Master Discusses Hot Topics:
It's the weekend again, and there are just a few days left until the New Year. Before the year ends, we still need to make some moves. As the saying goes, Newton can't solve love, and retail investors can't reach a consensus. In recent days, the Master has just one wish: for Bitcoin to drop quickly! The sharper the drop, the stronger the rally during the Spring Festival.
Especially, it would be best if Bitcoin could drop below 100k, ideally pushing down to 99k or even 97k. Why? Because only a severe drop can lead to a big surprise. If the price stubbornly holds the 103.3k range, then no one will dare to enter the market, and the main players won't be able to push it up. A pullback is an opportunity, and volatility is a prelude. Let's observe the sentiment over the weekend and wait for a strong rally next Monday.
I must continue to say that Bitcoin is not only the banner of the crypto world but also the eternal light of the bull market. Some have asked the Master how I can be so confident. I said, look at the U.S. stock market. It has been falling for so many years, yet it still reaches new highs time and again. Bitcoin is the same; it's just a friend of time.
Personally, I have been bearish on the medium-term lately because there are too many positive factors. If the price reaches 110k without a pullback to wash out positions, then the main players won't have a chance. To put it simply, in the current volatile market, the main players are continuously accumulating short positions above, and the price will likely remain tangled between 100-110k for a while. However, for spot traders, it's still essential to invest regularly at lower prices!
As long as there are no news, no volume, and no breakthrough to firmly hold above 110k, the Master's medium-term view will not change. A pullback is normal; this kind of volatility is a necessary path for the market.
Furthermore, many people are hoping for a season of altcoins, thinking that this wave of positive news isn't strong enough, but the Master feels optimistic. After all, the U.S. is already embracing cryptocurrencies, and compliant Bitcoin and Ethereum are the chosen ones of the market. You may not like it, but funds only trust hard facts.
At this point, I believe many friends are looking forward to another wave of the 2021 bull market for altcoins. I just want to say it's a bit difficult. Let's first analyze some fundamental differences: the first is that there isn't enough liquidity; in 2021, the pandemic led the Federal Reserve to flood the market with money, which went directly into people's hands.
The second is that the cost is too high. Back then, DOT and UNI were only a few dollars, but now the space for large-cap altcoins has been completely squeezed out. The third is that the number has doubled; in 2021, there were fewer altcoins, but now there are plenty in the market, and the stories are endless.
Additionally, there's the issue of on-chain liquidity extraction. The main battlefield used to be on centralized exchanges (CEX), but now on-chain DeFi has directly drained liquidity. So don't expect any mid-cap VC coins that can flip the script.
If you want to play now, it still has to be Bitcoin and Ethereum. As for those mid-cap coins that can "pump or drop to zero," the Master strongly advises staying away to avoid daily psychological pressure.
What is the essence of the altcoin season? After liquidity overflows, it becomes a hotbed for speculation. Previously reliant on exchanges, now on-chain has perfectly taken over. Whether it's DeFi or NFTs, they have become harvesting machines. No matter how many stories altcoins have, there will come a time for reaping, it's just a matter of time.
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance Level: 106000
Second Resistance Level: 105000
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 103600
Second Support Level: 102700
Today's Suggestions:
Bitcoin has currently formed a double top pattern and encountered resistance after reaching the high point again. Although it has broken through the previous high, it lacks upward momentum.
It is recommended to maintain a rebound view but be cautious of potential profit-taking pressure in the 107K~109K area.
If it rebounds from the first resistance level and breaks through the converging upper line, then it is not advisable to enter short positions near the first resistance but rather observe whether a higher low is formed and expect a breakout.
Before breaking through the first support level again, the 60-day and 120-day moving averages can be used as phase support and viewed as an opportunity for ultra-short-term entry. If there is further decline, the first support and the area below the convergence can be seen as opportunities for phased entry.
In the short term, attention can be paid to rebounds in the support area of the 60-day and 120-day moving averages. If this area is broken, it may present an opportunity to build positions at a lower cost in the area below the convergence.
1.25 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Light long in the 102700-103600 range, Target: 105000-105500
Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 105000-106000 range, Target: 103600-102700
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