Master Talks Hot Topics:

First of all, the Master himself didn't expect that within 24 hours, Bitcoin would experience a shocking plunge, directly breaking below $10,000! Market sentiment has completely collapsed, and the Master has seen everyone looking for reasons, feeling that everyone has their own "justification."

However, the Master believes that this time it was still Trump's tariff big move that caused the trouble, and the underlying monetary policy of the Federal Reserve cannot be ignored. It is important to know that ultimately, liquidity determines everything. In fact, recent news is not all bad; the U.S. support for cryptocurrencies is still quite positive.

If we were to look back to last year, it would have been no problem for Bitcoin to reach new highs. Unfortunately, this year, everyone's anxiety is more focused on monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts and liquidity overshadowing attention to the policy itself.

After all, from a long-term perspective, the direction of U.S. monetary policy is clear; the shift from monetary tightening to easing is an inevitable trend that no one can change. However, this path is not easy to walk, especially this year, which has become significantly more difficult. The Master still remembers that last year, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it might only cut rates twice by 2025, which directly set the difficulty level for this year.

Whether it will get worse depends mainly on monetary policy. Currently, market fluctuations and all changes in expectations are basically revolving around monetary policy. For example, the core PCE data released on Friday, although everyone knows that there will be no interest rate hike in March.

But investors are still speculating on the Federal Reserve's focus: is the inflation data rising or falling? The Master personally believes that the inflation data for the first quarter is actually within expectations; the real test may be in the second quarter. The impact of tariffs will be more apparent, and that will be the real test for the market, especially for altcoins.

Looking back, the current market situation is quite similar to that of 2023. At that time, Bitcoin's rise and fall were closely tied to news about spot ETFs; any slight movement would cause a rise, and after the news, it would fall again. The situation in 2024 is similar, with market sentiment basically being driven by the elections.

Speaking of Bitcoin, after a brief stay around 86k, it may consolidate at the end of the month. Let's see if the hourly-level rebound can continue; if not, it may continue to probe for new lows. The larger trend remains bearish, and a short-term rebound is unlikely to reverse the situation.

The recent resistance level is around 95,150, and there is almost no support between 86k and 75k. Since November 5 of last year, when it rose from 65.8k to now, there has been basically no resistance. Therefore, if 85k is broken, it may directly plunge to 75k, while 90k is currently the biggest resistance zone.

Just a reminder, on March 5 at 21:15, the U.S. February ADP employment data will be released, followed by unemployment claims on the 6th and non-farm payroll data on the 7th. These data points could all impact the market.

In any case, if Bitcoin's peak in this wave can reach 110k, friends considering buying spot next time can wait for the range between 33k and 24k to bottom out. Overall, it seems that the weekly bottom for Bitcoin might be around here. And in the range of 40k to 60k, the Master absolutely does not recommend any spot involvement.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

First Resistance Level: 90,800

Second Resistance Level: 89,300

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 88,100

Second Support Level: 87,100

Today's Suggestions:

Currently, a head and shoulders top pattern has appeared at the hourly level. If it breaks the neckline, further upward movement can be expected. Due to the slow rebound process and the significant price drop, the risk-reward ratio for shorting intraday is relatively suitable.

If the head and shoulders top pattern is confirmed and continues to rebound, the probability of retesting 90K will increase. Currently, the probability of breaking the first resistance is relatively high; when reaching the resistance level of 90.8K, if a short-term pullback occurs, it may be worth considering entering a very short position during the pullback.

The first support is the shoulder area of the head and shoulders top pattern; if this position is broken, the pattern will fail, and it may continue to decline in the short term. If it can maintain above this support level, the view of continuing the rebound can be upheld.

If the second support is broken during the day, it will again break the previous low. At that time, it will also trigger disappointing selling, increasing the probability of further declines. Given yesterday's significant drop, today we can expect a short-term rebound.

For very short positions, opportunities can be sought in the pullback range, paying attention to the support around 88~88.1K and the 20-day moving average trend at the hourly level.

2.26 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: 90,750-91,250-91,450 light positions in batches short Target: 89,300-88,100

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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