.
This is my investment logic, and I operate this way myself. Friday will see the core PCE data, which will also have a significant impact on sentiment. Let's wait and see.
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