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This week, BTC opened at $96,119.99 and closed at $96,265.98, with a slight increase of 0.15% over the week and a fluctuation of 6.43%. Trading volume has somewhat recovered. The BTC price remains within the "Trump Bottom" (the $89,000~$110,000 range).
Along with U.S. inflation and employment data and Trump's tariff policies, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming one of the core factors influencing the financial markets.
The gradual clarity regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine war is leading to a drop in oil prices and an increase in interest rate cut expectations. However, the Michigan inflation expectations data released on Friday dealt another blow to the market's weak expectations for rate cuts. The two factors counter each other, leading to a negative market outlook.
The three major U.S. stock indices, which rebounded to previous highs, all experienced significant declines, re-establishing a downward trend.
The crypto market witnessed the largest theft in history, with the offshore exchange Bybit, closely linked to the Chinese community, having over $1.46 billion in crypto assets stolen from its cold wallet on February 21. This sudden crisis and inflation expectations caused the BTC, which was nearing a rebound to $100,000, to abruptly halt its rise and return to the $96,000 level.
However, as the clearing process nears completion and adjustments are relatively sufficient, the crypto market did not plunge again amid the compounded crises but instead achieved a slight increase over the week. ETH, which had previously suffered a heavy blow, rebounded by 2.04%.
Regarding the short-term trend in the crypto market, EMC Labs continues to maintain a neutral to slightly positive judgment. Although the U.S. CPI has rebounded, the market has basically completed the pricing adjustment for rate cut expectations, while the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased oil production both point to a reduction in oil prices, suggesting that rate cut expectations may be redefined in the near future.
Macroeconomic and Financial Data
The U.S. and Russia held preliminary talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, discussing the possibility of ending the "Russia-Ukraine War" and achieving breakthrough progress. The negotiating parties are gradually moving closer to a final outcome.
Trump called on OPEC to increase oil production, causing the previously rebounding Brent crude oil prices to plummet by 3.08% on the 21st, erasing the gains for the week.
On Friday, the University of Michigan released February data, indicating that consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to ten years, the highest level since 1995. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index for February fell from 71.7 in January to 64.7. This report reinforced the resilience of rising inflation and further weakened market expectations for rate cuts, becoming the most impactful news for the market this week.
For most of the week, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced small rebounds, gradually approaching previous historical highs. After the release of the Michigan data, the market responded with declines, with the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 dropping 2.51%, 2.51%, and 1.66%, respectively, over the week.
London gold and U.S. ten-year Treasury yields were again driven by safe-haven funds, achieving increases of 1.81% and decreases of 1.11%, respectively, over the week.
Selling Pressure and Liquidation
In terms of selling pressure, both long and short positions sold a total of 135,994 units, continuing to decline, with insufficient buying and selling power. The outflow from exchanges exceeded 10,000 units, with no significant changes in trends.
The floating profit situation for long and short positions remains largely unchanged, with long positions at 289% and short positions at 4%, currently showing no significant selling pressure.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
There is a renewed divergence between stablecoins and BTC Spot ETFs. Stablecoins saw an inflow of $1.117 billion over the week, while BTC ETFs experienced an outflow of over $546 million.
The deteriorating environment in the U.S. stock market has led to continued outflows from BTC Spot ETFs, remaining a major reason for BTC's weakness.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.375, indicating that the market is in a rising continuation phase.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitive advantages, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
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