Wall Street hedge funds have reached a historic high in short positions on Ethereum, surging 500% since last November.
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Story announces public mainnet launch on February 13 and opens $IP airdrop claim
According to official news, Story, a Layer1 blockchain focused on intellectual property, announced that it will officially launch its public mainnet on February 13 (this Thursday). The airdrop claim and eligibility check functions for its native token $IP will also be opened simultaneously.
Musk bids $97.4 billion for control of OpenAI, Sam Altman responds: willing to take over Twitter for $9.74 billion
According to The Wall Street Journal, an investment consortium led by Musk submitted a $97.4 billion acquisition offer to the OpenAI board, aiming to gain control of the nonprofit organization. This offer may impact OpenAI's existing development plans, including its transition to a for-profit company and the $500 billion "Interstellar Gateway" project for developing AI infrastructure.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman immediately responded on social media, stating that he does not accept the offer and counter-proposed to acquire Twitter for $9.74 billion. Musk commented, calling Altman a "fraud." Previously, the two had been in court over disputes regarding OpenAI's development direction. Musk stated he would lead OpenAI back to an open-source route and prioritize safety, but an official spokesperson from OpenAI did not respond to this.
FGM Research Director: The Fed may not cut rates this year
According to Jin10, Daniel Doderer, economist and research director at Flack Global Metals, stated, "I think the Fed is in a very good position right now to do nothing for a while. We are transitioning from a balanced labor market to a market that may face supply constraints while demand remains unchanged or even higher, which suggests that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates. Therefore, our internal expectation is that the Fed will not cut rates this year. However, the likelihood of a rate cut is slightly higher compared to the possibility of a rate hike."
It is reported that the Fed paused rate cuts in January, and when or whether it will resume cutting rates remains uncertain, especially as the market awaits to see how Trump's second administration's tariffs and immigration policies will develop.
Tomo founder Ryan announces sharing DuckChain investment returns with users, airdropping 0.1% of total DUCK supply
Ryan Fang, founder of the Tomo wallet, announced that he will share his investment returns in DuckChain with Tomo users, giving away DuckChain co-branded gifts $DUCK BOX.
The prize pool totals 10,000,000 DUCK, accounting for 0.1% of the total DUCK supply. The Tomo official will take a snapshot at 0:00 Beijing time on February 17, and eligible Tomo wallet users can claim it. For details, please refer to the official Tomo wallet Twitter (@tomo_wallet).
Additionally, Tomo will open 300 whitelist spots for current and historical holders of Tomo Key. Eligible users can register on a Google form to directly receive the $DUCK BOX reward, on a first-come, first-served basis.
Alliance DAO founder: Has liquidated ETH held for 10 years, its growth potential is nearly exhausted
Imran Khan and Qiao Wang, founders of Alliance DAO, shared their views in a podcast titled "On Consumer Crypto."
Imran believes that "supporters of Base in the current market have turned to Solana," to which Qiao responded, "It is easier to attract users on Solana. For developers familiar with EVM, switching to Solana is not easy; they need to learn a whole new set of tools. But even so, they still feel it is worth it because Solana offers a better user base and ecosystem support."
Additionally, Qiao stated, "I have actually held Ethereum since the genesis block. But I sold it last year; I held it for a full 10 years. You can imagine holding an asset for 10 years and then suddenly feeling that its growth potential is nearly exhausted."
DWF co-founder: We are currently in a crime season, anything can happen
According to DWF co-founder Andrei Grachev's post on X, we are currently in a crime season, and anything can happen; short-term trends may also change. Grachev emphasized that investors should remain cautious and do their homework (DYOR).
Wall Street hedge funds have reached a historic high in short positions on Ethereum, surging 500% since last November
According to The Kobeissi Letter, Wall Street hedge funds have reached a historic high in short positions on Ethereum, increasing by 40% in one week and accumulating a 500% increase since November 2024. On February 2, Ethereum plummeted 37% within 60 hours, causing the cryptocurrency market to lose over $1 trillion in market value.
Data shows that despite a strong influx of funds into Ethereum in December 2024, attracting over $2 billion in new funds within three weeks, with a single week seeing a peak inflow of $854 million, the current price of Ethereum is still down about 45% from its historical high in November 2021, and it has significantly underperformed Bitcoin, whose market value is now six times that of Ethereum, reaching a new high since 2020.
Notably, against the backdrop of the Trump administration's friendly stance towards Ethereum, with Eric Trump even publicly stating that "now is a good time to increase holdings in Ethereum," such a large-scale shorting wave seems particularly unusual. The market has various interpretations of this, including market manipulation, hedging demand, and bearish views on Ethereum's fundamentals. Analysts expect that due to the excessive concentration of short positions, Ethereum may experience significant volatility in the future, and a short squeeze cannot be ruled out.
Bloomberg analyst: The probability of spot ETF approval for Litecoin and Dogecoin is 90% and 75% respectively
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the probability of spot ETF approval for Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) in 2025 is 90% and 75% respectively, while the probabilities for Solana (SOL) and XRP are 70% and 65%.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart added that the SEC is expected to confirm the ETF application documents for XRP and Dogecoin this week, and the SEC's cryptocurrency working group with Commissioner Peirce will clarify the definitions of securities and commodities involved in the litigation by the end of 2025.
Spot gold breaks $2920, setting a new historical high, as Trump's tariff threats increase safe-haven demand
According to Jin10, the spot gold price has broken $2920 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with a cumulative increase of over 11% this year. COMEX gold futures surged 1.70% to $2936.8 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold night trading closed at 682.74 yuan per gram, up 1.35%.
The rise in gold prices is mainly driven by three factors:
First, Trump announced on February 10 that he would impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum products, affecting major exporting countries such as Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam, raising concerns about a trade war and inflation;
Second, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become tense again, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of violating a six-week ceasefire agreement;
Third, the market is focused on the U.S. CPI data for January, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% for both overall and core CPI, with annual increases of 2.9% and 3.1% respectively. If the data exceeds expectations, it may push up U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices.
Market Dynamics
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