Original Title: 《What if $MELANIA was never launched?》
Original Author: 0xFinish, member of 0xTrack
Original Compilation: Rhythm BlockBeats
Editor's Note: The author reviews the birth of PumpFun, the differences between the Bitcoin halving, the scams of 2021 and today, how to adapt to new market cycles, and reminds investors to be aware of limited liquidity in the current market environment, to have a clear selling strategy, and to follow the narrative closely during market rotations to avoid excessive FOMO. At the same time, always keep some profits in stablecoins and continue to accumulate long-term quality assets like BTC.
The following is the original content (reorganized for better readability):
This cycle is very difficult, worse than any previous cycle. Many people even call it a "criminal cycle" due to the increasing number of "rug pulls" and scams that are concerning.
The purpose of this article is to look back at the past and try to predict what challenges we, who just want to succeed, will face next.
The Birth of PumpFun
On January 19, 2024, PumpFun was born, forever changing the landscape of meme coins. Everyone got the opportunity to launch tokens, regardless of their age, profession, or nationality.
At that time, the hype was not high, but PumpFun began to gain momentum in March 2024, with early projects like $MICHI and $FWOG. Anyone could launch a meme coin in seconds, which changed the entire market.
As more and more tokens emerged, PumpFun became a fair issuance platform without insiders profiting at the expense of others. Although it seemed attractive, the withdrawal fees were enormous.
Since its launch, PumpFun has earned over 2.86 million $SOL, approximately $577 million. It may be one of the most successful startup projects in history.
This liquidity was permanently withdrawn and pocketed by PumpFun's developers. But I believe this is an important reason that makes this cycle different. We will explore this further later.
Bitcoin Halving
Next is a significant moment in the current cycle. On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward was halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. When the first ETF was approved on January 10, 2024, many thought it might be a "sell the news" event, but in reality, we saw a new ATH.
ETF + halving is the strongest bullish combination for BTC, as many have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start flowing into the market. And that’s exactly what happened. Fidelity, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy are buying daily, continuously injecting liquidity into the market.
This gave people hope. They thought this bull market would be similar to previous ones, but this time, everything was different.
The market is always in opposition to the public, meaning if retail investors are bullish, the market is likely to drop, and vice versa. Perhaps this is what is happening here, and we are about to reveal it.
Your Expectations Are the Problem
Looking back at the cycles of 2017 and 2021, the situations were very similar. Making money was not difficult and did not require any special knowledge. There were 10-20 mainstream coins that everyone knew, and everyone was accumulating them.
First, BTC would rise, then ETH would follow as the beta asset of the cycle, usually with higher returns, and then we would shift from ETH to other mainstream coins, and then to some smaller coins.
This is also why many people decided to skip the BTC phase in 2024 and invest directly in ETH or other altcoins; the logic is simple. If ETH can rise 5 times, and larger altcoins can rise 10 times, why wait for 2-3 times returns on BTC?
This logic is very straightforward; however, the "public" did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and meme coins is 100 times that of before, and everyone rushed to buy familiar tokens like $DOT, $ATOM, and $ADA, waiting for the promised 10x returns.
As a result, when liquidity began to flow into altcoins, the sheer number of new projects left the old ones behind.
The Scams of 2021 Are Different from Now
I just saw @Overdose_AI make a valid point and decided to add it here. Back in 2021, the scammers behind "rug pulls" were quite creative; as long as they were not too greedy, they almost allowed everyone to jump ship.
Terra $LUNA was controlled by Do Kwon
FTX was controlled by Sam Fried
3AC invested for a long time before collapsing
Alameda pushed different narratives and manipulated the market
Scamming back then was relatively difficult and required a certain level of intelligence. Now, people simply use big names, celebrities, and even rulers of major countries to promote their junk projects.
People have become accustomed to gambling, FOMOing into $TRUMP and $MELANIA, deciding to recoup losses through $CAR or $LIBRA, only to end up losing all their money.
I know 10 to 15 excellent traders who once invested in $LIBRA through DCA, seizing opportunities and waiting for a pullback, while insiders made over $100 million off them.
It's Time to Adapt
It's time to understand that cycles will never be exactly the same; altcoins are not just the beta of BTC or ETH; they represent a completely different sub-market that brings more risks and more opportunities.
You cannot just continue to go long on $DOT or $ATOM just because BTC has hit a new high, as that was effective in 2021.
Don't get me wrong; I still have faith in BTC and believe it will remain one of the best compounding assets in the next 10 to 20 years, but the returns will resemble those of stocks, no longer the easy 200% annual growth.
Conclusions to Remember in This Cycle
Holding coins in anticipation of a price increase is foolish; if you don't sell at the right time, you're done. @MustStopMurad has been telling you to hold, while almost all of his meme coins have dropped 80%-90% since their ATH.
You need to have a clear selling strategy. I know this may sound harsh, but that's how the market works; you must determine when to exit before making a trade.
Rotate narratives; recently, we have experienced crazy market rotations from meme coins to AI agents, and then to $TRUMP. If at any point you did not keep up, you can almost guarantee that most of your gains will be wiped out. Always follow the market narrative and remember that liquidity is limited.
"Timely" is always better than "early." Don't overthink it; find the right moment to enter, but don't be overly anxious while waiting.
Always convert a portion of your profits into stablecoins; no matter how much you believe in a certain protocol, continuing to accumulate BTC is still a better opportunity than most stocks or real estate.
To be honest, I don't know whether we will go down or up next; I currently have positions on both sides. If the market drops, I will continue to buy more BTC and $ETH.
If the market rises, I have enough altcoins to avoid FOMO, and I know I can profit from trading and help my followers.
I hope this cycle is not over yet; the current consolidation of BTC will determine our trajectory for the next 2-3 months.
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