First of all, I wish all investor friends a prosperous new year, family happiness, and career advancement. May you achieve great success in your investment journey, with every trade profitable and every investment yielding returns.

At 3 AM Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. Following that, at 3:30 AM, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech. Given the current economic situation and the general market expectations, it is highly likely that this interest rate decision will maintain the status quo, and Powell's speech will become the focus of market attention. Powell's remarks may lean towards a dovish stance, possibly mentioning whether to end the current balance sheet reduction policy early, as well as the frequency and timing of future interest rate cuts.

In addition, U.S. President Trump’s friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies has made the vision of "the U.S. establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin" more likely to become a reality. Long-time supporter of cryptocurrencies, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming, who suggested at last year's Bitcoin 2024 conference that the U.S. should purchase 1 million BTC within five years, announced on the 23rd of this month that she has been elected as the chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, further increasing the likelihood of the U.S. establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is oscillating near the middle band. It previously touched the lower band and quickly rebounded. There is still significant space between the middle and upper bands, while the lower band shows clear support. If the price can effectively break through the middle band and stabilize, it is expected to test the upper band resistance. If it falls below the middle band, it may test the lower band support again.

Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the K and D line values are currently at a moderate position, while the J line value is lower, showing a state of dullness. In the short term, the direction is unclear. If the KDJ three-line values turn upward and form a golden cross, it may lead to a wave of upward movement; conversely, if it forms a death cross downward, the price will continue to adjust downward.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line remains below the DEA line and continues to operate below the 0 axis, but shows a slight convergence trend. The MACD red histogram is gradually increasing, indicating that the previous downward momentum is weakening, and the market may enter a phase of consolidation. If the DIF line breaks through the DEA line and forms a golden cross, it will bring a wave of rebound.

In summary, the current market is in a phase of oscillation and repair. Although bearish momentum has weakened, there are still no clear bullish signals. If the Bitcoin price stabilizes above the 4H middle band at 102,500, it may further attack the 104,000-106,000 area. If it breaks below the 100,000 Bollinger Band lower support, the price may further retrace to around 98,000.

Based on the above, I offer the following suggestions for reference:

Short Bitcoin near 102,300-102,500, targeting 100,300, with a stop loss at 103,000. (To avoid severe fluctuations caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, it is recommended to stay out of the market.)

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, I prefer to provide you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish; the goal is to earn for a lifetime by learning the right approach! Focus on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning your market layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help you, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Written on: (2025-01-30, 00:30)

(Written by - Daxian Talks Coins) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Daxian Talks Coins for discussion and exchange.

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