Author: Route 2 FI, Substack
Compiled by: BitpushNews Yanan
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound transformation, especially for newcomers who have only entered the field in the past 12 to 16 months.
What once seemed like a relatively straightforward trading method—operating on centralized exchanges to "get half a foot into success"—has now become increasingly complex. The entire market landscape resembles a high-volatility gambling arena rather than a traditional financial trading market, placing unprecedented demands on traders' agility and market awareness.
The once-reliable "buy and hold" (HODL) strategy has now largely failed. The holding period for assets has drastically shortened, from several months to just a few weeks or even days. (Remember the classic advice from veteran players? Stick to "buying altcoins at low prices and holding until the bull market peak to sell.")
The main reason for this change is the emergence of new projects and tokens like mushrooms after rain, competing for market attention and capital flow, constantly challenging the status of established projects, making market competition fiercer and the market situation more volatile.
Even events traditionally seen as positive can trigger unexpected market reactions. For example, Trump's high-profile launch of a meme coin may bring a large number of new users and attention to the entire crypto space, but it could also lead to significant price drops for many altcoins. Typically, the beneficiaries of such events are limited to Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and the meme coin itself. Many crypto investors have come to realize this through "paying tuition"—if their portfolios lack significant holdings in BTC and SOL, they are likely to face substantial asset depreciation.
Similar market dynamics were observed when Berachain announced its launch, which impacted the Abstract ecosystem as market attention and funds quickly shifted to the former. In the face of this high volatility and uncertainty, the safest strategy is to accept that this volatility will become the norm and to recognize that as new tokens, new public chains, and new projects continue to emerge, market fluctuations may further intensify.
Currently, many investors are readjusting their strategies, gradually increasing their holdings of BTC and stablecoins while significantly reducing their long-term positions in altcoins. The market's focus is shifting from the idea of "long-term investment" in altcoins to a more short-term opportunity-focused "trading" strategy.
One of the core goals for participants in the current cycle is to avoid becoming the last buyer of a failed project, watching its price go to zero. In the latter half of the current market cycle, any long-term investment in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC) may not yield the desired risk-return profile. While altcoins may be nearing their bottoms, the likelihood of all coins, NFTs, and ecosystems collectively reaching new highs is becoming increasingly slim.
Every day, a large number of new coins are issued, which not only disperses market attention but also makes capital more fragmented, making it difficult for older projects to rise again.
This round of the crypto market cycle is particularly challenging, with market uncertainty more pronounced than ever. In the past, investors generally believed that popular altcoins would eventually rebound after a crash, but now, that confidence is wavering.
During the market cycles of 2017 and 2021, investors were generally willing to bottom-fish their favored altcoins during market downturns, provided that these projects had a market cap that was not too small (usually not less than $100 million). The consensus at that time was that these coins' prices would at least rebound within that cycle. Tokens that gained market recognition early often maintained their advantages until the cycle ended.
However, this cycle is different (yes, it really is different). The market is filled with various narratives and sub-narratives that compete for fleeting attention. Investors are now more cautious about "buying the dip," as the entire market narrative that a coin relies on could collapse at any moment, rendering the investment worthless.
In the past, we were accustomed to a holistic market cycle, but now the market is segmented into multiple independent "mini-cycles," each experiencing its own rise and fall. Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) are still viewed as relatively safe assets that may ultimately maintain their positions, but for investors seeking exponential growth, their returns are no longer as enticing—after all, BTC has rebounded sixfold from its bottom, while SOL has surged twentyfold. The key question now becomes: should one invest in crypto projects in the AI sector? Despite the recent attention on this sector, many tokens have significantly retraced from their historical highs, with no guarantee that they will return to their peaks.
The fragmentation of the market makes it harder for investors to accurately capture and leverage emerging trends. The crypto market has always been a highly speculative field, although past market cycles attempted to lend it legitimacy by emphasizing "peer-reviewed blockchain technology," "solid fundamentals," and "real-world applications." However, this cycle has largely abandoned these facades, embracing a more "nihilistic" market logic—everything depends on whether it can attract and maintain market attention.
The direct consequence of this trend is that market attention cycles have become increasingly short. Once, bull market cycles could last a year or longer, but now, the market's frenzy may only last a few months, weeks, or even days.
Currently, the market seems to be in a "Meme Super Cycle" (or has it already ended?). However, even the most popular meme coins have significantly retraced from their peaks, raising doubts about the rationale for investing in them.
At present, the risk of becoming a "bag holder" is higher than ever. In past market cycles, similar price crashes were often seen as buying opportunities, as the market generally believed that these tokens' prices would eventually rebound. But now the question is: can these coins regain the attention they once had?
The current market favors "leaders" rather than "laggards." Those betting on undervalued sectors or focusing on fundamentals but lacking market heat are often marginalized.
While meme coins and the AI sector are currently the winners in the market, investors remain cautious about these trends—the shift in market focus is too rapid and unpredictable. The core reason for this widespread uncertainty is that there are simply too many choices in the market. Thousands of tokens and projects are vying for investors' attention, making it increasingly difficult to discern which projects truly have potential and which are merely fleeting.
When attention is both dispersed and fleeting, it becomes harder for the market to form a lasting upward trend. So, is this phenomenon the new normal for the crypto market, or is it merely a temporary fluctuation caused by the current market environment? This remains an open question.
Every market cycle typically goes through a phase of chaos, where market attention is dispersed, before clear winners emerge. However, there is also the possibility that a fundamental change has occurred in the market: investors' attention cycles have been permanently shortened, and no single narrative can dominate the market for long.
Macroeconomic factors are also shaping the current market landscape. Past loose monetary policies made investing relatively simple, with ample liquidity driving the formation of speculative bubbles. However, in a high-interest and tightening liquidity environment, the market has become more difficult to navigate.
The decline in investors' confidence in "buying the dip" may reflect a broader economic reality. Amid increasing economic uncertainty, investors have become more conservative. Discussions about the four-year cycle are also becoming more frequent, with some predicting that this cycle will be extended. However, despite some changes in the market, the four-year cycle still seems to be in effect, albeit in a manner different from past patterns. Compared to previous bull markets, this cycle appears more subdued—Bitcoin (BTC) has only risen about 1.5 times from its last peak, while Ethereum (ETH) has yet to break its previous high.
The current market's rise is primarily driven by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors like MicroStrategy. These factors have attracted new institutional capital into the Bitcoin market, but outside of BTC, the inflow of funds is noticeably lacking. Aside from Bitcoin, speculative capital is mainly flowing into meme coins, which have shorter lifespans than before, and the market pace has become extremely fast.
Broader speculative capital seems to have yet to return to the market, and there is a lack of momentum to push overall innovation to new highs. Funds are flowing more within the crypto market rather than continuously entering with new capital. Due to the lack of strong liquidity providers, the current market hotspots cannot generate a sufficiently large capital effect, nor can they attract a large number of new investors.
The characteristics of this cycle are distinctly different from past bull markets. This raises a fundamental question: has the cycle pattern of the crypto market changed? The key factors that previously drove bull markets—loose monetary policy and fervent retail investors—seem to have lost their potency in the current environment. The anticipated "altseason," a phase where all altcoins experience exponential growth, has yet to truly arrive.
The gap between BTC and TOTAL2 (the difference between Bitcoin's market cap and the total market cap of all other crypto assets) has continued to widen since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Past "altseasons" were often periods of "mindless rises," where all tokens would surge due to the influx of speculative capital. However, today's Bitcoin market has become an independent ecosystem, with its price movements driven more by ETFs, MicroStrategy, macroeconomic factors, and political factors rather than traditional crypto market cycles.
In contrast, the altcoin market resembles a high-risk casino, where participation is only worthwhile when "net capital inflow is high" and "the right table is chosen."
Where there are winners, there are bound to be losers. The crypto casino of 2025 is more difficult to navigate than ever before. The current market has too many "tables" (i.e., different altcoin sectors), with a large number of new tokens being born every day, competing for market attention and capital flow. An excess of investment choices makes it increasingly difficult to identify real opportunities, while also increasing the risk of investors betting on the wrong sector and becoming "bag holders." Surviving in this complex and rapidly changing market requires a high degree of market sensitivity, execution ability, and adaptability, which not everyone possesses.
Nevertheless, some still hold hope for an "altseason." I hope they are right.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
