Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis on February 19 and Interpretation of the SOL Unlock Event Impact

1. Current Market Sentiment and Background

As of February 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is generally showing a volatile pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have entered a weak adjustment phase after experiencing a double whammy of bulls and bears the previous day. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) is set to undergo a large-scale token unlock on March 1 (112 million tokens, accounting for 23% of the total supply, valued at approximately $263 billion), an event that has raised market concerns about liquidity tightening and may indirectly affect the short-term trends of BTC and ETH.

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2. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis

Daily Level

Key Support: The MA120-day moving average ($93,500) has become an important defense line recently. The price rebounded after testing this level yesterday, indicating the bulls' defensive willingness in this area.

Resistance Level: The MA5/10-day moving averages ($96,500-$97,000) form short-term resistance, and a breakthrough would require attention to the psychological level of $100,000.

Pattern Signal: If the price tests $93,500 again and stabilizes, it may form a double bottom structure, providing momentum for a rebound; conversely, if it falls below $93,500, it may test support at $92,000 or even $90,000.

4-Hour Level

The current price is under pressure near the MA30/60 moving averages ($96,500), and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through this resistance zone to confirm the return of short-term bulls.

Trading Strategy:

Short Position: Enter lightly at $96,000, add to the position at $96,800 on a rebound, target $94,000-$93,500.

Long Position: Gradually build a position between $93,500-$94,000, stop loss at $93,000, target above $96,000.

3. Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis

Daily Level

Support Level: The MA60-day moving average ($2,670) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($2,550) form a double support, and the recent low of $2,445 shows buying resilience.

Resistance Level: The MA120-day moving average ($2,780) and the psychological level of $3,000 require volume confirmation for a breakthrough.

4-Hour Level

The price is oscillating narrowly between $2,670-$2,780, and the MACD indicator shows insufficient momentum, necessitating caution against false breakout risks.

Trading Strategy:

Short Position: Enter lightly at $2,700, add to the position at $2,750 on a rebound, target $2,600-$2,550.

Long Position: Look for opportunities to enter below $2,600, stop loss at $2,500, short-term target $2,700.

4. Potential Impact of the SOL Unlock Event on the Market

Direct Impact:

The scale of the SOL unlock reaches $263 billion, and short-term selling pressure may lead its price to further test key support levels ($215→$194→$172).

Ripple Effect: If SOL experiences a significant drop, it may trigger capital outflow from the altcoin sector, with some risk-averse funds possibly shifting to BTC/ETH, but caution is needed regarding overall liquidity contraction due to worsening market sentiment.

Opportunities and Risks for BTC/ETH:

Positive Factors: BTC's attribute as a "safe-haven asset" is strengthening. If the volatility triggered by SOL does not spread to mainstream coins, capital inflow may drive BTC/ETH rebounds.

Risk Factors: If market panic intensifies, BTC/ETH may be dragged down below key support levels, necessitating close monitoring of the fear and greed index (currently in a neutral range).

5. Comprehensive Strategy Recommendations

Short-Term Trading:

Both BTC and ETH should focus on "short first, then long," positioning short positions based on resistance levels and reversing to long after testing support levels.

Strictly set stop losses (BTC short stop loss at $97,000, long stop loss at $93,000; ETH short stop loss at $2,800, long stop loss at $2,500).

Medium to Long-Term Positioning:

If BTC stabilizes above $96,500, gradually increase positions targeting $100,000; if ETH breaks above $2,800, target $3,000.

After the SOL event, if the price stabilizes at technical support levels (e.g., $194), consider left-side positioning.

6. Conclusion

The current market is at a critical juncture of bulls and bears, with the technical support of BTC/ETH and the macro impact of the SOL unlock event creating a tug-of-war. Investors need to prioritize risk control, flexibly adjust positions, and pay attention to market liquidity changes before and after March 1. If BTC/ETH can hold support and break through resistance, there is still room for a rebound in the short term; conversely, systemic correction risks should be monitored closely.

This article is independently written by (Coin Victory Group). Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find Coin Victory Group across the internet. Given that recent market trends are primarily characterized by volatility, accompanied by intermittent spikes, it is crucial for everyone to manage take-profit and stop-loss effectively when trading. In the future, when facing significant market data trends, Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find Coin Victory Group online.

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