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Last night, I had a long phone conversation with a longtime fan friend, reminiscing about some profound experiences in the crypto circle over the past few years. To be honest, many friends in the crypto circle should have had similar experiences; many suffered significant losses on August 5th last year and February 3rd this year.

These were directly caused by Japan's interest rate hikes, leading to liquidation; one careless move and you get pricked by a big needle, it’s simply heart-wrenching! Anyway, I’ve experienced liquidation twice and I really don’t want to suffer a third time. So we must remember not to make the same mistakes again.

Setting aside Japan's interest rate hikes, the opportunities for liquidation aren't that frequent, but we should set alarms for the timing of these hikes and start positioning for short trades as the date approaches. Especially for Ethereum, it’s simply a great opportunity to short, without setting take-profit levels, straightforward and brutal.

Everyone can take a look; the timing of Japan's interest rate hikes this year is around July 31st, so we need to prepare in advance. As for the Federal Reserve, it is expected to cut rates on June 19th, with the current probability of a 25 basis point cut being about 43.6%, but the probability of no cut in March is 99% (essentially negligible).

The probability of no cut in May is also 80.4%. So there might be an opportunity to escape the peak between June and July, with the high point possibly appearing before the June 19th meeting. Remember, the market usually reacts in advance. Therefore, the market from August to September will likely be in this kind of volatile state, repeatedly fluctuating.

Then from October to December, there might be a wave of upward movement, similar to a sprint before the end of the world. After that, on December 19th or January 24th next year, Japan will raise interest rates again, and the bull market will abruptly stop, directly entering the next bear market, followed by several waves of one-sided declines, just wait and see.

However, the price trend has been a bit poor in the past two weeks, but from a macro perspective, there aren’t any obvious bearish signals. Although the macro economy isn’t particularly ideal, it’s all within expectations.

On the contrary, there have been continuous positive policies recently. Although these positives haven’t immediately reflected in prices, the push from policies is still beneficial for cryptocurrencies. Although it still feels a bit off, it’s really just a matter of finding a breakthrough point; if this point isn’t smoothly reached, the price may continue to fluctuate.

Now let’s talk about Bitcoin; it reached a high of around 98,662 early this morning. The pressure is gradually increasing; although it has rebounded, the volume of the rise is relatively small. If it can’t close above 98k, it will continue to drop. If it can hold above 98,000 for 48 hours without falling, then I can consider turning bullish.

Additionally, for us retail investors, we shouldn’t always wait for the wind to come; if the Federal Reserve doesn’t inject liquidity, nothing will happen. You can see that the overall market cap of the crypto circle is already at 3.3 trillion dollars; the highest market cap in the last bull market was also around 3 trillion, when the Federal Reserve was pouring in liquidity. And now?

Now you will see various altcoins flooding the market, diluting overall liquidity. Whether it’s altcoin season or a bubble, in the end, it all depends on your obsession. Looking back at the bull market in 2021, there were actually more people losing money than making money. I myself bought quite a few losing altcoins in 2021 and missed several opportunities.

So we must not forget the lessons of the past; remember that human nature's weakness is "once the scar heals, the pain is forgotten." Ultimately, we need to compare ourselves to ourselves; tomorrow’s me will be better than today, rather than thinking I need to surpass Buffett.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

First Resistance Level: 99,300

Second Resistance Level: 98,400

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 97,700

Second Support Level: 97,000

Today's Suggestions:

Bitcoin is currently hovering around 98K after a rebound. Even if there is a rebound in the short term, don’t expect it to be the start of a significant rebound. Be cautious of a 30% reverse trend and manage risks accordingly.

If it breaks through the first resistance level, it may enter a phase of higher peaks, with a retest of 99K possibly becoming a viable point. If it breaks through 99K, there may be a rapid surge in the short term due to rising expectations.

However, if it breaks through 99K, the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, so the probability of a correction is high. If a better buying price can be obtained below, one can choose to take profits and sell in batches.

The first support is a suitable adjustment range. If it can maintain support in the 97.7K~98K area, then the rebound view can be maintained. If a long bearish candle breaks through the first and second support levels, in contrast, a small bearish candle rebound and the continuity of adjustments may be seen as an opportunity for very short-term entry.

Within the adjustment range, pay attention to the first and second support levels, and set corresponding response ranges, following the order of the 120, 60, and 20-day moving averages to set trading strategies.

2.21 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long in the 96,800-97,700 range, Target: 98,400-99,300

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 99,300-99,900 range, Target: 98,400-97,700

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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