Recently, the cryptocurrency market has become relatively calm, lacking new market catalysts. Influenced by MSTR's intention to purchase more BTC, BTC returned to an upward channel in the middle of last week, reaching a high of $99,475 on the evening of the 21st, with a weekly increase of 6.5%. However, a black swan event occurred when Bybit was hacked, resulting in the theft of over $1.46 billion worth of ETH, marking the largest security incident in the current crypto landscape. The market's panic intensified, leading to a significant number of long stop-losses on Bybit, and the market stabilized after the decline.
Affected by U.S. tech stocks, the S&P and Nasdaq closed lower, while the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar, indicating a clear risk-averse sentiment in the market. BTC briefly fell below $89,000, currently quoted at $89,400 (data from Binance spot).
Market Analysis
Tech stocks collectively weakened, and the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar, triggering market risk aversion
The news that "Microsoft has canceled its data center leasing plans" has sparked discussions on Wall Street questioning the investment prospects in AI. Against the backdrop of unresolved issues such as tariffs, most large tech stocks collectively weakened, with Nvidia dropping over 3%, Tesla and Meta falling over 2%, and Amazon and Microsoft declining over 1%, while Apple saw a slight increase. By the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 1.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.08%.
As the market bets on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, the yen has risen nearly 6% in six weeks, currently at an exchange rate of 149.38 against the dollar, and is expected to challenge the three-month high of 148.84. Market risk aversion surged, with BTC briefly falling below $89,000 on the 25th, and the market fear and greed index indicating extreme fear. International gold prices reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.49%, having previously surged to $2,974 before the U.S. stock market opened.
ETH faces significant downward pressure, continued declines may lead to a prolonged weakness in the altcoin market
The hacker from Bybit still holds some ETH, and the market generally believes this asset will impact ETH prices. Additionally, there were previous expectations that Bybit would purchase a large amount of ETH in the open market, but this assumption has proven incorrect. As a result of this information, ETH leveraged positions have decreased, and on the 24th, the number of open contracts for ETH futures significantly dropped. Currently, ETH is priced at $2,394, nearing a critical support level. The strengthening yen has also exacerbated ETH's price volatility; if ETH continues to decline, it may trigger a chain reaction throughout the entire altcoin market.
Market Highlights
Nvidia's earnings report on Thursday is highly anticipated, and the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is also a market focus
The market is eagerly awaiting Nvidia's earnings report to be released this Thursday, as its financial results and outlook could have significant potential impacts on the entire AI industry chain.
Additionally, the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, to be released this Friday, is also a market focus. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee stated that amid government policy adjustments, the Fed should remain "cautious," and he still believes that interest rates will decline after a period of uncertainty, considering the impact of rising consumer inflation expectations to be minimal, and he is satisfied with the Fed's progress toward achieving the 2% inflation target.
Positive developments in crypto regulation, OKX Seychelles reaches a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice
On the 22nd, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal announced that the U.S. SEC has agreed to withdraw its lawsuit against Coinbase and cannot refile it; Coinbase has paid $50 million in legal fees for this case. On the 25th, one of OKX's subsidiaries, Aux Cayes FinTech Co. Ltd. (OKX Seychelles), announced a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding an investigation, admitting that the company conducted remittance business in the U.S. without permission. To reach this settlement, the company agreed to pay an $84 million fine and forfeit approximately $421 million in revenue obtained from U.S. customers during this period.
The market generally believes that cryptocurrency regulation has gradually improved since Trump's administration. According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, given the SEC's recent focus on staking businesses, the agency may reconsider its lawsuit against ConsenSys regarding its MetaMask staking service from last year. Additionally, the SEC had previously accused ConsenSys of engaging in unregistered brokerage activities, but this accusation has now been withdrawn, similar to the charges dismissed in the Coinbase lawsuit.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
