I. Fundamental Analysis
Conveying the Way of Trading, Enjoying a Wise Life.
Fear and Greed Index:
Currently, the overall market's fear and greed index is at 25, indicating an extreme fear state. According to market experience, when the greed index is around 20, reaching extreme fear often signifies the arrival of a temporary low point.
Looking back at history, the last time the fear and greed index reached around 25 was in August 2024, which is very similar to the current situation. As the market continues to decline, we are getting closer to the opportunity to re-enter in batches. This signal is crucial for investors as it may indicate potential investment opportunities.
Bitcoin Liquidation Data:
From the liquidation data of Bitcoin, the situation is not optimistic. On an hourly basis, the liquidation amount for long positions reached $72,940; for 4 hours, it was $500 million; for 12 hours, $700 million; and for 24 hours, $884 million. In total, the liquidation amount within 24 hours reached $955 million, with the number of liquidated accounts totaling 310,000, primarily from long positions.
This indicates that Bitcoin's current decline has dealt a significant blow to the bullish market, and the balance of power between bulls and bears has changed significantly.
On-Chain Data:
In terms of on-chain data, we noticed that whales holding MKR have already closed their positions, and we had previously reminded our students to exit. Looking at the movements of the whales, the situation among the top 100 whales yesterday was roughly the same as the day before. Among them, only the 59th and 99th ranked whales increased their holdings by 57 Bitcoin, while the 22nd ranked whale reduced its holdings by 23,277 Bitcoin and has not taken further action.
As important participants in the market, the changes in whale holdings often have a certain impact on the market, and investors need to pay close attention.
ETF Trends:
From the macro data perspective of ETF trends, since the 10th of this month, Bitcoin ETFs have been in a state of reduction. On the 21st, they further reduced their holdings by 513 Bitcoin. The continuous outflow from ETFs reflects that many investors are not optimistic about the market in the short to medium term, and market risks have increased. This signal also reminds us to remain cautious during the investment process and closely monitor market dynamics.
II. Technical Analysis Interpretation
BTC: The weekly chart is our focus. Currently, Bitcoin is supported at $90,000, which coincides with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. However, if the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is broken downwards, the price of Bitcoin may plummet, with the next target testing the 50-week moving average, roughly around $75,000.
Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could even reach $74,000 or even lower at $73,000, which is close to a high point from last year. If Bitcoin's price really reaches this range, it could present an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity, at which point the fear index will also reach an extreme panic state.
Historically, the 50-week moving average has played an important role in Bitcoin's price movements. The last time at $25,000, Bitcoin tested the 50-week moving average, then consolidated and broke upwards; in October last year, Bitcoin again tested the 50-week moving average and began to break upwards in November. Therefore, if Bitcoin's price reaches around $74,000 - $75,000, we have reason to believe this will be an important market turning point.
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin's movements are more pronounced. Yesterday, Bitcoin closed with a long bearish candle, dropping by 5.35%, accompanied by a certain trading volume. This bearish candle has a long body with no wicks, indicating a strong downward trend in the market, and the $90,000 support level is under significant pressure and may not hold.
If $90,000 is lost, in addition to the aforementioned support levels of $74,000 - $75,000, there is also a support level at $81,600, which is the 200-day moving average, also known as the bull-bear dividing line.
The last time Bitcoin's price was at this level, it also experienced a breakdown, and after the breakdown, it failed to lock in a low point. The 50-week moving average on the weekly chart can effectively lock in price movements at critical points, such as at $25,000, where Bitcoin broke down but then regained the 200-day moving average. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to the changes in these key support levels when monitoring Bitcoin's price movements.
ETH: The weekly chart movements of Ethereum are similar to Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum's price is supported at the 200-week moving average, which is around $2,480. Ethereum has previously tested this support level multiple times and is currently in the phase of testing it again.
If this support level fails, Ethereum's price will likely test the previous low point again, around $2,280. Once the price reaches this level, it could be a good entry point for bullish investors, at which point the fear index will also reach an extreme panic state.
Thus, Ethereum is getting closer to a potential buying point, but investors must pay attention to controlling their positions to avoid blindly over-leveraging.
From the daily chart perspective, Ethereum's drop yesterday reached 13.11%, closing with a solid long bearish candle, successfully breaking below the previous level of $2,570. Based on this, the probability of Ethereum testing $2,200 next is very high, and it may even break below this level. Close attention should be paid to Ethereum's price movements in this range to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
KAITO: As a new token, it also showed an upward trend yesterday. Its support level is at $1.55. For students focusing on KAITO, this support level is crucial; if the price retraces to this level, consider whether to enter based on market conditions.
IP was a coin we focused on recently, and it saw a good increase yesterday, forming a long bullish candle. After a period of consolidation, the IP price has risen and is currently still holding strong at 4.7, with a minimum retracement to $3.67 yesterday.
If the IP price continues to decline along with Bitcoin, it could be a good opportunity for everyone to position themselves. Arrange according to your own risk tolerance and goals.
To learn more, you can follow our media account [No. 7 Crypto Academy] or contact our assistant to join the VIP group. You can also gain access to our bottom-fishing and top-exiting column content through sharing, commenting, and liking.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
