In the long term, AI Agents have significant development potential, which depends on the progress of AI technology itself and the time and cost of training in the Web3 field.

Author: DeFi Teddy

The valuation of AI Agents has gone on a roller coaster ride; what lies ahead? As a Web3 AI entrepreneur and investor, here are some personal thoughts:

1. Why the Crash

The crash of AI Agents was triggered by two factors: one was the meme coin of Trump, which drained liquidity from the market; on the day of Trump's launch, many people sold their AI coins to gamble on $trump. The other, more important factor was the launch of low-cost deepseek, which reduced AI's dependence on computing power, leading to a crash in Nvidia's stock, and this sentiment also affected the stock prices of other AI companies and the prices of Web3 AI Agent tokens. It even dealt a blow to U.S.-led technological innovation, as the crypto market is strongly correlated with the U.S. (U.S. stocks).

However, in the long run, the reduction in underlying computing costs is beneficial for building AI Agents. For example, when developing AI applications, due to the cost issues with ChatGPT, developers can only reduce the number of calls. With deepseek, the cost issue is greatly alleviated.

2. Valuation Logic of AI Agents

Currently, the market valuation of AI Agents = (Fundamentals + Narrative) * Market Sentiment.

Fundamentals refer to the current situation of the project, such as cash flow, active user count, user engagement time, Twitter popularity, etc., while the narrative is the project's future imagination. If the current fundamentals are average but the narrative is promising, the market will still be willing to invest. This is similar to how stock market users buy into stocks that are currently losing but have growth potential. Market sentiment is highly volatile; recently, there was significant FOMO in the market, which gave AI projects a lot of premiums; now, with severe FUD, valuations have drastically shrunk.

3. Successful Applications of AI Agents

Why focus on successful applications of AI Agents rather than AI infrastructure? Because successful applications inherently add value to the infrastructure; if we only look at the infrastructure without successful applications, the business model does not hold.

Currently, @AIxbtAgent has proven the product-market fit of AI Agents by quickly building a crypto KOL that surpasses humans through LLM, and AIxbtAgent has consistently ranked in the top 3 in kAIto's mindshare.

Additionally, @kAItoAI, although not an AI Agent, is also a successful application of Web3 AI. Previously, kAIto's crypto data analysis did not have a particularly good breakout point, but through yaps, it found its product-market fit, using LLM technology to identify quality KOLs and content, and also helping project teams with marketing. Some top projects like @StoryProtocol and @monadxyz have established collaborations with KAIto, allowing both project teams and users to engage in yaps, ultimately benefiting KAIto the most.

4. Challenges Facing AI Agents

The first issue is market sentiment, which can be repaired over time; the second is liquidity; if there are liquidity issues in the entire crypto market, AI Agents rooted in the crypto space will definitely be affected. The third issue is that many pump-and-dump AI Agents lack long-term development plans, squeezing the space for genuine long-term builders, leading to a certain degree of bad money driving out good money. The fourth issue is that while AI has strong language capabilities, it does not excel in making real trading decisions and can sometimes lead to investment errors due to hallucinations.

5. Future Outlook

In the short term, AI Agents may be constrained by the above issues, but in the long term, there is significant development potential, which depends on the progress of AI technology itself and the time and cost of training in the Web3 field. @AIxbt_Agent has already become a successful crypto KOL, and the next stage is DeFAI, although it is still early. Looking back, DeFi was first proposed in the summer of 2018, and its real boom came two years later during DeFi Summer; perhaps DeFAI will also need a similar cycle.

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