On the evening of January 18th, U.S. time, Trump launched his eponymous token $TRUMP, causing Solana to surge nearly 50%, breaking previous highs and approaching the $300 mark. As of now, it has seen some pullback, reigniting on-chain sentiment within the Solana network.

Another Dose of "Sentiment Stimulant" On-Chain

From the perspective of on-chain data analysis, the active address data and transaction data on the Solana network rebounded significantly after the release of $TRUMP, even nearing all-time highs. The Solana network saw a massive influx of existing Web3 funds and some incremental funds from Web2 brought in by Moonshot in a short period. Moonshot officials stated that after being recommended as the preferred purchasing method on the TRUMP website, the platform's trading volume reached $400 million within 12 hours, and over 400,000 new users joined the Solana ecosystem through its application. The influx of new users reflects the heightened on-chain sentiment within the Solana network.

After the issuance of the TRUMP coin, the gas fees on the Solana network also experienced severe fluctuations. Due to the high demand for transactions, there was significant congestion, leading to a sharp rise in transaction fees in a short time, which even caused Binance to temporarily suspend withdrawals and trading on the Solana network.

Endless Cycle of PVP

Compared to November and December, the only large-cap projects emerging from well-known figures in the Web space are TRUMP and Melania Trump. Meanwhile, the official meme coin released at the top U.S. cryptocurrency conference Wagmi MIAMI from January 21 to January 24 quickly "went to zero" in intense PVP; the eponymous token ZACHXBT, officially "recognized" by on-chain detective ZACHXBT, also went to zero due to its "unstrategic withdrawal"; the meme coin "AIB," named after the slogan "America Is Back," frequently mentioned by Trump in his inauguration speech, had a lifespan of only 6 hours. The atmosphere of PVP on-chain has intensified, and trading "on-chain" has turned into a logic of "running fast."

However, when we look back at the equally active on-chain sentiment from September to November, numerous "big dogs" emerged, with continuous iterations in AI Agent projects like Griffain, ARC, and Swarms; as well as new concept tokens related to DeSci like Drugs, RIF, URO, and MIRA. The short-term "wealth creation myth" may only belong to $Trump.

After Trump took office as President of the United States, the tangible benefits for Web3 may only be the issuance of the eponymous meme token, as he did not mention the cryptocurrency market during his inauguration speech. The incremental funds for Web3 after Trump took office may only come from Moonshot's purchase of its eponymous token, which undoubtedly drained a significant amount of funds from Web3. When the market cap of the Trump token approached $8 billion, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market shrank by $20 billion. The smart money with a strategic vision on-chain was drained, which was undoubtedly a heavy blow to memes. After all, "pulling up the market is the real strategy"; without money, there is no strategy to pull up the market.

Returning to the concept of AI Agents, it currently seems to have nearly exited the "primary selection" stage and is entering the "elimination" stage. Many AI Agent-related tokens that could be issued have already been released, similar to the recent "hackathon frenzy": the phase of intensive token issuance for projects that won awards at hackathons has ended. Now, the market is transitioning from "0 to 1" towards "1 to 100," with bets on which AI Agent will be the next to go public, while those already listed continue to compete in ecological technology.

CEX "Pressuring" DEX, Does Meme Narrative Still Have a Future?

Currently, AI Agents are essentially locked in as the most important narrative of this cycle. AI Memes are continuously evolving; at this point, the first phase of memes: GOAT ACT has basically been eliminated, belonging to varieties that mainly follow the decline rather than rise; while the second phase of AI Agents has become the most aggressive variety during each market rebound. The "anti-VC" wave in this cycle is still ongoing, with the recent launches of so-called "value coins" and "VC coins": SOLV, ME, etc., most of which have dropped immediately after going live, with no one in the market willing to "pick up" these "value coins," and even no one discussing "value coins" anymore.

For retail investors, the miracle of Web3 may only occur on-chain. Coins that have already been listed have to some extent exhausted their positive news, and in the increasingly difficult "up and down pin" hellish market, surviving through contracts is not easy, let alone creating trading miracles. Currently, the very low fees on the most active Solana and Base networks have significantly lowered the entry costs for most retail investors.

CEX exchanges are gradually distancing themselves from retail investors, while on-chain bypasses VCs and exchanges, allowing retail investors to buy good target chips at low prices. On-chain, starting from zero, has given birth to countless giants with market caps in the billions and thousands of times in growth. On-chain is the future; as DEX trading volume gradually increases, perhaps one day in the not-so-distant future, DEX trading volume will surpass that of CEX.

From a more macro perspective, the narrative on-chain is far from over. Trump has yet to announce other favorable policies for cryptocurrency; if he relaxes regulations on cryptocurrency, more Web2 funds will flow into Web3 as incremental funds, appearing not only on exchanges but also on-chain in forms like Moonshot or more direct methods, continuing to bring out "big dogs" and "big events," driving the growth of imagination, transforming PVP into PVE, and attracting Web2 with a sustained wealth creation effect is the sustainable and appealing narrative.

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