After Solana's rapid rise, has the public chain battle come to a pause?

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4 days ago

Rewinding back to the previous market cycle, in 2021, the Crypto market entered a bull market, with applications like DeFi, NFT, and GameFi rapidly emerging. At that time, Ethereum exposed its limitations due to issues like transaction congestion and high fees. This provided a breakthrough opportunity for a new generation of public chains, leading to the emergence of numerous public chain projects, such as Solana, BNB Chain, Polkadot, Avalanche, and FTM, all attempting to challenge Ethereum's dominance.

These emerging public chains not only compete in consensus mechanisms, transaction speeds, and scalability solutions, but also engage in an incentivized competition on how to attract developers, build communities, and gain capital favor, which is also referred to as the "public chain war."

Although the advantages among various chains have been constantly shifting in the short term, this public chain war has not only greatly advanced blockchain technology but also diversified the entire Crypto ecosystem, laying the groundwork for the rise of new public chains like Aptos and Sui.

However, four years after the outbreak of this public chain war, it seems that people can no longer see this grand scene. Over the past few years, only Solana has climbed out of the trough, becoming another leading public chain with a remarkable lead. Coupled with the various issues facing Ethereum itself, Solana even posed a threat to Ethereum's position at one point. Although there is still about a 60% market cap gap, the market seems to have greater expectations for Solana.

What about other public chains? We can gain an overall understanding through the comparison of market caps of several popular public chains from that year and their current status in the table below.

After Solana's remarkable rise, has the public chain battle come to a close?

It can be seen that, in terms of market cap, Solana and BNB are still relatively strong, with little difference between them, but other public chains are still "struggling" to climb, including Ethereum.

In the past week, CZ has started to hint wildly that BNB Chain will undergo various transformations and innovations in 2025, continuously tweeting to promote it, and during the guessing game involving CZ's pet dog Broccoli, there was a small climax, indicating a preparation to challenge Solana's glory from the past year.

Of course, besides these established public chains making efforts to promote themselves, emerging public chains like Sui and Bera are also striving to catch up. However, it seems that for the current market, people's expectations for public chains are no longer just about faster and better performance requirements; they are gradually transforming into whether they can experience truly applicable products. But this path is indeed fraught with thorns. Without the MEME craze of the past year, who knows how Solana would have fared?

After all, when it comes to products, no public chain currently has a flagship application. To create innovative products that meet market demands (PMF) and can be popular, aside from stablecoins and a few DeFi applications, other directions still lack novelty, even the once-hot Agent has fallen into a new "death spiral."

Returning to the present, for the operators of public chains, the public chain war is no longer limited to the marketing and reward battles of the past; it has transformed into a genuine product refinement competition. We can also say that MEME is a form of product, but pure MEME is not a long-term solution. On-chain PVP will eventually become tiresome, and it will ultimately return to the users (community) and the products themselves.

Therefore, looking back at the public chain war of 2021, we may never return to that summer. What we can hope for is a scene similar to the "Battle of the Hundred Groups" in the early days of the internet, where the competition will ultimately be about users, operations, and implementation. After all, L2 can also be considered a form of public chain, and the competition may be even greater than we expect.

Finally, from an investment perspective, certain logical choices regarding public chains still apply. For example, Solana is focusing on MEME, and other chains can do the same; SUI is focusing on games, and other chains can also pursue that. The market is still large enough, and wherever there is a wealth creation effect, there will be users. This increases the probability of creating viable products because the market adheres to the logic of having prices before products. This trend is unlikely to change anytime soon, as summer has not yet arrived.

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