"Weekly Editor's Picks" is a "functional" column of Odaily Planet Daily. Based on the extensive coverage of real-time information each week, the Planet Daily also publishes many high-quality in-depth analysis articles, but they may be hidden among the information flow and trending news, passing you by.
Therefore, our editorial team will select some quality articles worth spending time reading and saving from the content published in the past 7 days every Saturday, providing you with new insights from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and opinion output, as you navigate the crypto world.
Now, let's read together:
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Arthur Hayes: How Bitcoin Will Fall Back to $70,000 - A Systematic Argument
The market's fear of inflation is intensifying, as yields continue to rise even if the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy (cuts interest rates). Tech stocks are extremely sensitive to interest rates; when the discount rate for future cash flows rises, the present value of tech stocks declines. When dysfunction in the financial system causes yields to break through a critical level, this mathematical relationship reveals its ugliest side.
The massive monetary easing policies of the U.S., China, and Japan cannot be initiated before a small financial crisis occurs. If a fiat liquidity crunch is imminent, Bitcoin's price will collapse ahead of the stock market and become a leading indicator of financial stress.
Arthur believes there is a: 60% probability - Bitcoin will correct by 30%; 40% probability - the bull market continues, and Bitcoin will rise by 10%. Therefore, risk should be reduced at this time - liquidate most altcoins and wait to "buy the dip" during the final large-scale liquidation, acquiring crypto junk in the market and earning 2x or even 3x profits on quality altcoins.
Protecting Gains: Using a Bear Put Ladder Strategy to Tackle Bitcoin Volatility
The article introduces an options trading idea that can profit in a slightly bearish market environment - as long as Bitcoin stays above $83,000, it can achieve breakeven or better returns; it also details the trading structure, explores different profit scenarios, and emphasizes the main risks to consider.
Altcoin Investment Guide: From "Mining Disaster Ruins" to "Golden Veins"
The current altcoin market resembles coal stocks around 2015 - capacity clearing is happening rapidly, market enthusiasm is declining quickly, and both negative and positive news can no longer trigger industry fluctuations, while facing the siphoning effect of alternative sectors (DEX) in the eyes of the entire market. However, there is nothing new under the sun; the first principle of investment is always liquidity and cheapness.
DEX is rewriting the rules of pricing power.
CEX strategies include: picking up penny stocks, waiting for industry cycles, liquidity arbitrage; DEX strategies include: early sniping, observing community consensus.
From VC Coins to Meme Craze, the Crypto Market is Exhausted
Meme narratives have been overhyped and saturated, further shortening users' attention spans.
2024 highlights two extremes:
Venture capitalists hold too much power: retail investors cannot participate in private rounds and can only act as exit liquidity.
Unlimited meme coin acquisition has led to a player-to-player market, worsening overall market conditions.
Both have the same consequence: dissatisfaction among retail investors and a demand for balance and stability.
We leave some possible thoughts to see what the future might look like: a return to practicality, reducing focus on meme coins, and paying more attention to practical projects.
Like all proprietary trading firms, Wintermute's goal is to make money through trading, not to be a charity. Since 2020, its venture capital department has been investing in cryptocurrencies and has never net shorted; cryptocurrency exposure has always accounted for 20% to 30% of net assets.
Wintermute's core business is DeFi, CeFi, and OTC, switching battlefields according to market hotspots, welcoming BTC, ETH L2, Meme, and AI. To say we are shorting the market is pure nonsense.
CeFi market making, DeFi arbitrage, OTC trading, and other operations remain risk-neutral; occasionally, they will actively bet on market direction, but positions are small and not held long.
Tokens fall due to macroeconomic influences, supply-demand imbalances, and market-making protocol terms.
Also recommended: "Arthur Hayes' New Article: Beyond Bitcoin's National Reserves, America's Crypto Hegemony Has Other Designs", "KOL Trading Address Lookup Guide (with a file of addresses for hundreds of KOLs)", "Current Status Survey of Technical Tools: Accelerated Tool Migration, User Experience More Important than Functionality".
Policy
The core tasks and challenges of cryptocurrency regulation include: determining the securities status of crypto assets, compliance of crypto token issuance and trading, and compliance of crypto lending and staking businesses.
In the short term, the market will inevitably experience wild fluctuations to digest various major trends, but long-term value growth and industry consolidation require not just favorable policies, but a two-way game between the market and politicians.
Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide
Beyond the Bear Chain, Reviewing Popular Public Chain Ecosystem Projects About to TGE
Meme
Decoding Moonshot Listing Data: 50% Can't Escape the Fate of Zero, One-Third "Peak Upon Listing"
116 tokens were listed in three months, 68 are nearly at zero, and one-third "peaked upon listing";
40% of tokens at least doubled after listing, with TRUMP dominating the capital inflow;
Projects with a pullback of around 50% are actually considered to have fallen relatively little.
Ethereum
The recent market volatility of Ethereum is driven by external factors influenced by the overall market and macroeconomic conditions, as well as internal factors such as the continuous increase in contract positions, escalating bets, and poor on-chain data performance leading to sustained sluggishness. The final result is a significant decrease in both long and short positions; after the crash on February 3, the price quickly rebounded to over $2,900 in a short period. Meanwhile, funds in the U.S. spot ETF are generally flowing in, reflecting the divergence between the spot and futures markets.
Moving forward, the key to truly driving market recovery may lie in whether the various activity data of the Ethereum ecosystem can show real growth.
Also recommended: "Ether.fi: The Best Yield Opportunity for On-Chain ETH Holders".
Web3 & AI
DeepSeek's Rise: How AI Can Bring DeFi Mainstream
The essence of DeFAI is to make AI the "autopilot" of the on-chain world. The complexity of DeFi has always been a barrier for ordinary users, while DeFAI is expected to simplify the user experience through AI, attracting more mainstream users: it can analyze on-chain data in real-time and help you execute complex strategies like cross-chain arbitrage, dynamic staking, and flash loan combinations, even participating in protocol upgrades through DAO governance, just as search engines allow ordinary people to access the internet without understanding TCP protocols, DeFAI will enable every novice user to have hedge fund-level asset management capabilities.
As Deepseek R1 lowers the AI threshold, DeFAI forms a positive cycle: agent explosion, efficiency improvement, industry growth.
AI developers in fields like DeFAI can break through the traditional API charging model: hosting AI instances, building service layers, and creating agent markets.
After the AI Tide Recedes, How Do Leading Projects Choose to Save Themselves and Break Through?
Flexing muscles and building relationships represent: arc; product updates represent: GRIFFAIN, AVA, BUZZ, etc., integrating DeepSeek, LMT, ZEREBRO, and other high-frequency updates and exposure; swarms have made pioneering moves - "requesting token holders to invest/stake tokens in the DAO."
Now, leading projects are no longer keen on "making big news," but are turning to further demonstrate their ability to develop products and commit to long-term product development. The main theme of 2025 will still be AI; after the bubble clears, growth may no longer be based on "narratives," but on "products."
After the Bubble Bursts, I Choose to Buy the Dip on These AI Agent Projects
FARTCOIN, ai16z, arc, swarms, ALCH.
Interpreting 25 DeFAI Potential Projects
As an emerging field, most DeFAI projects are still in the testing phase. The actual performance of trading agents still needs time to be validated.
The automated DeFi execution mechanism is a major highlight, successfully simplifying complex operational processes and enhancing user experience.
Currently, establishing competitive barriers in the DeFAI field is relatively difficult, as many projects have similar functions and positioning. The token value acquisition mechanisms of most projects are not prominent, and some even lack practicality altogether. Additionally, some terminals exhibit long delays in responding to queries, which may stem from performance limitations of the underlying chain or insufficient agent optimization.
Also recommended: "Is There Still Hope for DeFAI's Continuous Decline?".
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
In the past week, on February 3, the market plummeted; a new U.S. bill has made downloading DeepSeek a crime, with a maximum sentence of 20 years and a $1 million fine;
Additionally, in terms of policy and the macro market, U.S. Senator Hagerty proposed the “GENIUS” stablecoin bill; 15 U.S. states are promoting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, with Arizona and Utah currently leading; David Sacks: cryptocurrency regulatory legislation is expected to be completed within the next six months; the U.S. SEC has required its staff to obtain upper management approval before initiating investigations after leadership changes; Trump signed an executive order to establish a sovereign wealth fund; Musk: the U.S. government's efficiency department will suspend payments to contractors from the Treasury; the U.S. Treasury clarified that the government efficiency department only has “read-only” access to the payment system and has not suspended or refused payments; Trump has instructed Musk to review the U.S. Department of Defense's expenditures; El Salvador has revoked Bitcoin's legal tender status (details); Bank of America: the global dominance of U.S. stocks is weakening, recommending to go long on Chinese stocks;
In terms of opinions and voices, David Sacks: will promote regulation, ensuring innovation in the crypto space occurs in the U.S.; Bitwise CIO: the four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies may have ended, Washington will lead the next decade of crypto trends; Michael Saylor: never sell your Bitcoin; Matrixport: a significant technical divergence has appeared between Bitcoin's price and RSI, indicating weakening momentum; Coinbase executive: Trump may profit over $800 million from the TRUMP he launched; MV Global partner: there is no project in the industry that needs over $10 million in funding; He Yi: regarding Labs and friend’s doubts, welcomes evidence and criticism; Sun Yuchen: Li Lin concealed due diligence materials when selling Huobi, there is a $30 million hole internally; Li Lin responded: “$30 million funding hole” is not true, it was actually due to extreme market conditions causing a margin call during the operation of the margin trading business; DeepSeek: has not issued any virtual currency;
Regarding institutions, large companies, and leading projects, MicroStrategy has changed its name to Strategy; BlackRock has increased its stake in Strategy (MicroStrategy) stock, raising its holding to 5%; Trump Media & Technology Group has submitted a trademark registration for “TRUTH.FI BITCOIN PLUS ETF”; the Trump family crypto project WLFI plans to establish a “strategic reserve” using held tokens; Ethereum's Pectra upgrade has finalized the testnet execution time, with the mainnet upgrade time expected to be confirmed on March 6; HashKey Capital has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide full discretionary account management services for virtual assets to professional investors; Berachain announced its token economics: a total of 500 million tokens, with 15.8% allocated for airdrops; Berachain has launched an airdrop query; Solayer announced LAYER token economics: a total of 1 billion tokens, with 12% used for the Genesis Drop; megaETH announced the launch of the NFT series The Fluffle, which has sparked controversy; PAIN raised over 180,000 SOL in 48 hours;
In terms of data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 4.50%, potentially opening the door for further declines; Tether CEO: profits could reach $13.7 billion in 2024, with global users exceeding 400 million and only 165 employees; on February 1, the total market cap of stablecoins exceeded $217.4 billion, setting a new record, with USDC's market cap growing over 22% in the past 30 days;
In terms of security, the Ionic platform on Mode was attacked, with hackers using fake LBTC as collateral, resulting in Ionic losing $8.6 million; the former Midas protocol had been attacked twice; Jupiter X account was hacked and suspicious token information was released; Jupiter co-founder responded to the official X account being hacked: a certain employee went missing, and the account was accessed by an Android phone in the U.S.… well, it was another eventful week.
Attached is the Weekly Editor's Picks series portal.
See you next time~
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