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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Strategies (February 21, 2025, Afternoon)
Market Macro Background
Cryptocurrency ETF and Institutional Fund Trends Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been significantly affected by ETF fund flows. Data shows that on February 20, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $365 million, and Grayscale's GBTC saw a single-day outflow of $33.52 million, which may exert pressure on short-term prices. However, in the long term, Invesco analysts believe that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, and the cryptocurrency industry may reach new highs in 2025, with the influx of ETF institutions remaining a key driving force. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have recently shown net inflows, with a single-day inflow of 2,680 ETH (approximately $7.35 million) on February 12, indicating a temporary market confidence in ETH.
Policy and Regulatory Dynamics
The Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions has announced tighter regulations on bank cryptocurrency risk, which may suppress short-term market speculation.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expected to release a virtual asset development roadmap this month, clarifying regulatory principles and optimization directions, which may inject medium to long-term benefits into the Asian market.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Daily Level
After two consecutive days of closing in the green, the price has reached the daily MA60 (approximately $98,500) and is approaching the MA30 ($99,000) resistance zone. If it effectively breaks through and stabilizes above $99,000, it will confirm the resumption of the bullish trend, targeting above $100,000; conversely, it may retrace to oscillate in the $97,000-$99,000 range.
Key Reference: In November 2024, Bitcoin broke through $99,000 to create a historical high, but subsequently faced selling pressure at the psychological level of $100,000, necessitating caution against similar resistance effects.
4-Hour Level
The current price is close to the MA256 moving average (approximately $99,300), which resonates with the daily MA30 as a pressure point. If the rebound strength is insufficient, it may trigger a pullback, with support levels to watch at $97,000 (4-hour MA120) and $95,000 (daily MA60).
Funding Verification: The BTC contract open interest has recently decreased by 2.01%, with a long-short ratio of 49.36%/50.64%, indicating a slight advantage for bears.
Success Rate Statistics
The $98,500-$99,000 range has been tested multiple times from November 2024 to February 2025, with a short-term success rate of about 40% after breaking through, mainly due to a large number of trapped positions above $100,000. If the breakout fails, the pullback could reach 2,000 points (to $97,000).
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Daily Level
The price is maintaining above the MA5/10 (between $2,730 and $2,750), but the MA5 and MA10 have formed a short-term death cross, necessitating caution against pullback risks. The upper pressure is at the previous high of $2,800-$2,850, which triggered multiple sell-offs in January 2024.
Key Support: Daily MA30 ($2,700) and 4-hour MA120 ($2,730); if broken, it may retrace to $2,650.
4-Hour Level
After standing above the MA120 ($2,730), the price is oscillating upward. If it breaks through $2,800, it is expected to test the $2,850 resistance. Historical data shows that after breaking through the $2,800-$2,850 range, ETH can see a short-term increase of 5%-8% (as it rose to $2,950 in August 2024).
Open Interest Changes: ETH contract open interest has increased by 1.84%, with a long-short ratio close to balance (50.15%/49.85%), reflecting market wait-and-see sentiment.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management
Bitcoin (BTC)
Long Position: Enter lightly at the current price of $98,000-$98,300, with a stop loss at $97,000 and a target near $99,300.
Short Position: Gradually build short positions above $99,500, with a stop loss at $101,000 and a target looking for a 2,000-point pullback to $97,500.
Breakout Confirmation: If it breaks through and stabilizes at $99,300 with volume, additional long positions can be added, targeting $102,000 (previous daily high).
Ethereum (ETH)
Long Position: Enter lightly at the current price of $2,730-$2,750, with a stop loss at $2,700 and a target of $2,800-$2,830.
Short Position: Gradually short in the $2,830-$2,860 range, with a stop loss at $2,900 and a target of a 60-100 point pullback to $2,750.
Breakout Response: If the ETH/BTC exchange rate rises above 0.028, it may drive an independent ETH market, and caution is advised for short positions.
Market News and Data Verification
Fund Flows: The net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs and the net inflow of Ethereum ETFs show a divergence, reflecting a short-term preference shift towards ETH.
Exchange Dynamics: Binance has removed trading pairs such as ALGO/USDT, which may lead to a decrease in altcoin liquidity, indirectly benefiting mainstream coins.
On-Chain Data: Whale addresses have recently increased their holdings in ETH, while BTC large holders have decreased their positions, necessitating caution regarding changes in chip distribution.
Summary
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing critical pressure tests in the short term, with technical and funding aspects showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a range oscillation strategy in operations, following the trend after breaking through key levels. Close attention should be paid to ETF fund flows, regulatory policies, and large holder position changes to guard against sudden volatility risks.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly oscillating, accompanied by intermittent spikes, so when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link later.
Mainly focused on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT
Specializing in strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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