Macroeconomic Interpretation: BTC has been continuously declining throughout the day, breaking below the early February low, with a current low of $86,800, marking the lowest price since November last year. The entire crypto world seems to be reenacting a scene from a Stephen Chow movie, where countless investors' account values are being battered in the violent fluctuations. This sudden crash is not without signs; the cumulative effect of multiple bearish factors is comparable to the "Seven Injuries Fist" in martial arts novels, making market participants truly feel the "dangerous world" of the market.

According to Coinank data, there was a net outflow of $516 million from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in a single day, a figure that resembles the "Star Absorption Technique" from Jin Yong's works, directly draining the liquidity foundation of the market. What’s even more intriguing is that this capital flight occurs against the backdrop of increasing turmoil in traditional financial markets—while the Dow and Nasdaq are experiencing a "fire and ice" scenario, with tech stocks collectively plunging and gold prices hitting new highs, this significant asset reallocation suggests that institutional investors are reassessing their risk exposure.

The crypto derivatives market is currently playing out a dark drama akin to the "Nine Yin Manual," with generally negative funding rates on CEX and DEX platforms, resembling a "Heavenly Gang and Earthly Pole Formation" set up by various martial arts masters, trapping bearish market sentiment inescapably. This spread of panic has even affected Ethereum, the "second-in-command," as it lost the $2,500 support level, seemingly a ripple effect from the Bybit incident, but in reality exposing the market's deep anxiety about the "king of altcoins"—as OTC channels quietly fill the liquidity gap of exchanges, those short-term traders hoping to profit from public market volatility can only mourn silently at the calm on-chain data.

Changes in regulatory policies are like the "Evil-Repelling Sword Manual" from "The Smiling, Proud Wanderer," both enticing and fraught with danger. The move by South Dakota to halt the Bitcoin investment bill contrasts with the tariff policies pushed by the Trump administration, creating a "mutual combat" regulatory environment that leaves market participants at a loss. Interestingly, Point72 founder Steve Cohen's warning about a potential 10% drop in U.S. stocks is reminiscent of Huang Yaoshi playing the "Tide of the Blue Sea," which, while triggering anxiety in traditional markets, unexpectedly plants the seeds for the value storage function of crypto assets.

In this wave of capital migration, the evolution of the stablecoin market subtly mirrors the "Great Shift of the Universe." With a 56% market share in stablecoins, Ethereum has become the "summit of digital dollar liquidity." The phenomenon of whales continuously accumulating ETH, as revealed by CryptoQuant, combined with the upcoming "ETF altcoin season," may be brewing a new order in the market. Zhu Su's theory of "bullish selling" is particularly thought-provoking at this moment—when tokens flow from "weak hands" to "strong hands," the market is staging a real-life "Dragon-Slaying Sword Contest."

Looking ahead, three key events hang over us like the sword of Damocles: Nvidia's earnings report may repeat the "AI concept" comeback, U.S. GDP data could unveil the underlying cards for an economic soft landing, and the PCE index, which the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, is the ultimate code for a shift in monetary policy.

As market sentiment oscillates between greed and fear, the true winners are often those long-termists who deeply understand the principle of "let the strong be strong, and the gentle breeze caress the mountain ridge." Historical experience shows that every crash is a touchstone for quality assets, much like the rainbow that eventually appears after a heavy rain. Perhaps, as stated at the beginning of the "Sunflower Manual": "To practice divine skills, one must first…"—in this ever-changing crypto world, what investors may need most is not a supreme secret manual, but the insight to see the larger trend and the determination to uphold value.

BTC Analysis:

Recently, BTC has been continuously declining, with today's intraday low at $86,800, having broken below the lower edge of the high-level consolidation range around $89,000. If the closing price remains below this level, it is likely to form a 2B top pattern, indicating a significant potential for further declines. If we consider a vertical drop equal to the height of $20,000 (from $110,000 to $90,000), the measured target could be near $70,000. This area also roughly coincides with the previous high of $73,777 and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of $72,232.8, but this will not be a straightforward process, as other factors will also influence it.

Currently, it has also tested the rising trend line on a logarithmic scale, which may provide some support. Therefore, if this market movement is a false breakdown, and it can regain the $89,000-$91,000 range, it may continue to maintain the previous consolidation pattern.

In the absence of significant positive events (such as the U.S. passing the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act), the strategy should primarily focus on shorting at high levels, with some buying at lower levels. Currently, short-term resistance is around $94,800 and $97,000, while mid-term resistance is around $99,475 and $102,500. For short-term support, reference is around $85,070; below that, there is a vacuum area, with support around $77,000 and $73,777.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。