Key Indicators (February 17, 4 PM -> February 24, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)

• BTC against USD decreased by 0.3% (from $96,150 to $95,900), while ETH against USD increased by 1.3% (from $2,690 to $2,725).

Overview of BTC against USD Spot Technical Indicators

• After a week of low volatility, the spot market successfully absorbed sell orders at the top of the price channel and began testing the resistance level of $99,000 to $100,000 on Friday. However, news of the Bybit hack emerged, prompting many to withdraw their margins, leading to significant selling pressure and a round of liquidations. The market subsequently withstood the impact on the $95,000 support level and gradually retraced to the previous price channel top.

• From here, the next few trading days will determine whether the market is willing to return to the original price channel and establish a new stable pattern; or if it successfully breaks through the price channel, we may see substantial growth in coin prices and witness another attempt at $100,000. On the downside, if the $95,000 support level is lost, the market will likely first test the $93,000 level, followed by the long-held $90,000 to $91,000 resistance level. If the $90,000 to $91,000 resistance level is also lost, we may see a prolonged downward correction in coin prices.

Market Themes

The macro market has passed another calm week. The market remained quite stable until Friday when weak U.S. economic growth data and persistent inflation expectations triggered fears of "stagflation," leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, while bond yields fell due to traditional "safe-haven" sentiment. Overall, the macro backdrop remains stable, and the short-term position adjustments seem somewhat exaggerated in the current low-volatility environment.

The cryptocurrency market continues to seek new narratives, especially as the small-cap market shows considerable weakness. Midweek, news of MSTR raising funds to purchase more Bitcoin boosted the market, with Bitcoin briefly approaching the critical $100,000 level on Friday. However, the news of the Bybit hack, where $1.5 billion worth of ETH was stolen, disrupted the market, triggering a liquidation of many long positions on Bybit. This week, Ethereum fell by 6%, and Bitcoin ended back at $95,000.

BTC Implied Volatility

• This week, implied volatility trends were low, especially for the February to March expiration dates. The consumption of theta and the continuously rolling down implied volatility on the steep term curve led to the capitulation of bullish volatility positions. Actual volatility has recently remained locked in the low 30s, pushing the daily average implied volatility down to 35-36. This is the lowest level since October last year before the elections. As long as coin prices remain within the $94,000 to $99,000 range, we do not expect significant increases in local actual volatility. This should continue to exert pressure on short-term implied volatility.

• In terms of the ATM term structure, the market appears to continue harvesting premiums for further expiration dates (with less Gamma impact). Although we believe there is a premium on the term curve, the curve is likely to remain steep until bullish capitulation occurs for expiration dates in June and beyond.

BTC Skew/Kurtosis

• Following the news of the Bybit hack, the skew for short-term expirations sharply declined. Although the news did not ultimately cause a significant drop in coin prices, we expect the skew to remain at current levels for some time. The skew for the far end of the term structure remains stable and tilted upward, as there are still risks associated with U.S. accumulation of cryptocurrencies and deregulation.

• Kurtosis has been relatively quiet for expiration dates outside the short term. Prices on the upper side of the short term briefly rose after the Bybit news but were only a fleeting moment.

Wishing everyone good luck this week/month!

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