The magical market always strikes me hard during my takeoff phase. Over the past week, I have perfectly grasped the daily fluctuations of the market, accurately hitting every turning point. I originally thought breaking through 99,000 would allow me to firmly hold onto a bullish trend, but in the end, the Peninsula Sun still bathed me in its grace.
On Friday evening, a hacker attack on the Bybit exchange in the northern Peninsula led to the theft of 1.46 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. That night, the incident triggered collective panic in the crypto circle. Bitcoin quickly reversed and plummeted during the second attempt to break through 99,000, and the market momentarily recalled the fear dominated by FTX. Today, over the weekend, the market has seen a rapid recovery, currently hovering around the 96,200 level. Everyone is worried whether Monday's opening will bring about a second wave of panic selling. Today, I will focus on interpreting my views on the subsequent developments.
Currently, the market is still shrouded in the panic atmosphere of a waterfall crash, with widespread speculation about a potential deeper decline. Here, I must clarify some misconceptions.
The incidents involving the Bybit exchange and FTX are fundamentally different. The former suffered a hacker attack, while the latter involved the misappropriation of customer funds. The level of danger in these two situations cannot be equated. For example, the former is like a thief sneaking into a store and stealing the day's revenue, while the latter is akin to an insider stealing everything from their own store, leaving only an empty shell.
Furthermore, when the theft occurred, the leading exchanges and institutions reacted very quickly, almost simultaneously coming out to support and transferring funds to Bybit to ensure that panic would not lead to a bank run. These big players are well aware that the last bank run triggered by FTX extinguished the crypto market, taking nearly two years for it to regain vitality. If a similar situation were to occur at the beginning of this year's bull market, it would directly scare away the bulls.
Understanding the thoughts of these big players, let's return to another concern: will the 1.46 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin being thrown into the market cause a rapid short-term decline?
My answer is that this is an overreaction. Today, everyone knows that this batch of Bitcoin has been dispersed into 40 wallet addresses. This statement alone reveals the issue. How do we know it has been transferred to 40 wallet addresses? Clearly, after the theft occurred, this batch of Bitcoin has been under surveillance. Regardless of whether these 40 wallet addresses are used for off-exchange or on-exchange transactions, any outflow will be monitored again. If it goes on-exchange, no one will buy it; if it goes off-exchange, no one dares to accept it. Whoever receives it will have their address monitored.
To liquidate this stolen Bitcoin, it can only continue to be dispersed, taking a lot of time to flow into the market in small batches. Such a level of cashing out thrown into the current market would barely make a splash.
Conclusion: This incident should be regarded as a black swan, only affecting the market at that moment and will not have a lasting impact on the crypto circle.
Thus, we can clarify our thinking: the waterfall in the current market cannot be used as a basis for predicting future trends. The market still maintains its original rhythm and will quickly return to the right track.
In the original framework of my analysis, Friday was supposed to break 99,000 temporarily, consuming a wave of short stop-losses, followed by a second breakthrough leading to a unilateral rise.
On Friday night, the first step of temporarily breaking 99,000 to sweep out short stop-losses has been completed, but the second step of the breakthrough was interrupted by the black swan event.
Therefore, since next week's market is set to return to the right track, it will pick up the interrupted rhythm, which means breaking through 99,000 and completing a unilateral rise.
If anyone is still unclear, let me illustrate with a chart.
Currently, the market is consolidating, with short-term upward trendline support at 95,800. Today and tomorrow, we should rely on this position to go long in the 95,800-95,500 range, with a stop-loss at 95,000 and a target of reducing positions at 99,000, looking up to 100,500.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
