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Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis (February 25, 2025)
Market Overview
Price Plunge and Liquidation Wave Today (2025-02-25), the cryptocurrency market experienced severe sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping below $93,000, hitting a low of $91,000 (a new low since mid-January), a daily decline of over 4%; Ethereum plummeted over 11%, dipping to $2,500, the lowest point since February 3. The total liquidation amount across the network reached 6.3 billion RMB, with over 310,000 people liquidated, leading to extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
External Influencing Factors
Geopolitical Risks: Trump claimed that Russia would accept peacekeeping forces to intervene in the Ukraine situation, causing fluctuations in safe-haven assets, with gold hitting new highs and cryptocurrencies facing pressure.
Regulatory Dynamics: South Dakota in the U.S. vetoed a Bitcoin investment bill, and Federal Reserve Governor Barr's remarks on financial stability may exacerbate market caution.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Bitcoin (BTC)
Daily Level: Yesterday closed with a large bearish candle, directly piercing the daily MA120 moving average. It is currently testing the monthly MA5 moving average support ($91,000). If this level is lost, it may further drop to the previous low of $89,000.
The weekly chart is forming a "rounded top" pattern, with prices breaking below the MA5/10 moving averages, confirming a mid-term bearish trend. If the key support at $89,000 is broken, the downward space may further open up.
Short-term Trading Strategy:
Long Position: Enter lightly at $91,000, add to the position on a pullback to $89,500, targeting $92,000-$93,000. Strict stop-loss below $89,000.
Short Position: Set up short positions on a rebound to $93,000-$94,000, targeting $92,000-$91,000, with a stop-loss above $95,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
Daily Level:
The price has broken below the recent consolidation range, with the daily MA30 moving average (around $2,600) becoming a key resistance level. If the rebound cannot break through the $2,580-$2,600 area, the bears will still hold the advantage.
The 4-hour level shows a one-sided decline, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $2,500 support. If lost, it may drop to $2,400 or even lower.
Short-term Trading Strategy:
Long Position: Lightly buy at $2,450, add to the position on a pullback to $2,400, targeting $2,550-$2,600, with a stop-loss at $2,380.
Short Position: Set up short positions in the $2,580-$2,650 range, targeting $2,500-$2,450, with a stop-loss above $2,680.
On-chain Data and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin Holding Changes: Perpetual contracts show a surge in long liquidations and an increase in short positions, with the RSI entering the oversold zone (38), but a technical rebound may occur in the short term. New whales (holding 1,000-10,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 15% month-on-month, indicating new capital entering the market, but short-term selling pressure still dominates.
Ethereum On-chain Activity: Gas fees have dropped to 0.692 Gwei, alleviating network congestion, but the price plunge indicates that selling pressure far exceeds the support from on-chain activity. Recent expansion plans (such as reducing gas fees by 99%) may enhance long-term attractiveness, but short-term attention should be on the psychological level of $2,500.
Long-Short Position Ratio and Capital Flow
Bitcoin Contracts: The long-short ratio on major exchanges is close to balanced (e.g., Binance long-short ratio 51.45%/48.55%), but liquidation data shows a dominance of short positions (24-hour short liquidations at $210 million vs. long liquidations at $94 million).
Ethereum Contracts: The large holder long-short ratio once reached 6:1 (by position size), but after the recent plunge, it may shift to a short-dominated market. Caution is needed for institutional selling pressure after a rebound.
Risk Warning and Strategy Summary
Short-term Risks: Market sentiment is extremely fragile, and any negative news (such as tightening regulations or geopolitical conflicts) may trigger a second decline. If the weekly "rounded top" for Bitcoin is confirmed, the mid-term target may point to $85,000 or even lower.
Trading Recommendations:
Light Position Trading: Current volatility is high, keep positions within 5% to avoid excessive leverage.
Strict Stop-loss: Set stop-loss for long positions below key support (BTC $89,000, ETH $2,400), and short position stop-loss should cover short-term volatility space.
Watch for Rebound Signals: If BTC stabilizes at $93,000 or ETH breaks above $2,580, it can be seen as a sign of bearish exhaustion, adjusting the strategy to cautiously go long.
Conclusion: The current market is in an oversold state, but the trend has not yet reversed. Investors should adopt a defensive strategy, combining key support/resistance levels for swing trading while closely monitoring macroeconomic events that may disrupt sentiment.
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This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. We will continue to monitor market dynamics and update analysis and trading strategies in a timely manner. Thank you for your attention and support. Mainly focused on contracts for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT, specializing in styles, mobile lock-up strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term swings, mid to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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