Important News on February 5:
- ETH supply has exceeded the level before Ethereum's PoS merger.
- Yesterday, the net inflow of the US spot Ethereum ETF was $316.53 million.
- Li Lin responded to Justin Sun's doubts: there was a misunderstanding in the calculation of financial data during the settlement between the two parties, and there is no so-called "funding gap."
- Sol Strategies announced an additional purchase of 40,300 SOL in January, with an average price of $246.53.
- The US Republican Party has established a cryptocurrency task force in both the House and Senate to promote regulatory frameworks and stablecoin legislation.
Conveying the way of trading, enjoying a wise life.
The market's 24-hour liquidation volume is $467 million, with long positions at $283 million and short positions at $184 million, indicating that there are still many people going long in the past day. The liquidation volume at the 1-hour level is $1.2747 million, which means that there are still a lot of long positions at the hourly level.
Including the 12-hour timeframe, the liquidation volume is primarily based on long positions. At the same time, we can see that the ratio of long to short positions is $86 million to $37 million. It is very likely that long positions will continue to face liquidation.
On the 3rd, after a sharp drop, many people began to look bullish again, even expecting higher positions, indicating that the bullish sentiment is becoming stronger, and under the current market conditions, I believe the risk is very high.
On the 4th, Bitcoin had a medium bullish candle with a long lower wick, which actually showed a huge volume, but it did not exceed the volume of previous instances. Therefore, the increase in Bitcoin at $91,500 also indicates sufficient buying pressure. From on-chain data, there is also a sign of large players lifting prices.
After the price rose to $100,000, we can see from yesterday's bearish candle that it basically retraced all the gains from the day before, bringing the price back to $96,000.
At the 4-hour level, we need to focus on whether $96,000 can provide effective support today. If it does, Bitcoin may continue to push upward. Thus, Bitcoin is currently defending at $96,000, with resistance at $100,000, overall showing narrow fluctuations between $100,000 and $96,000.
Looking at a longer timeframe, from the daily chart or from the top position, Bitcoin's price is operating within a large range. If it breaks below $91,500, the situation could become serious, and Bitcoin may continue to fall, potentially down to $78,000, which is the futures gap position.
So before that happens, we cannot make such a definitive judgment. Currently, we need to see if it can form a double top or a range-bound movement, particularly at the lower boundary of the $91,500 range, whether it can repeatedly gain support.
At least, it has already formed two high points, and if it has two or three low points, the probability of it moving within a range is very high.
The strong resistance above is at $110,000, and the strong support below is at $91,500. In the short term, Bitcoin's price has resistance at $100,000 and support at $96,000. As a short-term trader, one can buy low and sell high.
Let's take a look at whether Bitcoin is forming a top at this position or if it is a continuation of the upward trend, interpreting it from another angle using on-chain data.
From on-chain data, we can see that it is crucial to pay attention to exchange data. If the inflow data into exchanges is increasing, what does that indicate? It suggests that there is a lot of selling pressure.
In the last 24 hours, the total outflow from all exchanges is -18,511 BTC, indicating that within 24 hours, many individuals, institutions, or whales have withdrawn Bitcoin from exchanges, which means many are still buying Bitcoin. This is why the support at $91,500 is so strong.
Therefore, large institutions or whales still have a positive outlook on Bitcoin's future price from a long-term perspective. From this angle, since 2024, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has been steadily declining, indicating that many people remain extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's future price performance.
On February 5, we can see a significant outflow, indicating that after the sharp drop, many Bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges again, showing that many are buying at this point.
As short-term traders, pay attention to two points: first, $96,000 and $100,000, where one can buy low and sell high.
Second, within the large range from $91,500 to $110,000, one can also buy low and sell high. When will it end? Until one day it suddenly breaks through the upper or lower boundary of the large range, a new explosive trend will emerge.
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