Index Thinking in Cryptocurrency: Leverage, Asymmetric Bets, and Personal Growth

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1 day ago

Original Title: A Guide To Exponential Thinking In Crypto: Leverage, Asymmetric Bets, And Personal Growth

Original Author: Route 2 FI (@Route2FI)

Translation by: Asher (@Asher0210_)

Exponential Thinking in Cryptocurrency: Leverage, Asymmetric Bets, and Personal Growth

Editor’s Note: This article explores how to break linear thinking in the cryptocurrency space, leveraging and compounding for exponential growth, building a personal brand, and achieving long-term wealth and success in the crypto industry through continuous enhancement of specialized knowledge and a willingness to take risks. It also emphasizes how to accumulate results through patience, innovation, and strategy in this emerging industry, leveraging the characteristics of the crypto market to achieve significant returns.

The following is the original content (reorganized for better readability):

Many people habitually think that investing X hours will earn them Y amount and produce Z quantity of products/services. In other words, their thinking is linear, believing that every bit of effort and time invested will yield corresponding returns. However, is this way of thinking correct? In fact, pure linear thinking does not take into account an important factor—leverage and compounding.

When you introduce the concepts of leverage and time, returns are no longer simple addition but rather the accumulation of compounding. The principle of compounding is that the results are not solely based on the effort and resources you invest, but rather increase exponentially over time. If you simply add 10 + 10 + 10 + 10… you will get 90. But if you calculate the growth of a 10% annual interest rate over 40 years, many people might mistakenly think it is 400%, that is, 10% added 10%… 40 times, but the answer is not so.

The true answer of compounding is: 4,525%. This means that if you invest $100,000 in an asset and maintain a 10% annual return, after 40 years, this investment will grow to $4,525,000. This growth is a direct result of compounding; it is not linear growth but exponentially magnified over time. Even in the cryptocurrency field, although this seems relatively conservative, it is enough to illustrate the powerful effect of compounding.

Exponential Thinking in Cryptocurrency: Leverage, Asymmetric Bets, and Personal Growth

Through this example, we can see that true wealth growth does not rely on short-term linear thinking but is achieved through continuous use of leverage and accumulation of compounding. In cryptocurrency investment and other financial fields, mastering the power of compounding is essential for achieving substantial wealth appreciation in the long term.

Using Leverage in Your Life to Get Ahead

Most people have a too realistic view of life, often seeing their efforts and returns as a linear relationship. However, true success often relies on the use of leverage, which can help you break through linear growth and move towards exponential growth. There are many forms of leverage, such as capital, technology, branding, network effects, and managing others. By effectively utilizing these levers, you can get ahead in life and your career, breaking traditional limitations.

When choosing a career, you should prioritize fields that can leverage and achieve compounding. A typical 9-to-5 job, without equity incentives, is unlikely to yield returns beyond a certain limit. Choosing to start a business, join a startup team, or find a position that offers flexible roles can give you more opportunities to grow while accumulating sustainable wealth and influence. In these environments, you can learn valuable skills and apply them to your future career or your own entrepreneurial ventures.

In modern society, building a personal brand is one of the best ways to apply leverage. I have personally experienced this process and am amazed by the results I have created. Through a personal brand, you can share your thoughts, perspectives, and experiences, attracting like-minded individuals with similar interests and goals. Through content creation, you not only showcase your knowledge but also leave a profound impact on others. Practical experience and practice are far more valuable than learning from academic theories.

Ultimately, you must learn to apply leverage in everything and start thinking long-term about how to achieve exponential growth through the compounding effects of knowledge, skills, and mindset. Everyone should dare to dream and think bigger. Those who believe they can change the world will ultimately achieve their goals through persistence and innovation.

On Taking Risks and Making Asymmetric Bets

Once your basic needs are met, you should dare to take some big risks. I like a unique way of planning life, which is to determine the amount of funds you need using the formula “monthly expenses x 12 months x 25.” This number's 4% should be enough to support you living normally, meaning you can withdraw 4% from your portfolio without ever reducing the principal to zero, assuming a 10% annual return. However, if you are young and have few responsibilities and expenses, it is worth taking risks even without much savings.

When making decisions, ask yourself what the worst outcome is. Most of the time, the worst-case scenario is that you return to square one, which isn’t too bad. But if you succeed, the return could be 10 times your current wealth or even more. This applies not only to money but also to the skills and opportunities you gain. The key is to make asymmetric bets—those that can yield 10 to 100 times the return if successful, but have smaller losses if they fail.

Conversely, avoid those risks that offer small returns if you are right but could lead to huge losses if you are wrong. In the long run, prioritize long-term gains over short-term comfort (e.g., a stable monthly salary). Survival and stability are important, but more importantly, invest in opportunities that can yield long-term returns.

Many people become quite comfortable at work, and as salaries increase, the temptation to take risks gradually diminishes. However, the opportunity cost is also increasing. In fact, most people can return to their original jobs or find similar positions with unchanged salaries after a failed attempt. Therefore, do not fear failure; after all, short-term comfort and long-term growth are often a trade-off, and true wealth comes from daring to take risks and long-term accumulation.

What Do You Really Want?

You may have heard the saying: “Give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.” This emphasizes the importance of planning ahead and thinking deeply when making significant decisions and choosing what to focus on. If you are pondering what you should focus on or what you should prioritize in the coming year, spending a few days quietly reflecting and creating a practical plan is far more effective than rushing to start and going with the flow.

As the quote from “Alice in Wonderland” goes: “If you don’t know where you want to go, then it doesn’t matter which way you take.” This reminds us that what truly matters is spending time thinking about the goals of your life and clarifying what you really want to do. Many people could create wonderful things if they had more confidence. Unfortunately, many people watch videos of life improvement on social media, absorbing these ideas but often taking no action. You might feel enriched by watching videos, but this is essentially no different from watching a TV show; it’s just a brief dopamine hit.

Have you ever asked yourself if you are doing anything beneficial for long-term growth? Or are all the things you do based on short-term pleasures? Activities like food, sex, exercise, entertainment, dating, gaming, drugs, and alcohol are not inherently wrong, but the problem is that life cannot revolve entirely around these activities. After all, you are not a monkey; you have the ability to delay gratification, which is key to growth and success.

Truly beneficial long-term activities that can yield higher returns include learning a new language, starting a business, completing a marathon, obtaining a degree, moving to another country, writing a book, learning skills to change careers, investing, losing weight, and building a personal brand. These activities not only provide long-term satisfaction but also propel you toward higher goals, laying the foundation for future success.

Advice for Those with Limited Capital Just Entering Cryptocurrency

In the crypto industry, endurance may be the most important skill. If you are willing to invest 12 to 14 hours a day to learn and improve, even with limited capital, time remains your most valuable asset. Regardless of whether you choose to focus on writing, trading, research, NFTs, airdrops, YouTube, Telegram, podcasts, etc., the key is to find a direction that suits your interests and strengths. If you excel at writing, X, newsletters, and Telegram are good choices; if you are better at verbal expression, YouTube and podcasts may be more suitable. The most important thing is to keep learning and continuously strive to improve yourself.

Once you have identified your strengths, the next question is: can these skills be monetized? If they are not mature enough, you can gain experience through internships. Internships may offer lower pay, but they provide opportunities to connect with industry elites, gain insider knowledge, and accumulate experience. If your skills are strong enough, you can choose to start your own business or apply for positions at crypto companies. While the path to making money on your own is challenging and requires a significant time investment, if you believe that long-term returns will far exceed those of conventional jobs, then entrepreneurship may be a direction worth exploring. On the other hand, applying for company positions can provide more stable income, especially during bull markets, where company salaries may far exceed traditional jobs, and you can use your spare time to continue developing your side projects.

In the crypto industry, X is an extremely important platform; it acts like your personal resume. By writing, interacting, and sharing on X, you can attract top industry figures and build valuable connections. By consistently tweeting every day, actively engaging with others, and even offering advice without expecting anything in return, you can build a reputation and increase your visibility. Many crypto companies and recruiters look for potential talent through X, so establishing a strong presence on this platform is crucial for your career development.

For those looking to profit from trading, trading is a high-risk, high-reward skill. Successful traders are often able to identify inefficiencies in the market and opportunities that others overlook. The crypto market differs from the stock market in that it reacts more slowly, especially during major news events. While there are many retail investors in the market, those who possess market insight and technical analysis skills often reap the greatest rewards. Learning to identify market cycles and trend fluctuations, as well as cultivating self-control and patience, will be key to becoming a successful trader.

Finally, it is worth noting that the market is filled with many different voices. You need to learn to discern which advice is worth adopting and which is merely aimed at profiting from your investments. Especially in low market cap coins, price fluctuations are greater, and the risks of advice are higher. Therefore, maintaining rationality and vigilance, and avoiding blindly following trends, is the foundation for success in the crypto market.

Why is it Valuable to Be a Leader in a Field?

The process of finding your ultimate goal is very interesting. Looking back, I used to work 50 to 60 hours a week at a corporate job; I didn’t mind the long hours, but I hated that what I was doing had no impact on my life. Nowadays, every hour I invest in work will ultimately yield returns. Although I may not succeed every time, all the results belong to me. This motivates me to do better because only I can make it successful. If I don’t put in the effort, the momentum I’ve built will stagnate.

Becoming part of the top 10% in a field is not difficult; the key is to invest a lot of time and effort. However, if you want to enter the top 1 to 2%, it requires not only hard work but also working smart. Looking back, if I could outsource more work or give up some of the content I enjoy, I might be able to scale more efficiently. But I love what I’m doing now, so I’m not in a hurry to maximize profits. Writing and sharing with everyone is a process I enjoy; it’s not just about making money but also about fulfillment and growth.

Life is long, so don’t be afraid to pursue what you truly want. Don’t settle; this applies not only to your career but also to your partners and friends. If you want your life to be filled with luck, you must first be prepared for its arrival. Luck often finds you while you are working hard, rather than descending upon you while you wait.

“What do I really want?” Many times, we think about what we lack, but what’s truly worth reflecting on is, “How much effort have you put in to achieve these goals?” Many people hesitate to start because they fear failure or think a certain field is saturated. In fact, most people fail to start because they lack clear goals and steps, focusing too much on the end result while neglecting the courage to begin.

Gaining Exclusive Knowledge

You need exclusive knowledge, which is knowledge that only you possess. The simplest way to create exclusive knowledge is to build a personal brand. By consistently publishing content, you can attract a community that belongs to you. Although I know I’m not the best writer, I choose to maintain consistency, opting to publish at 80% completion rather than striving for perfection, ensuring that I can efficiently produce content.

To gain exclusive knowledge, it is crucial to dare to express unique viewpoints. Some people will appreciate your distinctive style. You should focus on your strengths rather than trying to compensate for your weaknesses. Instead of pouring energy into improving your weak points, invest your time and effort into things you are naturally good at; this way, you are more likely to stand out in a particular field.

True satisfaction comes from doing things you are intrinsically motivated to do, rather than just working for money. When you no longer work for money, you will find that you can focus more on achieving personal goals. You can ask yourself, if money were not an issue, what would you choose to do? This question can help you reflect on whether you are doing what you truly love.

In the early stages of your career, especially in your 20s or 30s, be bold in taking risks and pursuing fields that genuinely interest you. By surrounding yourself with the top people in the areas you are interested in, you can continuously grow and gain inspiration. Social networks, such as the X platform, can help you find like-minded individuals and build connections; these people may become important partners on your future career path.

Overall, by doing these things, you can establish a personal brand, focus on your strengths, pursue your inner passion, and grow alongside the best through continuous effort.

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