On February 5, ARK Invest, founded by Cathie Wood, released its annual "Big Ideas" report. The report introduces the current status and future important trends of accelerated technological development across 11 sectors, including artificial intelligence, AI agents, Bitcoin, public chains, robotics, energy storage, and autonomous driving. The complete content totals 148 pages. In the Bitcoin section of the report, ARK Invest predicts that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, with AI agents bringing about epoch-making changes.
ARK Invest states that this year's report presents 11 "Big Ideas," showcasing the significant transformations currently underway. Our research indicates that these "Big Ideas" are expected to significantly enhance productivity, fundamentally change various industries, and create long-term investment opportunities.
Carbon Chain Value has extracted five of the "Big Ideas": Bitcoin, artificial intelligence/AI agents, stablecoins, and the expansion of public chains for readers' reference and learning. The overall impression of this year's report is that it places considerable emphasis on AI and Crypto. For instance, Bitcoin, public chains, stablecoins, DeFi, DEX, smart contracts, and digital wallets are all introduced and predicted accordingly. If readers are interested in the report, they can download the full version from the ARK Invest official website to read the remaining content.
Here are the five "Big Ideas" report excerpts compiled by Carbon Chain Value:
1. Bitcoin: A Global Currency System Maturing, with a Robust Network and Increasing Institutional Adoption
Bitcoin Hits All-Time High in 2024
Bitcoin Spot ETF is the Most Successful ETF in History
The Bitcoin spot ETF attracted over $4 billion in inflows on its first day of trading, setting a record for the highest inflow since the launch of an ETF, surpassing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's "2012 Bitcoin ETF Market Report." In November 2004, the gold ETF saw $1.2 billion in inflows in its first month. The inflow for the Bitcoin spot ETF far exceeds the first-month inflows of approximately 6,000 ETFs issued over the past 30 years.
Bitcoin's Inflation Rate Falls Below Long-Term Supply Growth of Gold After Fourth Halving
After the fourth "halving" of Bitcoin's supply growth, the annual growth rate dropped from about 1.8% to approximately 0.9%. The halving is crucial to its design, highlighting Bitcoin's predictable monetary policy and its role as a scarce asset.
Bitcoin's Annual Volatility Drops to Historic Lows, Yet Its Risk-Adjusted Returns Still Outperform Most Major Asset Classes
Despite a Significant Drop in Miner Revenue Post-Halving, Bitcoin's Hash Rate Reaches All-Time Highs
Although the halving led to a 50% reduction in Bitcoin miner revenue, its hash rate reached an all-time high. In other words, miners' long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains strong.
Transaction Volume Soars, Thanks to Runes
Bitcoin's daily transaction volume hit an all-time high, thanks to the launch of the Runes protocol. The Runes protocol facilitates the creation of alternative tokens directly on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Bitcoin Absorbs Significant Sell Pressure in 2024
In January 2024, the German government seized 50,000 Bitcoins related to a cyber piracy group. Six months later, it sold these Bitcoins. The market successfully absorbed the supply, and Bitcoin's price rose from $53,000 to $68,000. Additionally, around mid-year, the long-awaited Mt. Gox1 creditor repayment program distributed over 109,000 Bitcoins, resolving its largest outstanding issue.
An Increasing Number of Public Companies Hold Bitcoin
Currently, 74 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Over the past year, the value on company balance sheets has quintupled, increasing from $11 billion in 2023 to $55 billion.
Bitcoin's Total Cost Basis Reaches New Highs in 2024
In 2024, Bitcoin's realized capitalization (or cost basis) grew by 86%, as its average acquisition cost reached an all-time high of $40,980 per Bitcoin, totaling $811.7 billion.
Bitcoin's Transaction Speed and Holding Behavior Highlight Its Role as a Store of Value
In 2024, Bitcoin's transaction speed fell to its lowest level in 14 years, as the supply held for three years or longer reached an all-time high.
Bitcoin is Expected to Achieve Our 2030 Price Target: $1.5 Million/BTC
2. Artificial Intelligence Computing is Doubling in Speed, Approaching the End of the Board
Primarily due to improvements in AI system architecture, the performance of artificial intelligence computing is expected to increase by over 1,000 times per dollar by 2030. At that time, we anticipate computing performance will be 64 times greater than when integrated circuits were first introduced.
Advancements in AI Will Unlock Huge Market Opportunities
As artificial intelligence continues to accelerate, autonomous taxis will become increasingly common, drug development time and costs will significantly decrease, and AI agents will be able to autonomously solve software engineering challenges, monitoring and modifying systems around the clock.
Technological Revolution Accelerates Integration
ARK measures the extent to which technology acts as a catalyst between innovative platforms. The degree of integration among them has increased by 30% over the past year.
Artificial intelligence is crucial for unlocking the value of precision medicine and multi-omics technologies. The smart contract ecosystem is becoming a testing platform, where autonomous AI agents can be rewarded for enhancing capabilities. The demand for next-generation cloud energy is driving the timeline for distributed energy generation.
The Accelerated Development of Neural Networks is Speeding Up the Advancement of All Other Disruptive Technologies
Advancements in AI, Energy Storage, and Public Blockchains are Crucial to the Pace of Technological Progress
Among disruptive technologies, neural networks are the most important catalyst.
According to our research, advancements in neural networks will increase the value of at least six out of 14 other technologies by an order of magnitude, creating significant market expansion for next-generation cloud, smart devices, autonomous mobility, humanoid robots, precision medicine, and multi-omics technologies. The technology revolution led by artificial intelligence may bring substantial increases in productivity and a stepwise growth in economic expansion.
Technological Turning Points Should Bring GDP Turning Points
Structural changes in the basic growth rate of the macroeconomy are historical patterns, not exceptions.
After experiencing 100,000 years of economic stagnation, innovation, particularly the advent of writing, enabled empires to connect continents, resulting in a fourfold increase in actual growth rates by the year 1000.
Agricultural innovations led to increased population density and labor specialization, doubling the annual growth rate to 0.3% by 1500.
In the 400 years leading up to 1900, the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution swept the globe, again doubling the annual GDP growth rate to 0.6%.
The Second Industrial Revolution, marked by electrification, automobiles, and telephones, ushered in the modern era, achieving an average growth rate five times higher over the past 125 years, reaching 3%. Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and bionic robots may again enhance productivity, achieving another growth step within the next 5 to 10 years.
Disruptive Innovations May Gradually Dominate the Market
Disruptive innovations could account for more than two-thirds of the global stock market, with a compound annual growth rate of 38% by 2030.
In the realm of innovation, market value may surpass the so-called Mag 6. Non-innovative companies may begin to shrink, as technology-related deflation threatens profitability and competitiveness, even in a rapidly growing macroeconomic environment.
3. AI Agents: Redefining Consumer Interaction and Business Workflows
What are AI Agents?
AI Agents are expected to accelerate the adoption of digital applications and bring about epoch-making changes in human-computer interaction.
AI Agents:
Understand intent through natural language, plan using reasoning and appropriate context. Take action using tools to achieve intent. Improve through iteration and continuous learning. Utilize smarter models to complete higher-value tasks with more tools.
AI is Accelerating the Adoption of Hardware and Software
OpenAI's revenue could exceed $10 billion by 2025, with a monetization speed faster than social media companies over the past decade. If the adoption of ChatGPT is an indicator, AI should drive rapid demand for a range of new technologies.
AI Agents Will Change Consumer Search and Discovery
AI Agents embedded in consumer hardware operating systems will enable consumers to delegate all discovery and research to AI, saving significant time. Curated AI results will make digital advertising impressions more contextual.
By 2030, Digital Advertising Revenue Will Be the Largest Share
If search shifts to personal AI Agents, artificial intelligence advertising revenue could surge. By 2030, we believe AI advertising revenue will account for over 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market.
By 2030, AI Shopping Could Account for 25% of Global Addressable Online Sales
The increasing use of AI Agents in consumer shopping should simplify product discovery, personalization, and purchasing.
ARK research indicates that by 2030, AI Agents could facilitate nearly $9 trillion in global online consumption.
Digital Wallets Are Expected to Continue Expanding Their Share in E-Commerce
ARK's research suggests that by 2030, digital wallets supported by AI procurement agents (replacing payment methods like credit and debit cards) could account for 72% of all e-commerce transactions.
Digital Wallets Are Integrating Financial Services and E-Commerce
Based on consumer-facing operations, the market currently values leading digital wallet platforms like Block, Robinhood, and SoFi at $1,800 per user.
Procurement Agents Could Become Central to the Shopping Journey
Lead generation for potential customers should drive digital wallets upstream to capture market share in global e-commerce and digital consumption. "One-click checkout" should give way to "one-click purchase."
Procurement Agents Should Enhance the Enterprise Value of Digital Wallets, Especially in E-Commerce
Based on lead generation rates, AI Agents could create global revenues of $40 billion to $200 billion for digital wallet platforms by 2030 (ARK's base and optimistic scenarios, respectively).
By 2030, AI Agents could add $50 to $200 in enterprise value (EV) for each user of digital wallets in the U.S.
In Enterprises, AI Agents Will Increase Productivity Through Software
Companies deploying AI Agents should be able to increase unit quantities and/or optimize their workforce to engage in higher-value activities with the same labor force. As artificial intelligence evolves, AI Agents may handle a higher proportion of workloads and independently complete higher-value tasks.
Declining AI Costs Will Significantly Impact the Economics of AI Agents
New products from OpenAI and Salesforce are economically supplementing human customer service representatives. Even with a fixed cost of $1 per conversation, as long as AI Agents can handle 35% of customer service inquiries, they can save businesses substantial amounts. AI Agents should also reduce onboarding and recruitment costs as well as seat-based software costs, while being easier to scale than human labor.
Artificial Intelligence is Reshaping the Software Value Chain
The coding skills of AI Agents are rapidly improving, accelerating the software development cycle. As the cost of software creation declines, software production should accelerate and influence businesses' "build or buy" decisions, replacing less adaptable traditional software companies. With a surge in customer software, growth across all layers of the software stack should accelerate, even as shares shift toward the platform layer.
Artificial Intelligence Will Enhance Knowledge Work
Artificial intelligence is driving a Cambrian explosion in the software industry. By 2030, as companies invest in productivity solutions, we expect a significant increase in the number of software deployed per knowledge worker. Based on adoption rates, global software spending could accelerate from an average of 14% over the past decade to an annual growth rate of 18% to 48%.
4. Stablecoins: Reshaping the Digital Asset Space
As one of the fastest-growing areas in digital assets, stablecoins surpassed Mastercard and Visa in transaction volume in 2024.
Despite experiencing a two-year bear market with a market cap decline of over 70%, the growth of stablecoins has remained uninterrupted. In 2024, the annualized transaction volume of stablecoins reached $15.6 trillion, approximately 119% and 200% of Visa and Mastercard, respectively. Monthly transaction volume reached 110 million, accounting for about 0.41% and 0.72% of the transaction volume processed by Visa and Mastercard. In other words, the value of stablecoins per transaction is significantly higher than that of Visa and Mastercard.
December 2024 Sees Record High Stablecoin Transaction Volume
Solana, Tron, Ethereum, and Base are the main public chains driving the growth of stablecoin transaction volume in 2024. December 2024 set a new record with daily transaction volume reaching $270 billion and monthly transaction volume hitting $2.7 trillion, highlighting the rapid growth of the industry.
Ethena Labs Tokenizes Popular Base Trading and Accumulates $6 Billion in 12 Months
Innovation in the stablecoin space is thriving, with Ethena Labs being one of the fastest-growing projects. Despite criticism of its novel design, the project has captured a significant share of the non-fiat-backed stablecoin market and has become a major competitor in this $200 billion sector.
Ethena Labs locked a total value of $6 billion in its first 12 months. By tokenizing delta-neutral positions, Ethena Labs can offer yields of up to 20%-30%, depending on market conditions. In a bear market, yields may turn negative. Ethena Labs has captured 10% of the total holdings on Ethereum and is expanding into delta-neutral trading on Solana and Bitcoin.
After a Decline in 2023, Stablecoin Supply and Active Stablecoin Addresses Reach Historic Highs in 2024
USDT (Tether) continues to dominate the stablecoin space, followed by USDC (Circle). Together, they account for 90% of the total supply. Stablecoins are "multi-chain," permeating almost all major Layer 1 blockchains. The stablecoin supply stands at $203 billion, accounting for approximately 0.97% of the U.S. M2 money supply. In December, active stablecoin addresses reached 23 million, a historic high. Measured by monthly active addresses, Tron is the leading network, favored in emerging markets for its low transaction fees.
As Some Countries Gradually Abandon the Dollar, Digital Assets Are Aligning with the Dollar
Digital assets are undergoing "stablecoinization" and "dollarization," with China and Japan selling record amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds, Saudi Arabia ending a 45-year oil dollar agreement, and BRICS countries reducing reliance on dollar payments by bypassing the SWIFT network. Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have served as bridges into the digital asset ecosystem. However, over the past two years, stablecoins have replaced them, currently accounting for 35% to 50% of on-chain transaction volume.
Dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate, accounting for over 98% of the supply, followed by gold-backed stablecoins and euro-backed stablecoins, which account for about 1% and 0.5%, respectively. ARK's research indicates that the market will continue to expand, including stablecoins backed by Asian currencies.
Stablecoins Are Attracting Retail Investor Interest Due to Lower Costs and Higher Efficiency of Layer 2
Retail investors are flocking to Layer 2 for cheaper and more convenient stablecoin trading, increasing the market share of blockchains like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism. Meanwhile, whales and institutions continue to operate on the base layer of Ethereum. Transactions under $100 dominate on Base and Optimism, while transactions over $100 dominate on the base layer of Ethereum.
Peer-to-Peer Transactions and Personal Wallet Storage Dominate Stablecoin Use Cases
Externally owned accounts (EOA) — standard Ethereum addresses used for peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions and storage — account for 60% of USDC usage, while centralized exchanges account for 11%, Ethereum Layer 2 cross-chain bridges account for 7%, and decentralized exchanges (DEX) and money markets each account for 1.7%.
With the anticipated surge in DeFi usage over the next few years, DEXs, bridges, and money markets may reclaim market share from P2P.
While the usage of lending markets, DEXs, and bridges fluctuates with market cycles, P2P transactions and storage are more resilient, as they have a higher product-market fit beyond just trading.
Four Major Stablecoin Issuers Dominate Revenue Generated in Digital Assets
Tether has fewer than 200 employees and reported a profit of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024, which includes USDT, other products and services, and unrealized gains from digital assets — clearly one of the most capital-efficient businesses in history.
Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) account for 60% of the revenue generated by the top five networks and applications. In the second half of 2024, stablecoins USDT, USDC, DAI/USDS, and USDE collectively generated $3.35 billion in revenue, annualized to $6.7 billion.
Tether's Financial Performance is Impressive, Both Absolutely and Relatively
Tether has fewer than 200 employees, while JPMorgan and Berkshire Hathaway each have over 300,000 employees. In the first half of 2024, the only institution in the S&P Financial Select Industry Index with net income exceeding Tether's is Berkshire Hathaway, along with JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.
To Balance "De-dollarization," Stablecoins Are Increasing Demand for U.S. Treasuries as Collateral
In a world moving towards de-globalization and de-dollarization, stablecoins may drive stable demand for U.S. Treasuries. As of December 2024, Tether and Circle have collectively become the 20th largest holder of U.S. Treasuries.
In populous emerging markets such as Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia, and India, individuals and companies are adopting stablecoins as a store of value, means of payment, and cross-border currency. Stablecoins may become one of the most effective ways to export dollars.
Stablecoin Issuers Are Shifting Risk-Free Interest Rates to Users
Circle and Tether have been generating billions in revenue through Treasury bills and other securities as collateral for their stablecoins. However, in 2024, to respond to competition and demand, stablecoins operating outside the U.S. began transferring a significant portion of their interest income to users.
Unless absolutely necessary, Circle and Tether are unlikely to follow this trend. Although still small in scale, yield-bearing stablecoins are the fastest-growing category in the stablecoin market.
By 2030, the proportion of stablecoins in the global M2 supply of fiat currency may increase from 0.17% to 0.9%
Currently, stablecoins amount to $203 billion, accounting for 0.17% of the global M2 supply. By 2030, stablecoins could rise to $1.4 trillion and 0.9%.
At that time, stablecoins will become the 13th largest circulating currency globally, just behind Spain and ahead of the Netherlands.
5. Public Chain Expansion: Significant Cost Reductions and New Use Cases Emerging at the Application Layer
Exploring the Field of Smart Contracts
As the digital asset space becomes increasingly complex, smart contracts are driving innovation across more industries. The ecosystem is rapidly evolving to meet diverse and dynamic demands—from user-centric applications (such as gaming and SocialFi) to advanced financial tools (such as derivatives and structured products), and decentralized infrastructure networks supporting wireless connectivity and energy storage.
Applications seeking lower fees and higher efficiency are either deployed on Solana's high-throughput Layer 1 or on Ethereum's Layer 2
Ethereum's EIP 4844 upgrade has reduced transaction costs by 10 times, stimulating applications
One of Ethereum's most significant technological upgrades to date, EIP 4844, has impacted Layer 2 networks by enabling faster and cheaper transactions.
Before the EIP 4844 upgrade, the average transaction fee on Ethereum Layer 2 was about $0.50. Now, users only need to pay around $0.05.
EIP 4844 is the first milestone in the roadmap, which should be able to increase the transactions per second (TPS) from about 400 today to between 250 and 1250 times, reaching 100,000-500,000.
Over 200 Layer 2 projects have been launched, with more projects in progress.
The decline in transaction costs has led to a surge in Layer 2 activity, pulling users away from Ethereum's base layer
In the Ethereum ecosystem, Layer 2 accounts for 85% of daily active addresses engaged in transactions. Layer 2 activity has increased Ethereum's daily transaction volume from 3 million to 15 million in 2024, a growth of 400%.
Base is the fastest-growing Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain
Within a year of its launch, Base has surpassed all other Ethereum Layer 2 solutions in growth and market share. In 2024, Base accounted for 46% of active users and generated 63% of fees on Ethereum Layer 2. With a total locked value of $15 billion and over 300 deployed applications, Base has made a significant contribution to Coinbase's cash flow.
Despite the migration to Layer 2, Ethereum's base layer still dominates high-value storage and settlement
Institutions, high-value users, and whales primarily settle transactions on Ethereum's base layer. Measured by total locked value (TVL) and decentralized exchange (DEX) volume per user, the unit economics of Ethereum's base layer are unparalleled.
As DeFi Soars to Historic Highs, DEXs Challenge CEXs in Spot and Derivatives Trading
As Binance reached a settlement of over $4 billion with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its CEO stepped down in 2024, centralized exchanges (CEXs) lost some market share to decentralized exchanges (DEXs). From January to the peak, DeFi trading volume in spot and derivatives nearly doubled, with market shares rising from 8% and 3% to 14% and 8%, respectively, reaching historic highs. During the same period, Binance's market share in centralized exchanges fell from 62% to 35%.
Smart contract-driven exchanges are 5-10 times more efficient than centralized exchanges
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap, Aerodrome, and Raydium leverage the efficiency of small agile teams to develop and maintain core protocol infrastructure. Compared to centralized exchanges, DEXs have a significant efficiency advantage, with staff numbers only one-tenth that of centralized exchanges. Binance has about 9,000 employees, leading in staff numbers in the centralized exchange space.
Liquid staking and re-staking protocols are the preferred options for staking and re-staking ETH
Liquid staking and re-staking have become the preferred methods for generating Ether yields. Due to their yield characteristics, liquidity, and accessibility, they now account for 40% of ETH staking. The demand for re-staking ETH to increase yields has given rise to re-staking platforms, which now account for about 5.5 million staked Ether, or 17% of staked ETH.
Led by Polymarket, prediction markets become a breakthrough consumer application in 2024
In 2024, Polymarket accumulated over 3 million users, with monthly trading volume reaching $1.2 billion, 70% of which was related to elections and politics. After a brief post-election drop, the number of daily unique users has rebounded to 50,000, with trading volume on the rise, with sports being the most significant category.
Solana's throughput exceeds Ethereum's, thanks to its high-performance design and strategic trade-offs
Thanks to Layer 2 and the EIP 4844 upgrade, Ethereum's throughput has more than doubled to about 200 transactions per second (TPS). Nevertheless, Solana continues to perform exceptionally well, with an average throughput of about 800 TPS.
Solana's success is based on a series of trade-offs, including more expensive hardware requirements and parallel transaction processing. Solana's new Firedancer client can boost its throughput to hundreds of thousands of TPS.
Due to significant retail adoption, Solana has gained market share across multiple metrics
After hitting a bear market low of $8 in 2023, Solana has seen a significant recovery compared to other Layer 1s. Daily active users, revenue, transaction numbers, and total locked value (TVL) have all reached historic highs or increased by an order of magnitude. Solana is the only Layer 1 that competes with Ethereum and Bitcoin on metrics like daily active addresses and revenue.
Solana and Base are leading in developer adoption and market share
Among the 39,139 new crypto developers in 2024, Solana leads with 7,625 developers, surpassing Ethereum's mainnet. Base has 4,287 developers, ranking sixth, ahead of Arbitrum and Starknet, becoming the leading Layer 2 solution on Ethereum.
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