Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

The year has passed more than half, and February marks a new beginning. During the New Year period, some fans asked the Master if we are at the tail end of a bull market. Everyone seems to base their reasoning on the upcoming death cross of Bitcoin's weekly MACD.

In fact, the Master personally believes that using this indicator to judge the end of a bull market is not unreasonable, but currently, Bitcoin's weekly MACD has not yet formed a death cross; it just lacks momentum.

Moreover, the monthly MACD is still quite strong, and the hidden upward momentum is even increasing, indicating the possibility of new highs ahead. Historically, every bull market ends in the fourth quarter of the fourth year after a bear market.

For example, mid-November or January of the following year. This round of bear market ended in 2022, so the bull market tail is likely to wait until this November to next January; it seems almost impossible to end it early.

That said, Bitcoin and the US stock market have plunged in the past few days, while the dollar index is rising. This is likely due to the new tariffs set to take effect on February 1. Powell mentioned the tariff issue a few days ago, and the market is starting to worry about uncontrollable inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to continue tightening, and possibly delaying interest rate cuts.

However, this is clearly the market scaring itself. For Bitcoin, the biggest influencing factor right now is not inflation, but policy. In simple terms, we need to watch Trump's attitude. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates until after June, so in the short term, this matter has limited impact on the market.

Additionally, the monthly trend in January is quite interesting; it first swept through the highs and lows of December, continuing a typical oscillating market. The January monthly line has already formed new highs and lows, and we still need to wait for liquidity to be drained.

In the short term, if Bitcoin cannot break through and stabilize above 110k with a strong bullish candle, it will continue to oscillate. Plus, with Trump starting to raise tariffs, short-term volatility is inevitable.

In an oscillating market, such volatility often means harvesting. Therefore, the recent market is more suitable for medium to short-term operations; for long-term, wait for a pullback to slowly pick up cheap chips.

Finally, regarding altcoins, they have basically been stagnant since December 18 last year. Their rise depends on when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. From the current market expectations, there are three Federal Reserve meetings in the next four months, with a relatively higher possibility of rate cuts in May and June. Therefore, the next big market movement is likely to occur in April-May.

This month, there are no meetings, and the only points to speculate on are the approval news of several altcoin ETFs, which will likely remain oscillating, waiting for future momentum. For the March 20 meeting, the market expects an 84% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, with only a 16% chance of a rate cut, which is basically unlikely.

For the May 8 meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 33.7%. For the June 19 meeting, the probability of a rate cut increases to 48.1%. If the expectations for rate cuts in May and June continue to rise, market sentiment will start to warm up, and altcoins may truly take off.

Currently, it seems that April-May is likely the time for altcoins to gain momentum, while in the short term, the focus will remain on oscillation. Short-term trading can still play with Bitcoin's fluctuations, while for long-term, it's best to lay low and wait.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 106100

Second Resistance Level: 104100

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 102100

Second Support Level: 100000

Today's Suggestions:

After failing to break through the high point of 106.1K, Bitcoin's bullish trend sharply decreased, leading to a decline. Since it has not been able to maintain the short-term upward trend line and has frequently broken through, attention should be paid to adjustments in the upper resistance area.

The first resistance is the area where the 20-day and 60-day moving averages overlap, which is an important resistance that must be broken for an upward breakout. If there is a rebound, the likelihood of adjustment near the first resistance level is high.

The resistance at 106.1K is quite strong; if the closing price during the day is below 106.1K during a rebound, a continued downward trend may occur, leading to further declines.

In the current situation, the first support and the 120-day moving average can be viewed as short-term support, and plans can be made for ultra-short-term trading based on this. Although the rebound after the decline is weak, the area below 100K has been identified as a possible support.

The area near the 120-day moving average and 101K is a suitable entry point for ultra-short-term trades. During the day, attention can be paid to the candlestick patterns in the rebound area and plans can be made to short. Since the high point has not been broken, the short-term outlook can remain bearish.

2.1 Master's Short-term Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 106000-107000 range, Target: 104100-102100

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

Friendly Reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen on the official account (as shown above). Any other advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are unrelated to the author!! Please be cautious in distinguishing authenticity. Thank you for reading.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。