Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.57 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.44%, which is $2.05 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $215.6 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 2.95%, of which USDT accounts for 64.82%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $104,726; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $3,338.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 426.7%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 40.1%, XCN with a 7-day increase of 368.2%, and VTHO with a 7-day increase of 107.2%.
This week, the net inflow for the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.603 billion; the net inflow for the US Ethereum spot ETF was $139.4 million.
On January 24, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 75 (the same as last week), with the sentiment being: 6 days of greed and 1 day of extreme greed.
Market Prediction: This week, the market has been heavily impacted by celebrity tokens like TRUMP, with most tokens showing a downward trend, while stablecoins continue to increase, and the increase is greater than in the previous two weeks. The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen significant net inflows. Currently, Trump has not issued more executive orders regarding crypto, but based on personnel appointments in relevant departments, "crypto administration" is imminent. The market is still in the mid-stage of a bull market and can continue to hold. Popular sectors to watch include DeFi, and in-depth research reports can be found on “Hotcoin Web3 Research”.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On January 19, topics related to "Trump issuing cryptocurrency" briefly ranked second on Douyin's social chart, gaining significant attention from outside the crypto community;
On January 20, Jito Labs co-founder Buffalu stated that due to unprecedented load levels, Jito Labs' block engine API is experiencing severe service degradation. Although the Solana network continues to operate and process blocks, transactions submitted through Jito Labs' services are affected. The engineering team has been working for hours to fix the issue and will provide updates once full service is restored;
On January 21, the Trump family crypto project WLFI announced the purchase of various assets to celebrate Trump's inauguration, including $47 million in ETH, wBTC, and others;
On January 22, Bloomberg reported that Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that stablecoin regulation is a top priority and that we can expect to see an executive order on cryptocurrency soon. He also mentioned that Mark Uyeda's selection as SEC acting chair is an excellent choice;
On January 22, market news indicated that SEC acting chair Mark Uyeda announced the establishment of a new crypto task force. The new cryptocurrency task force will focus on developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets. Senior advisors Gabbert and Asher will serve as the chief of staff and chief policy advisor for the task force, respectively;
On January 22, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating, "I just called the mother of Silk Road founder Ross William Ulbricht to tell her that I am honored to have just signed a full and unconditional pardon for her son Ross";
On January 23, market news reported that CME futures for XRP and SOL will launch on February 10 after regulatory review;
On January 22, Cow DAO released "CIP-61: Price Improvement Shares, Revenue Shares, and Fees on the CoW Protocol" on Snapshot. This CIP proposes to implement a specific method and ultimately complete the revenue model experiment. The main goal is to continue using price improvement sharing as the primary revenue model while retaining the option to test new (price improvement sharing/fees) strategies. If successfully passed, the proposal will take effect on February 1, 2025;
On January 23, the anime project Animecoin, jointly launched by Arbitrum and Azuki, has launched an ANIME airdrop check page, which will open for claims tonight at 9 PM (UTC+8);
On January 24, Cointelegraph stated on social media that Trump indicated he would request a reduction in interest rates;
On January 24, CZ commented on X platform regarding "US Senator Cynthia Lummis serving as chair of the Senate Banking Committee on Digital Assets," stating, "The strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US is basically confirmed. Cryptocurrency is moving forward at crypto speed again."
Macroeconomics
On January 21, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%;
On January 21, the SEC released a statement regarding Gary Gensler's departure;
On January 22, ECB board member Knot stated that there are few obstacles to another rate cut next week. The data is encouraging and confirms that we will return to target;
On January 23, Japanese listed company Remixpoint announced that it has completed a new round of cryptocurrency investment. The company spent 500 million yen on January 21 to purchase 31.27 bitcoins, with an average purchase price of 15.99 million yen. As of now, the company's total cryptocurrency investment portfolio is valued at 8.789 billion yen, with holdings of 447.43 bitcoins, 1102.86 ethers, 12581.38 solanas, 802,100 XRPs, and 2.8023 million dogecoins, resulting in an overall floating profit of 1.289 billion yen;
On January 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 18 was 223,000, with an expectation of 220,000 and a previous value of 217,000;
On January 24, the official page showed that the SEC released SAB 122, officially revoking SAB 121, which prevented banks from custodying cryptocurrencies;
On January 24, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, increasing the target rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, marking the largest rate hike since 2007, with rates reaching a new high since October 2008. Since restarting rate hikes in March last year, the Bank of Japan has raised rates three times in less than 12 months.
ETF
According to statistics, from January 20 to January 24, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.603 billion; as of January 24, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $21.608 billion, currently holding $21.706 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.123 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $125.063 billion.
The net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $139.4 million.
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025, in Hong Kong;
ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025, in Denver, USA.
Project Progress
Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Bitnomial announced plans to launch a derivatives clearing organization and stablecoin clearinghouse Bitnomial Clearinghouse regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on January 30, 2025;
The Ethereum L2 network Fuel's second phase Genesis Drop will airdrop 150 million FUEL tokens, with eligibility verification and claims taking place from January 30 to March 2, 2025; the FS-1 event will also airdrop 150 million FUEL tokens;
Soarchain will launch a group competition on January 30, where participants will be divided into different groups based on nationality, measuring a new metric each week and awarding prizes to the winning groups;
OneKey Card will gradually cease operations, with OneKey Card services stopping on January 31;
The Trump-supported NFT series has launched the "Trump Bitcoin Digital Trading Card" using the Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin, with the first batch of 160 pieces. Users who obtain 100 NFT cards from the "Mugshot Edition" and submit their Bitcoin wallet are eligible to claim through the NFT market Magic Eden, with a deadline of January 31, 2025;
The ME Foundation stated that ME airdrop users must complete wallet binding and claims by February 1, and all ME tokens must be claimed through the ME mobile application.
Important Events
Indian crypto trading platform Mudrex has halted withdrawals until January 28 due to compliance updates;
The US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seeking industry input before March 31, planning to strengthen customer protections for crypto accounts, hoping to require service providers to compensate consumers who lose funds due to hacking or unauthorized transactions, suggesting that digital wallets be held to the same standards as bank accounts;
The revised UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 will take effect on January 31, 2025, clarifying that cryptocurrency staking (a key component of proof-of-stake blockchains like Ethereum and Solana) does not fall under the definition of "collective investment schemes."
The South Korean Ministry of Personnel Management has requested all government agencies to reassess the implementation of restrictions on public officials' cryptocurrency holdings. Each agency must review its compliance and submit a report by January 31.
Token Unlocking
Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on January 27, valued at approximately $9.02 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply;
Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 19.07 million tokens on January 28, valued at approximately $9.39 million, accounting for 1.91% of the circulating supply;
Conflux (CFX) will unlock 87.5 million tokens on February 2, valued at approximately $13.14 million, accounting for 1.72% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed breakdowns of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space for the first time or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct their investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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