Original Title: Everything before this was just noise—now the real bull cycle begins
Original Author: hitesh.eth (@hmalviya9)
Translation by: Asher (@Asher0210_)
Recently, the price correction of Bitcoin has led to significant declines in almost all sectors of altcoins, with some sectors experiencing extreme pullbacks. According to ROOTDATA's data from February 8, since Bitcoin's first correction on December 17, 2024, the AI Agent sector has seen the largest drop at 72.41%; followed by the Meme sector with a drop of 59.24%; the GameFi sector with a drop of 56.96%; and the NFT sector with a drop of 54.8%, while other categories have also seen pullbacks exceeding 40%.
Data Source: RootData
Perhaps when the bubble bursts and the market undergoes a round of cleansing, the real bottom-fishing opportunities will quietly arrive. According to historical data backtested by analyst PlanB, all profits from Bitcoin occurred during the red periods shown in the chart (i.e., the six months before the halving to eighteen months after the halving), while the blue periods were all losses. We are currently in the red period, and the bull market is expected to last until October (starting from February).
Additionally, from a macro perspective, the true bull market cycle in crypto may have just begun.
In this article, hitesh.eth analyzes the vision of the crypto community and explores two potential paths the crypto market may face in the future: one filled with speculation and freedom in an anarchic state, and the other with gradually increasing regulation and control. As the market develops and technology advances, these two paths will become increasingly distinct, and the real bull market cycle may soon commence.
The following is the original content (reorganized for better readability):
Cryptocurrency Should Be an Anarchic Experiment
The birth of cryptocurrency was not accidental; its development spanned decades, driven by thousands of cryptographers aiming to build a truly decentralized crypto society. In this society, legal identity is no longer a prerequisite, everyone can remain anonymous, and governance, currency, communication, interaction, and collaboration are entirely driven by cryptographic technology, free from any authority constraints.
In such a world, people can freely create markets, trade without restrictions, and wealth truly belongs to individuals, while the tax system loses control. Power institutions and the banking system have long dominated the economy and are deeply entrenched in corruption, while a carefully constructed illusion makes it difficult for people to realize they are already trapped.
The Awakening of Bitcoin
The emergence of Bitcoin guides the development direction of the crypto anarchic society. It provides an alternative to the traditional financial system, allowing individuals to independently control their wealth without relying on banks or governments. For the first time, money has achieved true decentralization, with censorship resistance, transparency, and no need for permission.
In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper, which was not only a technological breakthrough but also a revolutionary idea. It shook the foundations of the centralized monetary system, revealing the drawbacks of government and financial elites manipulating fiat currency, marking an important step in breaking long-term economic oppression.
Subsequently, Ethereum built a complete development infrastructure, fully exploring the application scenarios of blockchain technology, and propelled the first wave of the crypto anarchic era.
Everything Can Be Tokenized
A crypto anarchic society needs infrastructure to support tokenization, allowing everything that can be expressed in words or images to be tokenized and liquidity markets to be established around them.
This vision was proposed as early as 1988 by legendary cypherpunk Timothy May in the "Crypto Anarchist Manifesto." He envisioned a world empowered by cryptographic tools, where privacy, freedom, and personal sovereignty are realized, free from government and centralized power control. May described how cryptographic communication, anonymous transactions, and decentralized systems render oppressive institutions irrelevant. This manifesto became the ideological cornerstone of Bitcoin and the broader crypto movement, inspiring developers and thinkers to view cryptography as the ultimate tool for human liberation.
If we set aside price fluctuations and focus on the essence of market development, we can see that last year unlocked a key liquidity guiding mechanism—the Bonding Curve. This mechanism can create liquidity markets for various text-based concepts. In the realm of images, NFTs have already completed this exploration in the last cycle. The current experimental direction is to create as many liquidity markets as possible to meet different levels of demand.
Meme Coins as Markets
On the surface, creating Meme coins seems to mean creating liquidity markets that appear meaningless, but at its core, it is about creating markets, assuming some people enjoy speculating on "X" and providing them with opportunities to enter the chain to profit from it.
In this speculative process, people form beliefs around certain things, which stem from the theories or data they adopt. Therefore, in reality, we are building liquidity markets for various tokenized beliefs.
The Wild West of Crypto Anarchy
In a state of crypto anarchy, people can trade opinions, trends, stories, articles, songs, memes, research papers, reputations, gossip, comments, recipes, and many other things that are currently unimaginable, all of which is chaotic.
As stated in the "Crypto Anarchist Manifesto," this stage will eventually be reached; we now have the infrastructure to support various wild liquidity markets, but the current problem is that most markets are exploited by powerful participants who wish to consolidate existing gains.
Addressing the issue of fair incentive distribution in liquidity markets is to create a reputation layer for the crypto anarchic state. At this level, participants can verify the creator's reputation before engaging in the market, and creators can verify their reputation before accepting users.
Two Future Pathways
The current crypto market is at a critical stage, with two pathways ahead, each with its advantages and disadvantages. The first pathway leads to more speculation and freedom, bringing about an ever-evolving state of crypto anarchy. In this state, new markets continuously emerge, wealth is constantly earned and lost in speculative cycles, and those who can adapt and act quickly will thrive.
The second pathway signifies stronger regulation and control, leading to a regulated crypto economy. Here, stable, compliant, and structured investment opportunities are provided, dominated by institutions and traditional financial players, offering a more predictable but controlled environment. As the U.S. rolls out crypto regulations, the distinctions between these two pathways will become increasingly apparent. Regulated markets will focus on "cash cow" projects and Web3 businesses generating real income, which will also mark the starting point of the first cycle of the bull market under authoritarian control.
Meanwhile, the state of crypto anarchy will continue to change rapidly on the fringes; if there are 100 markets, 99 may decline, while one market will absorb the liquidity of all other markets. The value of attention will rise, and those who can navigate this landscape will continue to win battles. In some corner of the crypto anarchic state, there will always be bull market cycles; the key lies in whether one can identify and maximize the benefits from them.
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