整理 & 编译：深潮TechFlow

Guests: Imran Khan, Founder of Alliance DAO; Qiao Wang, Founder of Alliance DAO

Podcast Source: Good Game Podcast

Original Title: On Consumer Crypto | EP 70

Broadcast Date: February 7, 2025

Background Information

Imran and Qiao engaged in an in-depth discussion with Iljia and Richard from Tensor, exploring consumer-focused cryptocurrencies and other related topics, providing entrepreneurs with core insights into the cryptocurrency space.

Key topics include:

• Market Analysis

• Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) in Progress - David Bailey

• The Profound Impact of Government Policies on the Economy

• The Popularization of AI and Future Trend Predictions

• Vine & JellyJelly

• The Future Prospects of Tokenization in Startups

• Clout and Tribe

• Tensor Team: Richard and Ilja's Vision

• Tokenization Strategies as Market Entry Points

• The Combination of Memecoins and Attention Economy

• The Current Growth Status of Vector

• Qiao's Annual Experiment Sharing

• The Trend of Developers Migrating from Ethereum to Solana

• User Profile Analysis Across Different Blockchains

• The Ultimate Form of Blockchain Technology

• Coinbase's Strategic Layout

• Discussion on "Blast Should Have Been Hyperliquid"

Market Analysis

Imran: A lot has happened in the past few weeks that is worth noting. The market has shown a continuous downward trend over the past month, and I feel our sentiment is highly aligned with the market's performance.

Qiao: The market does seem a bit weak.

Imran: Overall, the market is digesting the significant news released by Trump and the subsequent liquidity injection. As for the market's short-term trajectory, I can't make a clear judgment, but I remain optimistic about the market in the medium to long term.

Qiao: I think the market may maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. In fact, there have been many positive news items in the past two weeks, such as the executive order supporting cryptocurrencies, the repeal of the SAB Act, the advancement of the stablecoin bill, and some policy speeches regarding cryptocurrencies. However, despite so much positive news, the market has hardly reacted. This situation reflects the market's lukewarm response to these positive developments. Nevertheless, from a macroeconomic perspective, I believe the overall economic situation is still quite good.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) in Progress

Qiao: David Bailey mentioned that the current market performance is misleading. He tweeted that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBR) plan is in progress, led by DJT. They are gathering top officials from the nation and plan to develop a complete plan within the next 80 days. Notably, half of the working group consists of individuals who have achieved great success in relevant fields. The SBR plan is gradually being implemented. If the SBR is indeed implemented within the next 80 days, then the current market pricing is clearly severely underestimated. This potential impact cannot be fully reflected by existing market mechanisms.

Qiao: This reminds me of the launch of the Bitcoin ETF. At that time, many believed that the Bitcoin ETF was bad news and suggested selling. But the reality was quite the opposite; the launch of the Bitcoin ETF actually opened a whole new door for financial institutions and traditional investors to enter the Bitcoin market, especially those from traditional finance and older investors, right?

The situation with SBR is very similar. If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserves plan can be successfully implemented, it will mark the formal participation of the government. Not just the U.S. federal government, but also state governments, and even governments from other countries may choose to cooperate with the U.S. or at least try to keep up with this trend. This would create a new group of net Bitcoin buyers in the market, who are currently completely absent. Meanwhile, the movements of sovereign wealth funds are also worth noting, as they could become an important force driving this trend.

Imran: Additionally, the Trump administration is planning to create a sovereign wealth fund. It is reported that this fund will be operated by Cantor Fitzgerald's Lutnik, who has made significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, especially in Bitcoin. If he gets involved and leads this sovereign fund, things could get very interesting.

From my perspective, the current market is somewhat chaotic. We just experienced a massive meme bubble, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, but at the same time, there are these extremely optimistic news items coming out, and the market seems unable to respond clearly to this information.

Qiao: I don't think the market is really confused. It's just that the market has already priced in most of the positive news.

If the SBR plan really comes to fruition, we will see a significant market rally. But before that, I think the market may remain sluggish for a while.

Imran: I understand, this should have results within 80 days, right? They should announce relevant news within 80 days. So I think the current sluggish state of the market will soon improve.

Qiao: However, for those relying on OPM (Other People's Money), Standard Bank (managing assets of $870 billion) has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 before Trump's presidency ends. What do you think? $500,000? $500,000 is almost one-third of the total market value of gold, or even more than half of the market value of gold.

In fact, if Bitcoin really rises to $500,000, I wouldn't be surprised. On the contrary, the price of gold might see a certain degree of decline because funds may flow from gold to Bitcoin.

Imran: Did you see how gold performed today or yesterday? What do you think is driving all this? Do you think it's just the uncertainty of global tariffs?

Qiao: Gold has reached a historical high. I feel it's mainly due to the enormous uncertainty surrounding Trump. His first term can almost be described as "chaotic." He has engaged in trade wars with all countries, including U.S. allies. Gold is not only a tool to hedge against chaos but is also used to hedge against the risks of the U.S. massive debt.

The Profound Impact of Government Policies on the Economy

Imran: I did some simple calculations. The U.S. government is expected to reduce its fiscal deficit by about $1 trillion annually. Currently, the annual deficit in the U.S. is about $2 trillion. If they can really reduce $1 trillion, the national fiscal deficit will gradually decline in the long run, which will have profound effects on interest rates and inflation, even without direct intervention from the Federal Reserve.

Qiao: And the Federal Reserve may be reconsidering their strategy, as all these government impacts will change the speed at which they lower interest rates.

"I'm Glad Powell Didn't Lower Rates" - Trump

Imran: Trump's recent change in attitude is also quite interesting. A few days ago, he tweeted that Powell needed to lower rates immediately, even stating, "He must lower rates no matter what." But a few days later, he tweeted, "I'm glad Powell didn't lower rates; I have great respect for his decision." This shift in attitude is quite intriguing, but I'm not sure what deeper meaning lies behind it.

Qiao: In the short term, a reduction in government spending may bring deflationary pressure, as it effectively withdraws some funds from the economy. Government spending is a crucial component of the economy, which is basic knowledge in macroeconomics. However, at the same time, tariff policies could bring inflationary pressure. If they restore tariffs, it will undoubtedly drive inflation.

Imran: I feel this is more like a negotiation strategy for Trump. He used similar tactics in 2017 to force parties to renegotiate agreements. For him, this news is just a tool. He secured 20,000 law enforcement personnel from the Mexican government to strengthen border control, which theoretically can reduce the influx of drugs and illegal immigration. Now, there are also 10,000 law enforcement personnel from Canada deployed at the Washington border. Meanwhile, I've seen news reports that Canada's drug smuggling management is relatively weak, and many drug trafficking organizations have reorganized in Canada and are using channels there to transport drugs to the U.S. These measures are undoubtedly beneficial for the U.S. economy. So, I believe Trump's goal has always been to achieve his deals through pressure.

He imposed tariffs on China, and China responded, "We will also impose tariffs on you." So, the U.S. Postal Service has currently stopped providing services to platforms like Temu and similar Alibaba enterprises. This has led to stock price declines of 2% to 5% for these companies. In my view, Trump is simply using these means to force the other party to act according to his demands. While this strategy may bring market volatility in the short term, in the long run, he often achieves his goals.

Qiao: I do not recommend that people trade based on these short-term news items. Outside of Trump's core circle, no one can truly grasp the advantage of this information.

The Popularization of AI and Future Trend Predictions

Imran: I believe that almost every startup in the future will use crypto and AI in some form. These technologies may be embedded in products in various ways, so companies no longer need to emphasize that they are "crypto startups" or "AI startups." They will simply be referred to as "startups," and these technologies will become one of the core features of their products. This trend also opens up more possibilities for innovation in the AI and crypto fields for startups. In fact, many of the startup applications we receive do not even involve crypto at all, but rather focus on AI.

What do you think is driving this phenomenon? A few days ago, I read an application where someone said, "Although we are an AI startup, I see some potential applications for crypto and want to explore it." He has no understanding of crypto at all but still wants to try, which I find very interesting. This seems to validate our point: every startup will find that crypto and AI ultimately are just features within their core products.

Qiao: Over the past two years, many have tried to predict the fusion of AI and crypto, but many of the ideas seem forced. For example, some hope to use crypto technology to train AI or use AI to solve problems in the crypto space, but these attempts have not had much practical significance. I think a more realistic scenario is that people will develop products that use large language models (LLMs) in some features and introduce crypto in others. This integration is quite natural, and the technology will be hidden in the background, so end users may not even need to know about the existence of these features. They just need to enjoy a better user experience without needing to understand whether the product is AI-driven or crypto-driven.

Imran: There are two mainstream views on AI. One believes that AI will become authoritarian like in China, while the other believes that AI will completely replace human jobs. But in reality, no one has really considered the middle path: how AI can improve our efficiency in daily life and optimize our business models. Similarly, technologies like AI and crypto will gradually become part of product features rather than standalone selling points. They will enhance the user experience tenfold, but users may not even need to know about the technology's existence. This trend makes me realize that we don't need to deliberately distinguish between "crypto startups" or "AI startups"; their essence is tools for enhancing productivity. People always tend to take extremes, but in reality, the future is more likely to be a state between the two.

DeepSeek

Imran: A few months ago, we discussed the potential impact of DeepSeek when it was just launched. But recent news has drawn more attention, such as their claim of completing a project with just $6 million. However, opinions on this matter vary widely. Some believe that it is impossible to achieve this with only $6 million, and there may be more resources behind DeepSeek.

Qiao: Regardless, one thing is clear: the costs of AI reasoning and model training are rapidly decreasing. This is good news for application layer development.

There is a similar trend in the cryptocurrency space. We have noticed that as infrastructure costs decrease, the crypto industry is gradually shifting from the infrastructure layer to the application layer.

Because whether in AI or cryptocurrency, the reduction in infrastructure costs is driving more innovation at the application layer.

Recent Developments in Vine & JellyJelly

Imran: Vine and JellyJelly are two of the most interesting things happening recently. This also reaffirms the potential of tokenization, which may become an important opportunity in the crypto space. I refer to it as "application tokens" or memes, which are a subcategory of tokens.

There are also two interesting stories recently. The first is that after Trump launched his personal token, people began to see tokenization as a novel marketing tool. The founder of Vine sold Vine to Twitter for $30 million in 2018.

Elon Musk has been discussing whether to restart Vine on Twitter for years, initiating related polls every few months. Recently, an external team for Vine launched a token project themed "Bring Vine Back." According to their plan, 5% of the Vine token supply will be donated to Twitter. If Vine can successfully return, there are already over 145,000 token holders. Since the project's launch, they have reignited interest in Vine through meme culture and the viral effect of tokens.

More interestingly, Vine's social media activities and private Twitter groups have begun to form a kind of "community energy." For example, some people are graffitiing the Vine logo on the streets or printing the Vine logo to stick on walls. This phenomenon is driving the return of Vine. I find this case very intriguing.

Using Application Tokens for Advertising Expenditure

Imran: I think tokens, or application tokens, can essentially be seen as a form of advertising expenditure. As more and more people become interested in it, this phenomenon may relate to who the founders are or other factors. Through tokens, you can attract users and even capture a certain market psychological share. In my view, there is a correspondence between advertising expenditure and viral spread. Memes are a form of tokens, while application tokens are more like tools for driving viral spread. This may also involve concepts similar to "user acquisition funnels." The JellyJelly team has tried similar approaches.

JellyJelly

Qiao: How is the token issuance situation for JellyJelly?

Every time they launch a token, I am asleep. They always release it at 9 PM, and I have a habit of turning off all screens two hours before bed. So I miss it every time. The Trump token was at 9 PM, the Vine token was at 9 PM, and the JellyJelly token was also at 9 PM. I may have missed out on about eight figures in earnings.

Imran: These are just experiments that are happening, and I believe the future will get better and improve over time.

Qiao: Now people's consumption habits have changed. Issuing tokens has become very common, and it is no longer surprising for anyone to launch a token, and it all started with the launch of $TRUMP.

The Future Prospects of Tokenization in Startups

Imran: I believe that in the future, almost all startups will use tokens, both as a means of self-financing and to acquire users. This is my judgment on future trends. I have discussed this issue with many people on Twitter, and some do not agree with my viewpoint.

They always say, "Oh, that won't work." Then their extreme supporters will wildly like their tweets. This is completely different from the world before, and I can understand that this change is hard to accept. Obviously, these innovations may happen on some blockchains you don't like. But that is precisely why this is the true soil for innovation.

Clout and Tribe

Imran: Previously, we discussed startups and application tokens; now let's talk about Clout and Tribe. I think the concept of creator tokens is similar, with the core assumption being that the cost of gaining followers is very low. You can easily attract a large number of followers. But the question is, are people willing to pay for "social capital"? In other words, in an environment flooded with followers, can social capital become a standard for measuring whether a person is truly influential?

Currently, we are trying two completely different experiments. One is a more user-friendly platform where anyone can easily buy and hold tokens, with simple operations and low barriers to entry. The other leans more towards the characteristics of the crypto space, providing a new way to interact with creators. For example, users can participate in creators' live streams through tokens, interact with them in real-time, and support creators through a subscription model. Therefore, these two experiments represent two different experiences we are exploring.

Views from the Tensor Team Members

Imran: I think this is exactly the trend happening in the entire speculative crypto market right now. In the token space, the Tensor team has many unique insights, especially in consumer trading. Today, we have invited Richard and Ilja, the founders of Tensor and Vector, to share their thoughts.

Consensus Mechanism and the Development Direction of Vector

Imran: What are your views on consensus mechanisms? What is the current product direction?

Richard: Our team has created an excellent mobile-native trading experience for memes. We can say that we are one of the earliest teams to try this model. Projects like Moonshot are also worth mentioning. Now, more and more teams realize that building a quality trading experience on mobile is feasible, such as integrating wallet functions directly into the app. The user's logical deduction is: can all these professional meme trading functions be moved to mobile? These platforms provide complex statistics and trading charts. In other words, we can achieve a Tensor-like experience on mobile but focus on memes.

However, from a "first principles" perspective, we need to consider one question: will professional traders really choose to complete complex trades on mobile? They might, but based on historical experience, mobile devices are more suitable for scenarios that require quick operations anytime and anywhere. For example, someone might quickly complete a trade while on a train, during a work break, or while resting, rather than staring at a screen for four to five hours of deep operations like on a desktop. Therefore, fundamentally, we believe that the goal of mobile is not to provide professional-level trading functions but to create a more user-friendly trading experience that is better suited for retail users. At the same time, we will also consider developing a desktop application to achieve seamless connectivity between the two.

Currently, the professional trading market on desktop is already a "red ocean." Many teams are developing almost identical products, and competition is very fierce. So we decided to prioritize focusing on retail mobile products and gradually consider desktop development. We also intend to avoid directly adding professional features based on user feedback; instead, we want to provide users with some new experiences that make them realize these features are unique to mobile. For example, mobile can provide real-time alerts through push notifications or quickly copy trades, which cannot be done on desktop. This is precisely the differentiated experience we hope to create in mobile-native applications.

Photon

Imran: I think Photon has outstanding functionality. You also provide features like Meme Scope, allowing users to get a head start on upcoming token projects. I notice that users enjoy sharing trading ideas and interacting with each other through the platform. How do you view the differences between these markets? Is your goal to make the product more inclined towards social interaction among ordinary consumers, or to focus on the needs of professional traders? How do you balance these directions?

Ilja: Trading is a very complex and multi-dimensional "game," which is also its charm. The more complex the game, the greater the challenge, the more interesting it becomes. Different users will participate in this "game" in different ways. This is an important realization we had when developing our second trading product.

When we entered the NFT space, we found that most people were participating in trading in a singular way. So we developed a series of professional tools to help users participate in a more diverse manner. In this new product, our direction is almost the opposite. In the past, everyone was used to participating in meme token trading through quantitative analysis and professional tools, while we hope to introduce a brand new way of playing—an interactive experience based on social signals.

vector.fun

Ilja: Excellent startups often change the industry landscape by redefining the market rather than simply competing with existing companies. They tell users that what they used to care about has become irrelevant.

This is also our goal with Vector. We are not just telling users to use Vector because it offers faster and more efficient trading tools. Instead, we want to convey that fast trading tools are no longer that important. We make all of this irrelevant by providing richer signals, more interesting content, and experiences that can be consumed anytime and anywhere. For example, you can quickly browse and participate in trades while on the bus or even in the bathroom. This experience may not have an existing market, may not interest anyone, or may even be a bad idea. But we believe that you won't know the answer until you try. From the current user feedback, we have indeed identified some demand.

Users do enjoy sharing their trading results with others in a "broadcast" manner. This is also the core concept of Vector. Just as the core of Twitter is to allow users to tweet, the core of Vector is to enable users to share trading updates.

Richard: For example, someone shared a trade saying they made $2 million today. This trade was completed through a token launched on the Pump Fun platform. The developers actually completed their first trade on Vector, almost in an advertising manner. They may not be sure about the future of the project, but they decided to buy $500 worth of their project's tokens. If the project succeeds, this will become a viral case. In fact, that is exactly what happened. Users began to screenshot and share the results of this trade. Therefore, the developers effectively promoted the project using the Vector platform, and once the project succeeds, it will attract widespread attention.

Comparative Analysis of Vine and JellyJelly

Qiao: What do you think about Vine and JellyJelly? These two tokens attracted a lot of attention when they were first launched, and their prices skyrocketed, but then they quickly fell. What do you think we can learn from this?

Imran: The hype around JellyJelly has gradually faded, while Vine's performance has been relatively good.

Qiao: Vine's price trend is more stable, while JellyJelly is like a Christmas tree.

Richard: This is indeed interesting. I think we are experiencing a shift in mindset, especially in how we view assets. In traditional financial markets, such as the U.S. stock market, there are about 30,000 stocks available for trading, along with some bonds and other assets. In the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) space, while some assets are limited in number, it is becoming increasingly difficult to launch a token with sufficient liquidity. On platforms like Pump Fun, there may only be about 100 tokens that most people are genuinely interested in. However, through the mechanism of the "bond curve," the market has opened the "floodgates" for token issuance, allowing for almost unlimited new tokens to be launched.

This also means we need to look at these tokens in a completely new way. The speculative cycle of each token may be very short, but similar opportunities will continue to emerge, accompanied by different types of assets. Therefore, rather than holding onto a single asset for the long term (like Bitcoin or Solana), it may be better to switch flexibly between different assets.

Tokenization Strategy as a Market Entry Point

Imran: Some people from non-crypto fields are entering the crypto market by issuing tokens. You could say this has almost become a new marketing strategy—using tokens to attract attention and acquire users. For example, the founder of Vine launched a token to spark the Twitter team's interest in redeveloping the Vine client. Some even painted the Vine logo on walls in New York to express their anticipation for Vine's return. In contrast, JellyJelly also tried a similar approach, but I think their issuance strategy may have some issues.

Qiao: What specific issues? If it were you, how would you improve it?

Imran: I think the problem is that everyone is flooding into the market at the same time, leading to a highly speculative bubble in a short period. In such an environment, projects find it hard to escape the hype atmosphere and must work hard to establish a more organic and sustainable growth model, which is a challenge that needs to be faced.

Another issue is the so-called "snipers." These individuals buy a large amount of tokens within the first few minutes of the token's launch, accounting for 5% to 10% of the total, and then quickly sell off, which is a challenge that almost all token issuances face.

However, from another perspective, this may not be unacceptable. Those short-term speculators will eventually exit the market, while long-term investors who truly believe in the project's vision will remain.

More importantly, this phenomenon indicates that by issuing tokens, an application can quickly attract market attention and users without relying on traditional public relations activities, media coverage, or venture capital support. Simply launching a token can generate buzz, and then this momentum can be used to build a community.

When I first heard about Vine's token, I thought it might be a scam because its market cap was only around $1 million at the time. But then I saw a video from Vine's founder, Russ, proving his identity. From that moment on, the community began to take over the project, and now there is a group of over 8,000 Vine enthusiasts discussing Vine's future every day.

The Future of Tokenization

Imran: I believe we are entering a whole new era—almost everything will be tokenized in the future.

Qiao: Yes, for example, Ondo is tokenizing stocks, bonds, and more.

Imran: They are building a platform that allows anyone to tokenize stocks, bonds, and ETFs. And with changes in the policy environment, the process of tokenization is accelerating.

Ilja: Looking back at early blog posts in the crypto space, the initial discussions actually focused on two points: first, you can own assets in a decentralized way, which was previously impossible; second, tokens can be used to launch networks.

But it is important to note that a network means not only liquidity but also attention. When you start, you may have nothing and need to drive a two-sided market, such as on the Vector platform, where one side is callers and the other side is traders. At this point, tokens become an excellent tool for incentivizing the cold start of the network. They can bring momentum and heat, attract user attention, and promote the formation of network effects. If you can create a truly popular product, users will naturally stay.

I also noticed an interesting phenomenon. In the past few years, due to regulatory reasons, many people have thought that the only use of tokens is as securities or assets. This has led us to almost forget the original purpose of tokens—they were not meant to become securities but to help launch networks.

Now, with changes in the policy environment, some smart entrepreneurs have begun to recognize this again and are using tokens to build entirely new products. I believe that in the next two to three years, this trend will become increasingly evident, and tokens will be everywhere.

Two Main Tokenization Models

Richard: I think we can currently see two main tokenization models. The first is the tokenization of traditional financial instruments, such as converting equity or future cash flows into token form, which is closer to securitization. The second is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), such as digitally expressing physical assets or commodities through blockchain.

However, recently we have seen a new trend, which is memes. The value of this type of token is primarily driven by supply and demand and market consensus. In other words, people buy these tokens because they believe others will also buy them, thus driving up the price. This model makes a lot of sense in a bull market, as there is a large flow of capital in the market, and investors hope to profit through speculation. But I wonder if these attention-based tokens can survive across multiple market cycles, especially in a bear market, whether they can still attract investors' attention or merely exist as a short-term speculative tool.

The Combination of Memecoins and Attention Economy

Qiao: In fact, attention assets are not a new concept; they have appeared in multiple market cycles. For example, in the early days, colored coins on Bitcoin can be seen as a form of attention asset. Similar ideas have existed for over a decade. In the last market cycle, NFTs became mainstream, which are essentially attention assets as well. And now, we are witnessing the rise of memecoins. Although these tokens have different names, they are essentially all attention assets, just in different forms. If in the previous cycle we had a sufficiently cheap and efficient blockchain, then memecoins might become the dominant form rather than other speculative tools. Therefore, unless a new form of token emerges in the next cycle to carry attention, I believe the hype around memecoins will continue.

Richard: We are very optimistic about the future of attention assets, which is also the core idea behind building the Vector platform. We have observed the development trend from NFTs to memecoins; these tokens reflect the market's emotions and state. They perform well in bull markets, but in bear markets, they may be more susceptible to market fluctuations than tokens based on real-world assets (RWAs).

Ilja: It is indeed very interesting. When we try to push a new idea to the market, we often apply old models or product logic to it. I can't recall the name of this phenomenon at the moment, but it illustrates a problem: people still tend to view the crypto industry as a financial industry. While crypto is indeed closely related to finance, its potential goes far beyond that. Crypto is actually a manifestation of the attention economy and can even be seen as a new form of advertising. But many people have not fully understood this yet.

I believe there are two very exciting types of products worth exploring in the crypto space. The first type is stablecoin products designed for developing countries, which can address real economic issues and have significant social implications. The second type is some extreme long-tail products, such as attention assets with a lifecycle of only 13 seconds. Although these products may seem crazy, they are full of innovative potential. In contrast, traditional products like putting equity on the blockchain do not seem as appealing to me. Because this is not a breakthrough innovation that can bring a tenfold improvement. In my view, the most successful companies in the future will emerge from these two extremes.

Current Growth Status of Vector

Imran: How is the current growth of Vector? I noticed that your trading volume has surpassed one billion dollars.

Ilja: At the peak of our platform, the total annual trading volume was close to $9 billion, with an average daily trading volume of about $25 million. At this rate, the annual trading volume is approximately $9 billion. I believe we have the opportunity to reach our previous peak again. Products like this take time to refine, and we are continuously optimizing and fixing issues during the launch process.

Currently, we have 20,000 active users, of which 5,000 are active traders, with daily trading volumes ranging from $5 million to $15 million. It is important to emphasize that this product has only been launched for two months and there is still much room for improvement.

Qiao: And is the platform still in the testing phase, meaning only whitelisted users can use it?

Ilja: Yes, the current users are mainly whitelisted users in the testing phase. We want to be more cautious during the product promotion because this is a product that relies on social dissemination. Users who join through friend invitations usually have more trust and are more likely to accept the product. The design of the invitation mechanism is intended to encourage users to invite their friends to join.

Additionally, this approach has another benefit: since the product is not yet fully polished, new users can directly seek help from the friends who invited them when they encounter issues, such as "Why isn't this feature working?" or "What does this operation mean?" This "hand-holding" support can greatly enhance the user experience. If users are directly introduced to a product that is not yet refined, they may abandon it due to a poor experience. Once users give up, it is usually difficult to get them to try again. Therefore, we hope to gradually optimize the user experience through this cautious promotion approach.

Qiao's Annual Experiment Sharing

Qiao: Well, I conducted my annual experiment and tweeted, "Solana is the ultimate form of blockchain," just to see the reaction.

The response this year was much better than last year. Last year, every Ethereum enthusiast came to attack me. But this year is different because many people just experienced some collapses two weeks ago. So the discussions this year have been relatively rational.

Imran: Speaking of this, I think it relates to the issue we discussed earlier. Alliance, as a neutral startup accelerator, is currently investing in multiple projects, including about 100 Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects, as well as some emerging platforms like Mega ETH, Monad, Abstract, Story Protocol, and Hyper Liquid, among others.

This list is continuously growing, and we receive thousands of applications from startups, with the quality of projects seen on Base and Solana being truly distinctive.

But the problem is that there are now too many Layer 1 projects launching, and I can't even keep up with the progress. The launch of Blast was considered successful, but user feedback indicated that their opinions were not valued, and they felt "rug-pulled."

I was somewhat surprised by Abstract's performance; although the launch went well, their strategy focused on the consumer market seems to be unpopular, and many users are starting to churn. I believe this frequent rotation of launches is exhausting for users, and the liquidity flowing into these Layer 1 projects is gradually decreasing.

Qiao: This is indeed a topic worth discussing, as it is very important for both investors and startup teams. The information we have is difficult to obtain in other fields because we are directly involved in the early stages of startup products.

A year ago, I didn't pay much attention to the differences between Ethereum Layer 2 and Solana. But after observing the performance of the startups we collaborate with in these two ecosystems, it is now clear that Solana is the better choice. We see many cases where the same product has almost no users on Ethereum Layer 2, while it runs smoothly on Solana and attracts a large number of users. I have encountered so much evidence that I feel it would be irresponsible not to recommend founders to build on Solana. This conclusion is very clear now.

The Trend of Developers Migrating from Ethereum to Solana

Imran: I've noticed that some Base supporters have already turned to Solana. What do you think is the reason behind this?

Qiao: The reason is actually quite simple; it is easier to attract users on Solana. Although it is not easy for developers familiar with EVM to switch to Solana. They need to learn a whole new set of tools and master the Rust programming language and Solana's unique development framework. This may take one to two months, but even so, they still feel it is worth it because Solana offers a better user base and ecosystem support.

I have actually held Ethereum since the genesis block. But I sold it last year; I held it for a full 10 years. You can imagine holding an asset for 10 years and then suddenly thinking, "Its growth potential is almost at an end." It really is at an end.

User Profile Analysis on Different Blockchains

Imran: I think Base's strategy is actually quite good because they have strong distribution channels. And Jessie's strategy is, "I want to help developers achieve viral dissemination." This idea makes sense in itself. But the reality is that many developers do not attract enough users when launching applications on Base and lack the necessary liquidity. I refer to this phenomenon as "speculative liquidity," which is the liquidity support needed for applications to operate normally. On Solana, users seem more inclined to speculate and are more willing to try new applications rather than linger on Base.

Qiao: When we say "speculative," we are not just referring to those traders. These users are very open to new things and willing to try various new applications.

Imran: So from the user profile perspective, there is indeed a significant difference between Base and Solana. Is this due to cultural differences?

Qiao: I think it is related to both culture and product design. For example, currently, no EVM wallet can compare with Solana's Phantom.

On EVM, the user experience is very fragmented. New users often feel overwhelmed by the numerous wallet choices, which is a psychological burden for them. On Solana, there is currently only one mainstream choice for me, which is Phantom, and this single choice actually reduces the decision-making cost for users.

Outlook on the Ultimate Form of Blockchain Technology

Imran: Although I am reluctant to admit it, Solana's development currently shows a "winner-takes-all" trend. What I mean is that although there are still some emerging projects, this competition is far from over and may last for decades. For example, Hyperliquid is a very interesting startup built on Solana, and they have a very appealing narrative logic. SUI and Aptos are also projects worth paying attention to. What do you think the blockchain will ultimately develop into?

Qiao: In my view, ultimately there will be four to five blockchains that stand out and become the main players in the industry. Solana is clearly the current leader, with very obvious advantages. Besides Solana, I think SUI, Aptos, and Monad also have potential. These chains fully utilize modern hardware technology, maximizing transaction throughput while maintaining a certain degree of decentralization.

In contrast, Ethereum focuses more on achieving high decentralization, trying to resist government intervention, but sacrifices a lot of scalability for this. From a practical application perspective, this theory seems to lack competitiveness when handling high transaction volumes.

On the other hand, there are some chains that improve speed through centralized nodes but sacrifice decentralization. This model may be more friendly to market makers because they can collaborate with the nodes of centralized data centers. However, this model has not been practically validated yet, as these chains have not officially launched. Therefore, we need to continue observing. I believe they have a 10% to 20% chance of competing against Solana, but currently, Solana has a very strong competitive barrier in terms of user throughput.

Double Zero is also very inclined towards high-frequency trading (HFT), and their DNA lies in fast communication. This is exactly what high-frequency trading firms excel at. Hyperliquid and DeepSeek also come from the high-frequency trading field.

Imran: There is a pattern here. In fact, when Anatoly initially conceived Solana, he positioned it as an on-chain NASDAQ, which was the application scenario he originally wanted to achieve.

Qiao: Based on my experience, among all centralized exchanges, NASDAQ's technology is indeed the most advanced. Compared to NYC and CME, NASDAQ has the lowest latency and the most stable matching engine. For this reason, market makers prefer to trade on NASDAQ.

Imran: You could say Anatoly's approach starts with the most difficult problems. For example, how to build a trading market or exchange on-chain? If you can solve this problem, then you can almost build any other application. This is why he is so focused on this scenario because if you can solve this problem on-chain, you can solve all problems.

Projects like Double Zero and Fire Dancer, as well as an increasing number of applications, are entering our ecosystem. For example, the founder of Clout, who was also one of the founders of Monkey (one of the largest social applications in Web 2), actively chose to build on Solana, which is a great example. He approached us proactively rather than us inviting him.

Qiao: Someone asked me what the ratio of founders on Solana to Ethereum is. I think it is about 50:50, but if we look at the top 1% of talent, I think that ratio is closer to 75:25. What do you think?

Imran: I feel the same way. This is a significant advantage for Solana because those founders who find product-market fit will recommend Solana to their friends and colleagues, encouraging them to build applications here. This word-of-mouth effect has formed a structural barrier for Solana over time.

Coinbase's Strategic Layout

Imran: As a pioneer in the crypto industry, Coinbase has always been highly respected, and we all admire Brian Armstrong and his executive team, including Jesse. But from my external observation, Base may not be Coinbase's optimal strategic choice.

Qiao: I think Base should try to build their own Layer 1.

Imran: Whether it's Layer 2 or Layer 1, what I mean is that as a large company, Coinbase is politically too tightly bound to Base and its assets, which makes them insufficiently supportive of assets in other ecosystems.

It's not just political reasons; resource limitations are also an issue. Their resources are limited, so they naturally prioritize supporting Base. This has also led to them being unable to support Solana effectively, even failing to list many popular memes.

Qiao: I'm not criticizing their choice, but I want to point out that Coinbase's focus on Base has created a kind of "tunnel vision" structurally and politically, overlooking important changes happening with platforms like Solana.

Imran: That's true. This has led to withdrawal times of up to 9 hours on Solana, and they haven't listed many of the memes that users want to trade. As a result, emerging projects like Moonshot have seized the opportunity, leveraging the Solana meme craze to attract 400,000 to 500,000 new users.

Qiao: These users could have potentially entered Coinbase.

Imran: So I feel that Coinbase is gradually losing the macro perspective they once had, which is the potential crisis I see.

Qiao: We are actually seeing very intense competition between Coinbase and Solana. Coinbase's Base stands in stark contrast to projects like Jupiter, Meteora, and Moonshot. Disruptive innovation often starts from the bottom, as there are too many tokens being minted and traded on-chain, and centralized exchanges cannot cover all these tokens, gradually losing market share.

Especially when tokens are listed on Binance, the community often views it as a negative signal, as token prices typically drop after listing.

From the app store data, projects like Phantom and Moonshot are often more popular than Coinbase, indicating that more and more users are choosing to trade on-chain directly rather than going to centralized exchanges.

Discussion on "Blast Should Have Been Hyperliquid"

Imran: I think it might be a bit late now. Although the competition is ongoing, Solana still holds a leading position. While the lead isn't particularly large, I believe they are gradually losing market share. We can talk about Hyperliquid. At least from the discussions on Twitter, many influential founders are choosing to build projects based on Hyperliquid. I feel they are attracting a large number of EVM Degen users (speculators in the Ethereum Virtual Machine ecosystem). In a sense, Hyperliquid should have played the role of Blast.

Blast had the opportunity to become a project like Hyperliquid, but their actions were too slow. I tried the Blast Wallet app, but I couldn't even figure out what the core functionality of the app was. While it offers a 20% yield, which sounds good, this wallet has almost no other practical uses.

So I think they lost to Hyperliquid in the competition. Hyperliquid is able to attract the EVM Degen community and build an ecosystem around trading features. Even if their focus is solely on trading, that is acceptable. Additionally, projects like SUI and Aptos are also developing rapidly. Their TVL (Total Value Locked) has reached an all-time high today. These projects do have some highlights; although I'm not entirely optimistic, I cannot ignore their potential.

Qiao: I'm open to that. However, at the moment, Solana still leads far ahead of all competitors. I'm not saying the competition is settled, but I believe the chances of Ethereum's Layer 2 (second-layer scaling solutions) or other emerging Layer 1 (first-layer blockchains) surpassing Solana are less than 50%, and it might even be only 10% to 20%.

Imran: Additionally, the way new Layer 1 projects are launched is also crucial. So far, aside from BeraChain establishing a large TVL base, other projects have not really excited me from a narrative perspective. Many recently launched Layer 1 projects lack appeal and do not have sufficient incentive mechanisms. I hope this situation will improve over time. Ultimately, it will come down to what kind of products can be built on these platforms.

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