Why didn't we seize the opportunity with Trump? Perhaps luck is a skill.

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1 year ago

Original Title: DeFAI: The Rise of Trading Agents
Author: Defi0xJeff, Head of Steak Studio
Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: Luck is not accidental; it is a skill acquired through preparation, perseverance, and reflection. Jeff reflects on his investment mistakes and growth process, how he learned and adjusted his strategies through continuous learning, drawing experiences from failures, and ultimately finding his investment direction. The article reminds readers that the cryptocurrency market is full of volatility, and success relies on continuous effort, adaptation, and courage, not just luck.

The following is the original content (reorganized for better readability):

Fifteen years ago, when I was playing Dota, there was a YouTube series called "Luck is Not an Excuse." In the show, players defeated their opponents through precise positioning and operations to achieve victory.

I tried to replicate those moments but failed. Was it because I wasn't lucky enough, or because I didn't work hard enough? In other words, I needed to become stronger.

The same logic applies in the cryptocurrency field. You see others making life-changing wealth from cryptocurrencies and think, "Why can't I do that?" This feeling drives you to take action—you buy TRUMP, chase VINE, look for the next hot coin, and participate in the narrative.

Of course, if you understand how the market works, you might indeed get lucky. But if you don't understand, you could end up worse off than when you started.

I got into cryptocurrency at the end of 2021—right at the peak of the bull market. My first investment was in CAKE, attracted by its 70-100% annualized return, only to lose 30% within a week as CAKE plummeted. At that time, I didn't understand and thought it was a bad asset.

Then, I discovered TIME Wonderland, drawn in by its 50,000% annualized return and famous calculator: "Invest 1,000, and it will turn into 1M in a year through staking and compounding. If everyone stakes, we win together, (3,3) mechanism." The outcome is well-known.

I lost money and learned the lesson of "issuance." A few months later, I learned about the importance of teams in Web3 projects through Solidly. Eventually, I found my direction in the issuance project on Pinksale Finance, profiting from it and investing in Bybit's Launchpad project, then earning a 140% annualized return on Abracadabra. Three months later, I made a mistake.

I invested most of my funds into the Lockdrop and LBA projects of the Terra ecosystem, locking UST to maximize token returns. Unfortunately, the de-pegging of UST and the collapse of Terra Luna caused me to lose all my funds. In despair, I tried to recover my losses by shorting LUNA, only to be liquidated during the rebound. Ultimately, I fell from nearly six figures in assets to 500 dollars.

But this experience led me to a job with @TheSpartanGroup as a project advisor. Later, I started this account to write about DeFi. In early 2023, I discovered @CamelotDEX and other Arbitrum DeFi projects, analyzing and sharing my insights with the community, which caused my Twitter account to explode.

From 2023 to 2024, I drifted in the market, sometimes lacking motivation. DeFi innovation slowed down, L1/L2/L3 became fragmented, and life changed.

Until August 2024, a conversation with @vtes369 and the @ChasmNetwork team prompted me to delve into AI. With no formal AI background, I began learning about retail-oriented AI companions and agents, eventually finding @virtualsio. In a call with @everythingempt0, he explained the vision of Virtuals to tokenize AI agents, and I had an epiphany, reminiscent of the feeling I had when discovering @pendlefi in 2023.

Just as Pendle tokenizes yield, Virtuals aims to tokenize AI agents, which could be a multi-billion dollar market. The team's creativity convinced me of their vision. I invested in VIRTUAL when its market cap was 30M. After the platform launched, my investment thesis was validated. I became deeply involved, creating articles about AI agents and building a supportive community.

This is not bragging; I still have a long way to go. The point is: in cryptocurrency, you must learn from mistakes, adapt, and continuously improve. Resilience is key. The market will rise, fall, or consolidate; interest may wane, but you must keep participating, continue learning, and support others. If you persist long enough, luck will be on your side.

Lessons I've learned in cryptocurrency:

  1. Do your own research.

  2. Form your own opinions and theories.

  3. Reflect on your mistakes.

  4. Participate in the market daily.

My Daily Routine:

  1. Check @cookiedotfun, @Decentralisedco, and @GoatIndexAI for trends.

  2. Follow a curated Twitter timeline in the AI field.

  3. Write content daily to solidify my thoughts and share with others.

Those who turned 500 dollars into millions weren't just lucky; they spent countless hours in the trenches of cryptocurrency, enduring failures, perseverance, and tests of resilience.

Many people see these successes and think it's easy, but that's not the case. The truth is: luck is a skill. It is gained through preparation, consistency, and the courage to persist in adversity.

Cryptocurrency, like life, is a marathon, not a sprint. You may fall, you may hit rock bottom, but the only real failure is stopping trying.

The market is not over. Alpha still exists, waiting to be discovered. The best time to invest is when everything is at a low, and the streets are filled with panic. At that time, opportunities are hidden in plain sight—just waiting for those brave enough to discover them.

Success is accumulated through years of effort, reflection, and continuous growth. So, keep going, keep learning, and continue to believe. Your lucky breakthrough is not waiting; it is the effort you put in today that paves the way for it.

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