During the Spring Festival of 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) market experienced significant fluctuations, with prices swinging dramatically in a short period, attracting heightened attention from investors.

This article will delve into the recent dynamics of the Bitcoin market, summarizing the views of major financial institutions and well-known KOLs, and combining technical analysis with macroeconomic factors to provide a forward-looking outlook on future market trends, aiming to offer investors deeper and more valuable references.

1. Recent Bitcoin Market Review and Analysis

As of February 7, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $97,273, slightly down from the previous trading day. Looking back at recent market trends, Bitcoin's price once broke through the $100,000 mark but quickly retreated, touching the support level around $92,000. This dramatic fluctuation reflects the complexity of market sentiment and the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

1. Market Volatility Analysis

The sharp volatility in Bitcoin's price is partly due to the high volatility characteristics of the market itself. As an emerging digital asset, the Bitcoin market is relatively small and easily influenced by large transactions and market sentiment. Additionally, changes in macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies have also intensified market uncertainty.

2. Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis

AiCoin data shows that recent open interest (OI) in Bitcoin has decreased, indicating a decline in market participation. This may suggest that investors are adopting a cautious stance in the current market environment, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, changes in trading volume need to be analyzed in conjunction with other factors and cannot simply be interpreted as a decrease in market enthusiasm.

2. Views from Major Financial Institutions

1. Standard Chartered:

In its latest report, Standard Chartered reiterated its optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that its price will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and is expected to climb to $500,000 by 2028. The bank's analysts pointed out that this prediction is based on several factors:

• Increased market maturity: The Bitcoin market is gradually maturing, with increased participation from institutional investors, enhancing market liquidity and stabilizing prices.
• Growing institutional interest: More institutional investors are beginning to pay attention to and allocate Bitcoin, providing support for its price increase.
• Decreased market volatility: As the market expands and regulations improve, Bitcoin's market volatility is expected to gradually decrease, attracting more investors.

2. Citibank:

Analysts at Citibank stated that in the long term, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and traditional stock markets will gradually weaken. This means that digital assets like Bitcoin may operate independently of traditional financial markets, exhibiting their own unique price trends. The bank advises investors to consider including crypto assets in their portfolios to achieve diversification and reduce correlation risks with traditional markets.

3. BlackRock:

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently stated that if large investors such as sovereign wealth funds enter the Bitcoin market, its price could rise significantly. He mentioned that if investors allocate 2% to 5% of their assets to Bitcoin, its price could reach $700,000. However, he also emphasized that Bitcoin is still viewed as a speculative asset, and investors should approach it with caution.

3. Views from Well-Known KOLs

1. Rekt Capital:

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin's market dominance needs to break through 70% for a new altcoin season to emerge. Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to 64.3% but then fell back to 61%, although the overall trend remains upward. He believes that if Bitcoin's market dominance encounters resistance at 71%, the market may see a rally in altcoins.

2. CryptoGoos:

Analyst CryptoGoos mentioned that BlackRock has been continuously increasing its holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum during the recent market correction. This move corresponds with the ongoing decline in exchange supply, indicating that demand for crypto assets is increasing. He believes this may signal further price increases for Bitcoin.

4. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

1. Technical Analysis:

According to analysis from Investopedia, Bitcoin has recently dropped about 15%, with key support levels around $92,000 and $87,000. If these support levels are breached, it may further decline to $74,000. Conversely, if a rebound occurs, attention should be paid to the resistance level at $106,000. This analysis employs technical chart patterns, such as double tops and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), to assess potential price movements.

2. Market Sentiment:

AiCoin data shows that the long-short ratio is currently 0.9849, indicating a slight improvement in market sentiment. However, open interest (OI) has decreased by 2.30%, falling to $58.84 billion, suggesting a decline in market participation.

5. Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts

1. Policy Impact:

Recently, U.S. Senator Ant Thornton submitted the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act" to the New Mexico Senate, proposing to invest 5% of public funds in Bitcoin, aiming to establish an alternative treasury for the state. The introduction of this bill indicates that Bitcoin's recognition at the sovereign level is increasing, which may positively impact its price.

2. Macroeconomic Factors:

The global macroeconomic situation is complex and ever-changing, with factors such as inflation pressures, tightening monetary policies, and geopolitical risks potentially impacting the crypto market. Investors need to closely monitor these changes to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.

6. Investor Recommendations

In light of the current market environment, investors should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude. When formulating investment strategies, it is recommended to focus on the following points:

• Risk Management: Set clear stop-loss levels to avoid significant losses due to market fluctuations.
• Diversified Investment: In addition to Bitcoin, consider allocating other crypto assets or traditional assets to spread risk.
• Continuous Learning: Stay updated on market dynamics and professional analyses to enhance investment knowledge and judgment.
• Emotion Control: Avoid making irrational investment decisions due to market sentiment fluctuations; remain calm and rational.

The Bitcoin market is full of opportunities and challenges. The views of various institutions and KOLs provide investors with multi-faceted analyses and references. However, market predictions carry uncertainty, and investors should maintain independent thinking, combining their risk tolerance and investment goals to formulate appropriate investment strategies.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice.

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