Important News on February 10:
- A man in the UK is considering purchasing a landfill to recover a hard drive containing 8,000 BTC.
- The Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to treat crypto assets as financial products similar to securities, implementing tax cuts and approving ETFs.
- Data shows that Ethereum short positions have increased by 40% in a week, soaring 500% since last November.
- Bitcoin network transaction fees have dropped to 1 Sat/byte, while Ethereum network Gas has decreased to 0.8 Gwei.
- Tokens such as BERA, APT, and SAND will experience a large one-time unlock this week.
Conveying the way of trading, enjoying a wise life.
Today, we will discuss Bitcoin's price trends from three perspectives: macro data, fundamentals, and technical analysis.
First, let's focus on the key events of this week. Among many events, there are particularly many unlocks, which is why many altcoins cannot be touched, and many altcoins are experiencing significant declines. The continuous unlocks mean that selling pressure persists, and declines continue.
At this time, bottom-fishing altcoins is undoubtedly akin to catching a falling knife during a downtrend, so everyone must manage their positions carefully. A key event to watch is that on February 12 at 9:30 PM, the U.S. will release the CPI data for January.
This data will impact U.S. monetary policy, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies, with a significant effect. The initial target for CPI was set at 2%, and last month's reported value was 2.9%, which is within expectations. If the value is within expectations, it can be considered a positive signal for cryptocurrencies; if it exceeds expectations, it indicates a negative signal for cryptocurrencies.
Everyone should keep an eye on the data to be released on February 12, as it may lead to significant market fluctuations. Pay attention to leverage and position control. In addition to this macro data perspective, we also need to look at how Bitcoin's on-chain data is performing.
In terms of on-chain data in this market, we note that a whale has withdrawn 7,078 Ethereum, and for Bitcoin, a whale has withdrawn 350 BTC. Notably, a president in Africa has issued a meme series of tokens named after himself, similar to Trump Coin, creating many millionaires and multimillionaires within just a few hours, resulting in a significant wealth effect.
Of course, those who buy in later will likely suffer, and this coin should not be pursued. However, we can pay attention to the upcoming meme series of tokens launched on the Binance chain, which we will explain in detail.
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and how the overall index is performing. Gold and the U.S. dollar index have seen slight increases, while Bitcoin's total market cap accounts for 60.72%, still maintaining a high level. The wallet balance of Bitcoin on exchanges is 1.81 million BTC. Recently, we learned that Bitcoin has been flowing into exchanges, which is a bearish signal.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 43, showing a decrease compared to yesterday and the day before. When the Fear and Greed Index reaches extreme fear, it indicates overselling, which is generally a good opportunity for bottom-fishing; if it exceeds 80, indicating extreme greed, it is usually a good time to sell.
From the historical trend, the current value of the Fear and Greed Index is 43, which has not yet reached extreme panic. If it does, we will wait to see how to bottom-fish.
As for the balance in Bitcoin addresses, historically, it reached a low point two years ago and has been declining since 2024. However, a long green line has appeared, indicating that institutions and whales are withdrawing coins to exchanges.
In such cases, we usually consider this a bearish signal, so everyone should be cautious and avoid blindly over-leveraging or bottom-fishing. As for how Bitcoin's price will move in the future, let's discuss it from a technical perspective.
The weekly chart has closed, and last week's weekly closing produced a doji star, also known as a spinning top, which is a reversal star indicating significant disagreement between bulls and bears. We can see that Bitcoin is at a historical high, which we temporarily refer to as a range. The appearance of a range structure at the top indicates severe disagreement between bulls and bears.
At this point, we must be cautious, as the main force may also be distributing, or it may face a wave of adjustment. The MACD indicator on the weekly chart has formed a death cross, which is also a significant event. The last time a death cross formed was in May of last year; although the price reached new highs afterward, the subsequent pullback lasted a long time, taking 8 months to complete that adjustment.
Therefore, during this downward process, if the price continues to decline, Bitcoin will likely spend a long time consolidating or moving downward to repair the MACD's weekly death cross.
So for two months, three months, or even half a year, Bitcoin is unlikely to perform very well. There are only two possibilities: first, range-bound consolidation; second, downward movement, testing the bottom position. If the 91,500 level breaks, where is Bitcoin most likely to go? It will test the 30-week moving average at 84,000, and if 84,000 breaks, it will be 78,000. What is 78,000? It is the futures gap, which has been emphasized many times.
Looking at the daily chart for Bitcoin's price trend, the current price is under pressure from the 30-day moving average at 99,300, so we must pay attention to this level, which is an important resistance level.
When it reaches this point, we must be cautious. If the position is heavy, consider reducing it, or reduce it during the upward movement. The important support is at 96,000, which has been tested multiple times, indicating that there is buying support at this level, so 96,000 can be a signal to go long. 100,000 is a signal to short or take profits.
There are two points about Bitcoin that I want to emphasize again:
First, trade high and low between 96,000 and 100,000;
Second, trade high and low between 91,500 and 110,000.
This is our short-term and medium-term trading strategy. As Bitcoin moves this way, what will happen to Ethereum, which has an upgrade in Prague at the end of the month? With whales frequently moving on-chain, which varieties will be the next hot spots? Feel free to leave a message, and see you next time.
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